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Monday, November 9, 2009

David Rosenberg: Unemployment Rate to Hit 13%

“This is going to be the mother of all jobless recoveries.” -David Rosenberg

U.S. Joblessness May Reach 13 Percent, Rosenberg Says (Update1): "The U.S. unemployment rate may rise to a post-World War II high of 13 percent in the aftermath of the recession, said David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc. in Toronto."

FN: This is no ordinary recession. This is a balance sheet recession where banks, business and individuals are all forced to reduce leverage even as they suffer huge losses.

"Rosenberg said the recession, the deepest since the Great Depression, “is truly secular in nature” and said the economy is “in a post-bubble credit collapse.”

A 13 percent unemployment rate would be the highest since monthly records began in January 1948, according to Labor Department data. The previous postwar high was 10.8 percent in December 1982. Yearly records, which began in 1929, show joblessness climbed to almost 25 percent in 1933 during the Great Depression."

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