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Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Wheres the Volume and the Volatility?

On Friday, a down day, volume was higher than yesterday. The day closed as a "doji", an indecision day. On Monday the market drifted higher, but volume all but disappeared. It took five days to recover the June 22nd decline, not a sign of strength for the Bulls. This move looks exhausted.

With volatility (VIX) stretched below the band, a mean reverting snap back is highly probable and that would put equities under pressure.

Volatility has dropped for too long and too quickly. A dangerous level of complacency has set in. The real risks to the economy have not receded nearly as much.