tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post9125539779549111028..comments2023-11-26T06:55:42.401-05:00Comments on [ The Financial Ninja ]: Oil Crisis and the Blame GameBen Bittrolffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12465978905157927856noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-13315023245765986082008-05-25T19:39:00.000-04:002008-05-25T19:39:00.000-04:00Scott,Thanks for the charts. I only took a quick l...Scott,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the charts. I only took a quick look, but it would appear that non-comms are net long while, comms are net short.<BR/>The comms being net short is pretty significant, as they haven't been net short like this until now (according to you charts). Off to do some more research then...<BR/><BR/>comm = commercials.Ben Bittrolffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12465978905157927856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-77605998085895385622008-05-25T17:57:00.000-04:002008-05-25T17:57:00.000-04:00I am glad that you covered the rediculous talk of ...I am glad that you covered the rediculous talk of speculators driving the price of oil. it IS simply misinformation. I posted a couple charts on my blog trademore.blogspot.com. One chart depicting OI in light sweet going several months back and the other depicting net positions in the various catagories. forgive my subpar chart presentationscotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17925729431261811483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-48755441518638518182008-05-25T11:16:00.000-04:002008-05-25T11:16:00.000-04:00Ben,Some very interesting things you have pointed ...Ben,<BR/>Some very interesting things you have pointed out: The volume in DUG and the price action in XOM.<BR/><BR/>I agree that a short opportunity could be coming up in crude, but am weary of picking the top. I just don't really foresee any sort of catalyst that could cause a collapse (e.g. Gold tanked after the fed meeting). <BR/><BR/>The chart is crazy, but I mean when you have democrats calling for "nationalization" oil could still have a long way to go! (I haven't heard any talk of lowering taxes or allowing drilling Alaska!).<BR/><BR/>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRhBMGFmu5s<BR/><BR/>I am looking for a potential catalyst event in the future for shorting, or just short it on the way down (when it does actually come down).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-34822969619617899702008-05-23T15:45:00.000-04:002008-05-23T15:45:00.000-04:00Good question, what are those bloody fundamentals ...Good question, what are those bloody fundamentals about petrol? Scarcity? Full throttle production unable to feed demand? Does anybody really know how much is left underground? Some geologists talk about 50-year lifetime. <BR/><BR/>On a technical viewpoint, will the market let crude candlesticks hover above the Bollinger Bands? Technical analysts will draw the price down and fundamental speculators will push it up. <BR/><BR/>One thing that’s really making me laugh is this whole tax rebate checks circus. It’s pretty much like that petty thief who steals money from his bird’s wallet, buy her flowers with it and get this magnificent blowjob in return. Indebt tax-payers with their own money, have them buy petrol with it and get more petrodollars in return. I’m wondering who’s cashing in on this, hmmm…<BR/><BR/>How can this help the S&P?<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, I’ve just watched the movie Network for the first time. Shame on me, I know. Can anything be any more a propos? What a great script, 1976. Are we going through this cycle again? Here’s a bit from the great Arthur Jensen speech:<BR/><BR/>Arthur Jensen: [to Howard Beale] "They say I can sell anything. I'd like to try to sell something to you." <BR/><BR/>"It is the international system of currency which determines the vitality of life on this planet. THAT is the natural order of things today. THAT is the atomic and subatomic and galactic structure of things today. And YOU have meddled with the primal forces of nature. And YOU WILL ATONE. Am I getting through to you, Mr. Beale? You get up on your little 21-inch screen and howl about America, and democracy. There is no America; there is no democracy. There is only IBM, and ITT, and AT&T, and DuPont, Dow, Union Carbide, and Exxon. Those are the nations of the world today. <BR/><BR/>"You have meddled with the primal forces of nature, Mr. Beale, and I won't have it. Is that clear? You think you've merely stopped a business deal? That is not the case. The Arabs have taken billions of dollars out of this country, and now they must put it back. It is ebb and flow, tidal gravity. It is ecological balance. You are an old man who thinks in terms of nations and peoples. There are no nations; there are no peoples. There are no Russians. There are no Arabs. There are no third worlds. There is no West. There is only one holistic system of systems; one vast, interwoven, interacting, multivaried, multinational dominion of dollars.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-49937737771168358332008-05-23T12:06:00.000-04:002008-05-23T12:06:00.000-04:00If the recent runup is due to covering short specu...If the recent runup is due to covering short speculators, doesn't that mean the price of oil has been, in fact, surpressed up until they began covering when the EIA inventory report came out? <BR/><BR/>I think a "correction" call is more compelling when traders are speculating long and taking profits. This has the earmarks of shortsellers getting it wrong and getting out of the way, which tells me the price is either going to consolidate in the range of $125-$135 or go even higher as it becomes clearer just how much China is going to eat up between finding homes for 7 million people and hosting the Olympics...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1258979445050968882.post-52210198024551947332008-05-23T10:26:00.000-04:002008-05-23T10:26:00.000-04:00High oil prices have one root cause: The US govern...High oil prices have one root cause: The US government.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com