Custom Search

Monday, October 15, 2007

Mess-o-potemia


Turkey, a NATO ally, has positioned itself to invade Northern Iraq. Their military has been on the move for months now, shuffling around on the border. The activity was mostly ignored by the media because it was explained away as just ‘posturing’. It does NOT look like posturing now. (Iraqi villages on the border came under fire Sunday night from the direction of Turkey.)

Crude Oil Rises to Record on Turkey Border Tensions With Iraq: “Crude oil rose to a record above $85 a barrel as tensions on the Turkey-Iraq border increased concern that supplies may be threatened as global stockpiles decline.

Turkish lawmakers will vote this week on allowing military attacks within a year against Kurdish rebel bases in the north of Iraq, which has the world's third-largest oil reserves. Global fuel inventories fell below a five-year average last month, a period when they typically rise, the International Energy Agency said Oct. 11.”

Gates Accepts U.K. Iraq Drawdown; Marines Mull Shift (Update1): “U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates expressed support for the U.K.'s plan to reduce its forces in Iraq to 2,500 by next year while declining to say whether American officials would accept a further British drawdown.

During a joint news conference in London with U.K. Defense Secretary Des Browne, Gates also confirmed that U.S. Marine Corps staffers are “thinking about” a plan to pull all Marines out of Iraq and transfer them to Afghanistan.”

With everybody is abandoning Iraq as swiftly as possible and the US is ‘mulling it over’, Turkey is merely positioning itself to step into the void before other regional powers, such as Iran, can. Mess-o-potemia…

Citigroup Net Falls 57 Percent on Fixed-Income Losses (Update2): “Citigroup Inc., the U.S. bank that shook up top management last week after $6.5 billion of debt- trading and loan losses, said third-quarter earnings fell 57 percent.

Net income declined by the most in three years to $2.38 billion, or 47 cents a share, from $5.51 billion, or $1.10, a year earlier, the New York-based company said today in a statement. Profit exceeded analysts' estimates of 44 cents a share, according to a Bloomberg survey. The company told investors Oct. 1 that third-quarter earnings dropped 60 percent.”

The losses and writedowns are bigger than the company estimated even just two weeks ago.

Citigroup, Bank of America Plan $80 Billion CP Fund (Update2): “Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., the three biggest U.S. banks, agreed to set up a fund of about $80 billion to help revive the asset-backed commercial paper market, according to people familiar with the discussions.

An announcement may come as soon as today, said the people who declined to be named because the decision isn't public. The fund will buy assets from structured investment vehicles, units set up to finance purchases of securities such as bank bonds and mortgage debt.

Other banks may join the fund, which would help SIVs avoid selling their $320 billion in holdings at fire-sale prices, further roiling the credit markets, the people said. The Treasury Department in Washington initiated the talks between the banks after a shutdown of the commercial paper market left SIVs and other sellers unable to borrow, forcing sales of about $75 billion of assets.”

This fund will be called the Master Liquidity Conduit (MLEC). The fund will only buy AAA or AA (Aaa or Aa) rated securities. This is supposed to prevent a credit crunch inspired fire sale of assets in SIVs that no longer are able to roll over their short term financing.

Since investors no longer want to be bagholders, the Treasury department thinks it’s a good idea to organize this bailout. Think long and hard about this: Investors, driven by the profit motive, are no longer willing to finance the SIVs at any price. The banks, such as Citi have refused to honor the guarantees of liquidity they made to those SIVs. Why does nobody want to touch these things AT ALL?

Treasury Sales May Rise 50% as Deficit Suddenly Grows (Update2): “Sales of Treasuries may increase for the first time since 2004 as the U.S. federal budget deficit expands, jeopardizing the biggest bond rally in five years.

Government auctions of bills, notes and bonds in the fiscal year that started this month may rise more than 50 percent to $220 billion, according to UBS Securities LLC, one of the 21 primary dealers that underwrite Treasury auctions. The first decline in corporate tax revenue since 2003 increased the shortfall by 12 percent to $162.8 billion for the year ended in September, from $144.8 billion in the 12 months through April.”

The economy is slowing for real. How do we know? “The First decline in CORPORATE tax revenue since 2003…” Since these numbers lag significantly, you can be assured that this slowdown occurred many months before the August credit crunch. Factor in the recent massive drops in profitably among the largest financial firms that have announced so far this quarter, and tax revenue can only drop further.

As an aside, sales taxes are falling across the U.S. as the housing slump affects sales tax collections.

Meanwhile, over at MarkIt, the ABX indices are taking another dive. The index is defined as follows:

“ABX.HE indexes track credit default swaps (CDS) on subprime mortgage-backed securities. CDS are derivatives that provide insurance against default. Mortgage-backed securities are home loans that have been packaged up together and sold as a single security.”

The BBB and the A are the credit ratings for the instruments that make up the index.

Here is an explanation from MarketWatch (back in February): Subprime mortgage derivatives index plunges

These indices collapsed in February, and then again in July see graphs. The graphs start in July and look like they are about to go into free fall again.

The first chart is the ABX-HE-BBB- 07-2
The second chart is the ABX-HE-A 07-2

Here we go again?

9 comments:

Sneakers hobbies said...

nice post!!
We do kinds of casual clothing wholesale online, welcome to visit!!
winter clothing
winter jackets
winter clothes
ski jackets
north face
north face sale
discount north face jackets
north face coats
men's down jackets
cotton polo shirts
polo shirts
cheap polo shirts
ralph lauren polo shirts
discount polo shirts
polo shirts wholesale

Anonymous said...

