tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post8000387175429505373..comments2023-11-26T06:55:42.401-05:00Comments on [ The Financial Ninja ]: Watch The EAST Buy The West For CENTS On The DOLLARBen Bittrolffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12465978905157927856noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-40797487414994152002008-04-02T18:31:00.000-04:002008-04-02T18:31:00.000-04:00Ben, thanks!I really appreciate your thoughts...Do...Ben, thanks!<BR/><BR/>I really appreciate your thoughts...<BR/><BR/>Do you think it likely market rumors would circlulate early enough to forewarn retail investors like myself (with funds in US brokrages like Fidelity) <B><I>before</B></I> capital controls were instituted in America? <BR/><BR/>Was there a leak giving astute retail investors time to get their money out before things went to pot in Argentina? <BR/><BR/>Or do you think the US government could move fast enough and with enough secrecy to prevent retail investors from acting to protect themselves?<BR/><BR/>Again, I realize the likelyhood of such an event is incredibly low (I really am not paranoid)-- but I do think high impact low likelihood 'what if's' are a good idea to contemplate now and then.Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-45959853909688852422008-04-02T18:07:00.000-04:002008-04-02T18:07:00.000-04:00Thai,"What form would those capital controls take?...Thai,<BR/><BR/>"What form would those capital controls take?"<BR/><BR/>The same that they always take.<BR/><BR/>First there will be limits. Look to Argentina a couple of years ago. There Joe Sixpack wasn't allowed to withdraw more than $2k USD from their accounts a month, let alone send it overseas.<BR/><BR/>Then there will be forced conversions and repatriations. In the late 1930's FDR outlawed gold and forced Joe Sixpack to convert at a fixed, arbitrary rate to USD.Ben Bittrolffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12465978905157927856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-15094905581874489532008-04-02T17:54:00.000-04:002008-04-02T17:54:00.000-04:00What form would those capital controls take?I am a...What form would those capital controls take?<BR/><BR/>I am a firm believer in modeling 'Black Swan' low probability high impact events... we do it all the time in my field of medicine when we are unsure of our diagnosis-- it tends to keeps us out of the courtroomThaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-69712332314864765772008-04-02T09:17:00.000-04:002008-04-02T09:17:00.000-04:00Thai,I don't think they will resort to printing mo...Thai,<BR/><BR/>I don't think they will resort to printing money. The consequences are well known, far reaching, and immediate.<BR/><BR/>In this information age, any central banks that resorts to outright printing, would have a near instantly useless currency.<BR/><BR/>If they were ever to prepare to print, they would put capital controls in place first. That would be the 'warning signal'. Without capital controls, its just a mouse click to flip into another currency...<BR/><BR/>Globalization won't allow for the wild printing of currency.Ben Bittrolffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12465978905157927856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-74944634062819277322008-04-01T17:29:00.000-04:002008-04-01T17:29:00.000-04:00Ben, do you think the fed will eventually actually...Ben, do you think the fed will eventually actually 'print' money (as opposed to its current policy of swapping quality treasuries for garbage debt but not actually expanding the money supply)?<BR/><BR/>I realize this is hard to predict, but it ultimately is at the heart of the debate between the precious metal community and the deflationists.<BR/><BR/>The thing that freaks people like me out are comments made by Bernanke like: dropping money from helicopters'.<BR/><BR/>The two issues require diametrically opposite investment strategies and one does have to choose.Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-89572743743579355732008-04-01T17:26:00.000-04:002008-04-01T17:26:00.000-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Thaihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00700253024420397221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-37883333698386403092008-04-01T13:22:00.000-04:002008-04-01T13:22:00.000-04:00Don't forget the other option, that nobody gives u...Don't forget the other option, that nobody gives up the capital everyone needs. Then some of our distinguished players will go belly up. A fitting fate most of them!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-54804773632972516442008-04-01T09:28:00.000-04:002008-04-01T09:28:00.000-04:00good for countries like Saud and etc (except Afgan...good for countries like Saud and etc (except Afgan - they got hashish, and that will always be in demand) cause if they don't do SOMETHING, they clearly wont be viable for very long ... they need to diversify out of oil and figs, and this is at least a minimal step.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com