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Friday, October 10, 2008

Relax, Still Building Longs

"This market is worse than a divorce. I've lost half my networth, and still have my wife." -Over squawk this morning

Still have those longs I was talking about earlier this week. They're not underwater by any significant amount.

These last few days got a bit sloppy, but I think what I said yesterday still holds true: Too Far Too Fast, Its That Simple.

I've put up a few of the names I've scaled into long this week.


Anonymous said...

Unless the meeting of the minds this weekend comes up with a plan to "out" the insolvent banks - improving this spread - I fear that the worst is yet to come.

Wasn't there a Hindenburg Omen that would warn of a crash by mid October?

peterthepainter said...

you're a better man than me gunga din...

Leo Kolivakis said...


You got "cojones" but the crash is imminent.

Here are my morning comments:

As panic selling grips global markets, professor Nouriel Roubini - the NYU economist who predicted this crisis a long time ago - is urging world central banks to cut interest rates by 1.5% to avert a full-blown disaster:

``It will take a significant change in leadership of economic policy and very radical, coordinated policy actions among all advanced and emerging-market economies to avoid this economic and financial disaster,'' the New York University professor of economics said. From late 2006, Roubini highlighted the dangers flowing from a likely U.S. housing crisis.

The economist urges immediate action as officials from the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Group of Seven nations meet in Washington this weekend. Stocks tumbled around the world today as the year-long credit crisis deepened, sending Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average to its worst weekly drop in history.

In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 9,000 for the first time since 2003 yesterday. More than $4 trillion has been erased from global equities this week.

``At this stage the risk of an imminent stock-market crash -- like the one-day collapse of 20 percent plus in U.S. stock prices in 1987 cannot be ruled out,'' said Roubini, 50. ``The financial system is breaking down, panic and lack of confidence in any counterparty is sharply rising and investors have totally lost faith in the ability of policy authorities to control the meltdown.''

The world is experiencing the simultaneous bursting of housing, equity, bond, credit, commodity, hedge-fund and private-equity bubbles, the economist said, and even better- performing economies such as Brazil, Russia, India and China are at risk of ``a hard landing.''

The threat of a global financial meltdown means a decade- long ``L-shaped'' recession -- like Japan's after its real estate and equity bubbles burst -- cannot be ruled out, Roubini said.

As demand falls, the next challenge may be deflation as the world faces a glut of excess capacity and goods, he said.

Anonymous said...

Happy Thanksgiving, Mr. B, from a fellow Canuck.
What about that jobs report this am, eh?
Just posting to express thanx for your blog.

Ben Bittrolff said...

Added on the open. HOLY CRAP! I left a stain in my pants, but I hit the "BUYBUYBUY" button.

Closed my eyes, pulled all stops and waited.

The cheering in the pits is wild.

Anonymous said...

your thesis is dead. Three times

Historic downmove.

We go to 780ish

You blow out your positions;

Enjoy your blog.

Anonymous said...

The pit cheering is like the Bengals linebacker getting excited for a sack on the quarterback but his team is still loosing with the score 0-66 at the 2 minute warning of the game.

Anonymous said...

New fall fashion:

Ninjas wearing black diapers

Anonymous said...

Berlusconi: "Leaders might close financial markets to rewrite rules of international finance."

Thats a bit worse than shutting out the shorts. For those of you who know stuff, what will that do? What will the markets do when it sees that musing? I would think folks would be gettin out while the gettin was good.....and was still allowed.

Talk about a revolution and loss of confidence, this now would be a cake walk.

Bloomberg says they're meeing in DC today. What will they decide over the weekend?

Brant, Atlanta, GA

Anonymous said...

In the most hellish bear markets, everyone, bull or bear, long or short, loses money.

Anonymous said...

Ninja Ben,

You're DA MAN!!!

I dumped the rallies this morning with 1/2 of my longs. Will now wait for uptrend confirmation to add more. Tired of picking bottom that last 2 days. You might say that I capitulated.

Anonymous said...

>> In the most hellish bear markets, everyone, bull or bear, long or short, loses money.


If you can't make money in this market, you are definately neither a bull or a bear...probably a pig or a scary cat.

gamingthemarket said...

What is the truth behind the global market meltdown? We are approaching the end of the monetary system as we know it...

This is an installment in series of articles that will explore the big picture and drive towards the purpose behind the "crisis" in the financial world. The goal is to better understand how we are being manipulated, marginalized, and controlled.

Read more at:

Anonymous said...

Be nimble my friend, we have not punged the depths of the lows to come.

Anonymous said...

You need to learn something about Austrian (aka classical) economics.

The BIS says there are $1,500 worth of derivatives world wide, 75% of them denominated in dollars, and most are leveraged on a relatively tiny amount of real estate capital that is rapidly disappearing. A collapse caused by too much leverage world wide is inescapable and currently in progress. Yes, you might make some gains in nominal dollars, but when the dollar collapses what good will this do you? If you don't use stops, and don't start investing in precious metals and oil, you are soooo f*****. You could also short most of the rest of the market. Check out the history of Argentina during and after it's last crash if you want to know the world's economic future.

Anonymous said...

oohhh how cute you cocksure puppy

Anonymous said...

Rebound starts this week...

Anonymous said...

One of you start extracting precious metals from electronic waste now, please, and stop exporting it to ghana, thanks.

Anonymous said...

Testing the 2003-04 "W" bounces? Among all the usual clutter on CNBC, I kind of enjoy Fast Money and particularly "Chartology". The fellow said historically the market has the bounce and then about 6 weeks later, tests the lows again. About this same time in 2003 was the first bounce from about 800 to about the mid 900s, then a quick drop to the lows, then another bounce at the end of the year, tested the lows again in early Jan and then into the bull market for good.

I can't remember, but I think there was more real growth in early 2004 than is prob. predicted now. If this shopping season shows any signs of weakness, can the market hold?

Brant, Atlanta, GA

Anonymous said...

Oops sorry, make that 2002-03 bounces.


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