tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post8681987794074225864..comments2023-11-26T06:55:42.401-05:00Comments on [ The Financial Ninja ]: Gustav Fizzles and Commodities FailBen Bittrolffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12465978905157927856noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-75292865210044867712008-09-02T16:50:00.000-04:002008-09-02T16:50:00.000-04:00Hi Ben,Yup, the markets did teeter to the negative...Hi Ben,<BR/><BR/>Yup, the markets did teeter to the negative side. Touche, but the US' share of world consumption/demand for oil fell a whole 1% to 23% since just one year ago. I think that it is understated what a slowdown in US import demand, with its 23% stake in global demand for oil, can do to the price of oil. Sure, China is growing at 10.1% a year, but it's share of world oil consumption is just 9%. The Euro Area owns 13%, and the UK, just 2%. It is more likely that the recent slide in oil is due to the strength of the USD and ongoing weakness in the US, rather than a global slowdown. But who knows.<BR/><BR/>Clearly, today's bounce in oil was, like you said, due to Gustav's miss of US infrastructure.<BR/><BR/>Thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-43798106912077892972008-09-02T16:46:00.000-04:002008-09-02T16:46:00.000-04:00Ben is absolutely correct. The fact that oil is f...Ben is absolutely correct. The fact that oil is falling has NOTHING to do with the fact that the credit crisis is still present(and spreading). The poor bastards at the Fed are in effect playing poker here, but the problem is they have no chips left... AND if the US is foolish enough to launch an attack on Iran or her allies, oil could easily rocket up to $200/barrel overnight. I wouldn't get too overconfident at this stage of the game. I still think we're going to see a big blow up before the year is out, and continuing into '09...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-50107645940914419042008-09-02T15:50:00.000-04:002008-09-02T15:50:00.000-04:00Rebecca,I see it a bit differently.I see a collaps...Rebecca,<BR/><BR/>I see it a bit differently.<BR/>I see a collapse in commodities as a sign that consumers the world over are tapped out... and that we are facing a serious global slowdown.<BR/><BR/>Equities couldn't maintain their bid today. They gapped up and slid all day...<BR/><BR/>Going forward, I actually expect down oil to equal down equities at large. This might still be a few weeks out.Ben Bittrolffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12465978905157927856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-52979775906379318112008-09-02T12:09:00.000-04:002008-09-02T12:09:00.000-04:00Fine by me. The US skirts a natural disaster, and ...Fine by me. The US skirts a natural disaster, and the US Outlook gets miraculously brighter on $105/bbl oil. The markets are happy, too - the DOW, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Russell 2000 are all up.<BR/><BR/>Go oil (down, I mean)! From a macroeconomic perspective, this is wonderful news. Consumers, a.k.a. 70% of US GDP, will feel the relief as money is freed up to spend on something other than gas.<BR/><BR/>RebeccaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com