Even as the broader equity markets rallied, commercial real estate did not. The Real Estate iShares (IYR) underperformed significantly. It has now begun to apparent that the next shoe to drop will be commercial real estate and that it will a large shoe. IYR was unable to get past the gap $28.00 and failed to get past both the declining 20 day EMA (blue line) and the 50 day EMA (red line).
The Commercial Real Estate Outlook 2009 [ HT Moose ] report from Deutsche Bank is truly chilling.
The Commercial Real Estate Outlook 2009 [ HT Moose ] report from Deutsche Bank is truly chilling.
Is it too early/late to short CRE via SRS? Last I saw, SRS was at just under $60. I was thinking last week was a relative bargain at about $50-$55, but opted for other opportunities.
ReplyDeleteI'm not a real estate tracker, so comments are appreciated. This would be more of a short term trade. What kind of time frame do you think we're looking at in terms of a CRE bottom? Would we have legs on a new SRS position?
Thanks all, love this blog. I can't tell you how much I've learned reading through the posts and comments. Please keep posting and commenting.
Yes, commercial RS is pretty tricky, it doesn't have very good reputation among realtors here in Canada, it's less predictable, therefore more risky, but as always - if you are lucky/have excellent skills/insider info, you can do much better with commercial RS...
ReplyDeleteI've been thinking for several months now that the data for the commercial real estate market is looking really bad for the banks.
ReplyDeleteAnd thus the rest of us.
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Great article Commercial Real Estate but investors may want to consider another way to look for commercial investments.
ReplyDeleteI started using BuilderBrokerNetwork.com, it's really inexpensive (I think it's $59.99 a year). Basically, it networks commercial brokers, commercial builders, and commercial investors together. They have a Wants/Needs section that allows investors or buyes who are looking for certain types of commercial properties to post their needs then it's broadcasted to their database.
Hope this helps your Commercial Real Estate needs .