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Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Really Scary Fed Charts: JUNE, 'Just' 1% of GDP Now


In my last update Really Scary Fed Charts MAY: False Alarm? I presented two different views on the continued rapid deterioration of the U.S. financial system.

Over at CalculatedRisk they are being interpreted as a “false alarm” in Non-Borrow Reserves and the Fed’s Balance Sheet.

Over at MarketTicker they are being interpreted as evidence that “the system as a whole is insolvent” in Tall Tale Tuesday.

Another month and another couple billion later, the Fed Charts just keep getting scarier.

Last month Total Borrowings of Depository Institutions from the Federal Reserve (BORROW) were around $140 billion.

Total Borrowings now amount to about $155 billion

Allow me to put that into context:
1) The entire Bush stimulus package was $145 billion.
2) The stimulus packages was 1% of GDP

How comfortable are you with the fact that stricken financial firms have borrowed the equivalent of 1% of GDP from the Federal Reserve? (Oh sweet baby Jesus, you better hope Ben ‘Helicopter’ Bernanke really really knows what he’s doing…)

Last month Non-Borrowed Reserves of Depository Institutions (BOGNONBR) were around negative $90 billion.

The balance sheets of almost all financial institutions, whether they are depository institutions or prime brokers, will deteriorate further. They have to. The vast majority of their balance sheets are now in the Level 2 or 3 asset buckets. I can’t imagine that these assets are currently being undervalued or even conservatively valued.

That’s just now how these fellows roll.

It’s Wall Street.

Clearly the credit crunch is far from over… (BORROW/BOGNONBR)

Most of this nightmare is the result of Bernanke’s new, innovative, and numerous liquidity facilities.

Related Posts:
TAF, TSLF, PDCF Explained.
Fact Sheet: Bush Stimulus Package

43 comments:

Mista B said...

Incredibly honest statement you will never hear from Wall Street or the media: "The vast majority of their balance sheets are now in the Level 2 or 3 asset buckets. I can’t imagine that these assets are currently being undervalued or even conservatively valued."

Personally, I'd take it a step further: there's no way those assets are being undervalued or conservatively valued. The writedowns that would result from such actions would put the institution that effected them out of business. Credit crisis over? Not by a long, long, long shot. This will take years. Why? We're talking about mortgages. One can only take a guess about who will and won't be paying in the future. (And I doubt the banks want to make an honest guess.) Boy oh boy just wait until Alt-a, neg-am, prime, and credit card defaults start weighing heavily on the system. At this point, they're only blips on the screen.

DKenny said...

That $150B number doesn't even include the swaps program the Fed has set up. You have to triple that up to realize that these banks unloaded illiquid crap on the Fed, plus, the Bear Stearns assets sitting on the book.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Anonymous said...

Am I alone in feeling that the Fed's governing Statute may not allow nor contemplate these new unheard-of facilities?
In other words was the Fed action in rescuing Bear legal at all? And if it was illegal?
As no one seems ready for the consequences if this is the case it's no wonder no one mentions the possibility...
Was the Bear action (now hinted to be a once-only deal, looking at Lehman) an illegal bail-out of Bears' counterparties (looking at Carlyle Funds outcome in that case) at the expense of Bears' shareholders and employees, and most of all the US taxpayer?
Is this Bush family crony capitalism? As legal as the invasion of Iraq? With facts as scarce and unreliable as to what's happening on the ground and behiond the scenes? With the same people paying for it? The same people profiting by it?
I've not read the Fed's governing Statute, but this Administration has stated that as far as what it sees as the security of the Am. People is concerned it will act as it sees fit regardless of what the Law may be...they will make it legal.
As Paul Volcker said "Why not bail out K-Mart as well?"
Naive me, I thought Congress held the purse-strings, not a GWBush appointee looking out for Carlyle's balance sheet...

Ben Bittrolff said...

Danny,

Good eye! I forgot to explicitly state that these data series EXCLUDE the TAF facility. In my previous posts on the subject I would always add them back in.

Ha! The numbers got so large I overlooked a couple $100 billion...

Hehe...

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