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Monday, August 18, 2008

Equities: Bear Wedge, Overbought, Looking Weak

Oil peaked at $147 (grey, area) and equities (SPX, candle) hit bottom. It is clear, that the fuel for this rally in equities is the decline of oil prices specifically and commodities prices more generally. Unfortunately, the Bulltards have misunderstood (again). A declining commodity complex is not 'good for the consumer' (although that is true in the longer term). In this case, right now, commodity prices are signaling a serious and sudden halt in GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH. Ultimately this is BEARISH for those very same equities currently rallying...

The last TWO up days have been unable to recover the value lost over last TWO down days. In an 'uptrend' up days typically more than recover the value lost over the previous down days.

Sure, it IS August, but volume on this rally is as pathetic as on the last one. We all know how that ended. With equities now overbought (Slo STO), a rotation DOWN in prices is pending.

The S&P 500 is forming the same rising Bear Wedge... only this time there isn't nearly as much enthusiasm. With the Fed donecutting and bailouts pending, there really isn't much left to pump up the debt fueled behemoth of a U.S. economy.

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator (NYMO, line) is currently massively overbought. However, prices haven’t kept pace. The NYSE Composite Index (NYA, grey area) has barely 'bounced'. This is one hell of a divergence. On the last rally, both moved UP in tandem. Not so this time. This is foreshadowing significant future (soon) equity weakness...

The NYSE Composite (NYA, candle) has not bounced this time around as much as the S&P500 (SPX, grey area). Last time around, both moved up in lock step. The NASDAQ Composite (not shown) has rallied even harder. Without participation by the NYSE, there is no confirmation. The hedgies are just shuffling money around... from one sector to another without committing NEW money. Therefore, rallies are not sustainable. Sell STRENGTH.


Anonymous said...

I read my first ever technicals book over the weekend, and now I actually understand some of what you are saying with this chart. Fascinating.

Still, I think I'll follow your handholding for a long time yet before I start committing any money to my own charts.


ARAK said...

Do you expect a bounce at the lower limit of the wedge resulting in the SPX going to 1320, or is the end of bear wedge and it plummets from here?

Anonymous said...


It looks like it's time to revisit the overbought KRX. A number of regional banks are on this list (PDF). KRE was recently in overbought territory and the up momentum of the last month has been fading. I'm short at the 200 EMA (33.80) and looking for weakness to and through the 50 EMA.

Thanks again for all the fresh ideas,
-Mike J

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