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Wednesday, April 1, 2009

S&P 500: The Trend is DOWN

FN: The S&P 500 (SPX) failed to close that gap yesterday and was violently rejected into the close. Resistance around 810 held and the probable bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler brought out the sellers. Prices are now below the rising 200 period (15 minute chart) EMA (green line) and the slope hast flattened. Prices are also below the 50 period (red line) and 20 period EMA (blue line). It will be difficult to overcome the 742 000 ADP job losses reported today and create some upward momentum… especially with Non-Farm Payrolls now looming ominously on Friday.

We are at the top of the range and overbought on the daily chart. There is nothing but air all the way back down to 666. All support on the way is pretty weak…

The trend is your friend… and it is still down.


Anonymous said...

Sure is....the "de-retailization" of the securities market continues: were it not for suckering in all of those pension funds (the game faltered, alas, prior to the Social Security Federal US trust funds getting dumped therein), the pro speculators would have no raw materials from which to sculpt their profits.
It's dropping 'cause there's no the hands of the public...have they really been so stupid, so as to strangle the Golden goose?

Anonymous said...

If I believed that, I'd be quite the April fool, if you will.

Josh said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Josh said...

Thanks for the alert. I immediately got myself some SRS and SDS.
Commercial real estate. Do you have ideas ? I am short SPG (puts) but there must be other better candidates
Concerning is the fact the Feds are desperate to goose the market in an upwards direction, especially with G20 meeting

Ben Bittrolff said...

@ Josh,

I'd be surpised if the G20 meeting doesn't end up dissappointing...

Another commercial real estate candidate is VNO.

Anonymous said...

You don't think FASB/M2M gives us some upside boost tomorrow? Holding SDS and SRS.

Anonymous said...

Ben, have been following you for a long time and you have come to be one of the most respected technical analysts in my book. That aside, with the M2M decision coming out potentially favorable - don't you see us pushing higher here on out? The technicals are overbought but would you not throw that out the window with the insane stimulus and market push we are getting lately?

Eventually we will come down, that I can agree on - but the short term (say 1 to 2 weeks) looks bullish (or bullshi*, however you take it :) )


Cris said...

Next week is the start of the earnings season, it might turn to be a rout that starts this Friday with G20 conclusion and US emplyment data. Possible top range for today might be based on you lines around 825-835 od SPX. What if we puch higher than 835 into 840-850? Where your DOWN trend turns UP?


Anonymous said...

Whoops, looks like the trend is up, my friend.

Rich_Lather said...

That was a good April fool's me.

What's next? Do we sit in our negative shorts for alcoa to report? Is the M2M going to be pre-baked into the bank earnings this season?

Reality is short, but now that USG has been acquired in a friendly take-over, it's anyone's guess.

eh said...

Who knows. Look at Japan since the announcement that February exports were down 50% y-o-y. The market is going up right now, and you have to respect that. So hitch a ride on that trend or stand back.

eh said...

Next week is the start of the earnings season, it might turn to be a rout that starts this Friday with G20 conclusion and US emplyment data.

Of late the market has not been reacting much to such data.

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