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Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Oil: Rising Bear Wedge, Break Down


I love the Bear Wedges.
Oil breaking down like this will suck down the big energy names in the broader indices. The monster short squeeze in financials is now running out of steam. The Geithner toxic asset purchase plan has been revealed in all its glory and failed to inspire much confidence. Combine these two major developments and you have a recipe for a retest of the S&P 500 lows of 666.

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12 comments:

Leo Kolivakis said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Leo Kolivakis said...

Ben,

I hate to disagree with you, but oil prices will rise in Q2, mostly for tight supply reasons.

I am long energy (especially solars) in Q2 and I think the broader market will rise too.

Be careful because historically, the leaders of the previous cycle rallied 75% from their bottom and Q2 was always strong for stocks after a poor Q1.

Going forward, tight inventories should propel tech in the second half of the year (mostly semis and network equipment.

Regards,

Leo

Robertm73 said...

I agree with the ninja, sort term there is massive supply and little demand, China was down 15%. For the break are you thinking end of the year or next month or so?

Anonymous said...

I´m not convinced you´re right.
Positive convergance in MACD, falling dollar and a long overdue bounce in oil could take it up to 70-80$.

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