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Monday, August 17, 2009

Reality Slowly Catching Up to the Market

FN: Markets are set to gap down pretty hard this morning. This would chunk the S&P 500 (SPX) below the rising 20 day EMA (blue line) at 985 in one move. It looks like the high of 1018 will stand for some time and a drop to the 950 area is the likely first stop.

Notice the data coming out of China is starting to look shaky...

Stocks Slide on Economy Concern; Yen, Dollar, Treasuries Gain: "Stocks fell around the world, led by China, while the yen and the dollar advanced and Treasuries rose as investors speculated that a rally in riskier assets has outpaced the prospects for economic growth.

The MSCI World Index of 23 developed nations sank 1.7 percent at 12:55 p.m. in London, the biggest retreat in a month. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 2.3 percent, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index slumped the most since November. The yen strengthened against all 16 of the most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg, while the dollar advanced against every one except the yen. The yield on the benchmark 10- year Treasury note dropped to its lowest level this month. Copper and oil declined for a second day.

Equities tumbled after foreign direct investment in China fell, Yunnan Copper Industry Co. said there were “no clear signs” of a recovery and Japan’s economy grew less than economists estimated, reigniting concern that a five-month, 52 percent rally in the MSCI World was overdone. The tally of failed U.S. banks this year climbed to 77 last week, while the Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment in America showed an unexpected decrease.

“The rally in risk assets has become overextended as it has run ahead of the improvement in fundamentals,” Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London, wrote in an e-mailed report. “The dollar and yen have been boosted by a pickup in safe-haven demand.”

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European shares retreated 2.4 percent, the biggest drop in a month. A 41 percent rebound since March 9 has left the regional measure valued at 40.2 times the profits of its companies, near the most expensive since 2003, data compiled by Bloomberg show."

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