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Monday, June 22, 2009

Bear Market Rally Over

FN: This Bear Market Rally is definitely over, 67.8% of stocks are trading above their 50 day simple moving averages... after staying above 80% for an almost ridiculous amount of time.

The NYA50R could easily drop down to as low as 15% before becoming oversold. That could put equities pretty close to the previous S&P 500 (SPX) low of 666.

When there is a large gap between NYSE Issues Advancing (NYADV) and NYSE Up Volume (NYUPV), especially after a rally, look out below. This is a breadth indicator and the gap reveals that even as prices rose (advancing issue) it was on less and less volume (volume advancing).

In Running out of Volume I wrote: "Primary Market Total Volume (NYTV) is generally declining, even as the market rallies. The volume decline has now really started to accelerate. It would appear that the market is now rising on fumes... an example of which would be yesterday's late day jam job. These are done on low volume and are all about fixing a closing price."

As the market rolled over, backing away from the 950 area high prints on the S&P 500 (SPX) volume has spiked, increasing the odds that this is more than just a 'consolidation' or 'pause' before another leg higher. Declining volume on the way up and increasing volume on the way down is the very definition of distribution.


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