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Thursday, October 30, 2008

Peter Schiff vs. Art Laffer for One Dollar and Honor

A very interesting clip of Peter Schiff arguing that a massive, multi-year recession is just around the corner. Art Laffer does his best to ridicule and insult Peter, offering to bet him a dollar and his honor that there can't possibly be a recession coming.

Who's your daddy now Art? Put one dollar and your honor in an envelope and send it to Peter.

Date: August, 28th 2006.


Anonymous said...

Peter Schiff also believes massive inflation is in the pipeline. I know you are a big proponent of deflation. Question: What do you think about what's going on in Iceland right now in terms of the rapidly rising velocity of money as people panic into "things"; and, do you see this as a possibility in the U.S.? Thanks.

Ruy Lopez said...

Now I understand who is buying in this market. How can someone who is trained and works in the industry be so so wrong about so many things? It's like watching someone argue that men and dinosaurs walked the earth together.

Vijay said...

Laffer was asked about this bet later on">Bill Maher's show.

That dude is such a snake

Anonymous said...

Art Laffer - what a douche!

I hope someone reminds him of this video and he recognizes how truly wrong he was and he sends over an apology to Schiff. Probably never happen though... I'm sure he'll spin it and still insist he was correct some how. You know the type.

Massive inflation coming? Yes I believe that too, but I think its 3 years out.

Anonymous said...

Holy crap! Yes, what a douche!

Anonymous said...


That was great. The Tim Robbins comment at the end was hilarious.

-Mike J

JJinWI said...

Actually, Laffer was only confident enough to bet one penny, not an entire dollar. When you look at where the value of the dollar is headed, a penny is about all it will be worth soon.

And they all laughed at Ron Paul and his Economic Advisor, Peter Schiff...

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Peter Schiff's Clients Got Hosed This Year, Too
Posted Jan 26, 2009 11:43am EST by Joe Weisenthal in Investing, Media, Newsmakers
Related: ^gspc, ^dji

From, Jan. 26, 2009:
Sure his on-air sparring makes for some great TV. And his pointed criticism of the stimulus plan is spot on, especially at a time when people believe the answer to our pile of debt is to spend like crazy. But that doesn't mean Peter Schiff has been an amazing steward of his clients' cash.
Michael Shedlock punctures the Schiff aura, saying he's heard from several clients who claim losses of 40%-70% after investing with EuroPacificCapital. How could this be? Hasn't Schiff been bearish during a horrible year for US equities? Yes, but that negative on US equaties was just a part of his overall strategy.
Shedlock sums Schiff's complete thesis:
• US Equity Markets Will Crash.
• US Dollar Will Go To Zero (Hyperinflation).
• Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown.
• Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy.
Schiff was correct about point number 1 above. The US equity markets crashed. That was a very good call. Unfortunately, his investment thesis centered on shorting the dollar in a hyperinflation bet, and buying foreign equities rather than shorting US equities.

Furthermore, Schiff made no allowances for being wrong and had no exit strategy whatsoever.

What happened in 2008 was that foreign equities sold off much harder than US equities, and a strengthening US dollar compounded the situation.
Bottom line: Not all doomsayers are going to make money in a bad investment. And you can be extremely sharp and insightful with your analysis, but it doesn't mean your investment theses will pan out. In fact, there's frequently a disconnect between people who call for doom and their actual results

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