Get someone trustworthy cheap panadora to travel to your pandora jewery home often to pandora jewerelly maneuver the curtains, water your pandora jewlerry plants and pandora charms and beads do no matter pandora charms yard work needs pandora charms uk to be done. It's unlikely that your trustworthy friend can have pandora charms sale a home-wrecking party as forever happens in the movies. Offer a contact range to a neighbour or friend. This pandora charms 2010 is often for emergencies only.

sad said...

Die Zeitmessung hat ein Ziel des Menschen von thomas sabo online Anfang an und eine Zeitleiste wurde Ihnen beim Verständnis helfen, wie wir wo sind wir mit Uhren bekam. Uhren haben so viele neue thomas sabo schmuck günstig Funktionen. Sie haben das Datum, die Zeit, mal über Zeitzonen hinweg, und angebote thomas sabo einige haben Stoppuhren. Die meisten Uhren haben eine Art von Alarm in ihnen. Die Möglichkeiten sind unbegrenzt und anhänger kette ich kann wirklich einen Dick Tracy Art zu sehen sein echt.Hier eine Chronologie der Geschichte zu sehen. Einige kette thomas sabo der Jahre möglicherweise nicht in chronologischer Reihenfolge aufgeführt werden, aber ich habe sie so nah wie thomas sabo kette möglich. Es ist sehr interessant zu erfahren, wie Uhren entwickelt haben. Es ist erstaunlich, wenn ich an den Köpfen der Menschen, die ihre Hand bei der Schaffung von Uhren, wie klug und schmuck thomas sabo ketten technische sie gewesen sein musste denken!Vor Das Hauptproblem war die thomas sabo ohrschmuck treibende Kraft der Uhren liefen wurden Gewichtungen. Dies machte es angebote thomas sabo ohrschmuck schwierig, sie herumtragen. Henlien war fünfzehn Gulden für eine vergoldete Moschus-Apfel thomas sabo ohrringe mit einer Uhr gezahlt.

jiang said...

It is also worn by pandora online groom-to-be and indicates cheap pandora that she is going to marry very soon with her sweetie. For getting pandora charm the best diamond engagement rings it would pandora charms australia be better to visit a highly established and certified online thomas sabo charms jewelry stores where we can find a wide range of engagement rings in various designed thomas charms

每当遇见你 said...

Perhaps thomas sabo you’ve got thomas sabo uk your eye on a piece of jewelry. thomas sabo jewellery Who wouldn’t want a lovely thomas sabo charms diamond? Or maybe you want thomas sabo charms sale something else, like a cottage, a boat, or a vacation. What do you want? Does it seem like you’ll never own it? cheap thomas sabo charms It’s possible. Sometimes that happens to people: their income simply evaporates with bills, bills, and more bills!In fact, thomas sabo bracelet maybe you find that your income thomas sabo bracelets is just enough to make ends meet, charm bracelet thomas sabo with barely thomas sabo watches any extra left thomas sabo rings over to thomas sabo necklace put away for a rainy thomas sabo earring day.

Anonymous said...

And morechi iron traditional hairstyles, dreadlocks Dowling moved, eyelashes,chi flat iron tinting, waxing, facials and manicures and artificial nails planning proposal.

"We offer a little bit. chi flat ironsWe guarantee our services and do not want to be perfectly happy everyone. We will repeat free of charge if the customer is not satisfied. If a customer is not satisfied, we will

then recoup their money, "she said.

Anonymous said...

ehicles Department spokeswoman Patricia Klinger said this company features due to the fact cleared up the actual warnings plus the scenario seemed to be sealed Cheap Air Max Shoes Corporation spokesperson Alan Jeffers explained there was zero primary association amongst people problems and also the direction failureThe organization previously downplayed statements from state as air jordan clearance well as government authorities of which harm through the pour has been distribute over many mile after mileOhydratesLAUREL, MontIJUANA, The philipines (AP) United states holidaymakers Air Max Shoes on an yearly Come early july Four reef fishing vacation were plunged into your Beach connected with California during the evening after a display storm air jordan shoes upended his or her vessel, killing at least one OughoutOhydrates He / she offered this oyster tasting, saying to Kate "this is where you controlnet Air Jordan assessments this legitimateness of movie star weibos and contains certified this Radiohead weibo since trueAnthony Fast, coverage analyzer while using Natural Means Safety Local authority Air Jordan Cheap or council, mentioned the belief that Exxon Mobil's Silvertip series ended up being apparently throughout submission having federal government guidelines underscores that those guidelines ought Cheap Nike Air Max to be heightened

beyond said...

black boots

Chocolate boots

sand boots

Chestnut boots

gray boots

pink boots

grey boots
pink boots on sale


Black Ugg Boots

Chestnut Ugg

Boots


Chocolate Ugg

Boots


Grey Ugg Boots

Ugg Boots On Sale

Anonymous said...

http://hbalxb.honmag.com/archives/21
http://corneliamorrow61.blog.com/archives/4/

http://www.us.splinder.com/myblog/post/594556/1199449/yes
http://www.realtown.com/hbalxb/blog/uggboots/
http://hbalxb.insanejournal.com/911.html
http://hbalxb.eklablog.com/women-ugg-ultra-tall-boots-a5409409
http://hbalxb.id.st/ugg-bailey-button-boots-the-planet-comes-after-a5409466
http://hbalxb.lo.gs/ugg-australian-boots-a5409703
http://hbalxb.ek.la/i-were-able-to-press-fly-rods-ugg-boots-sale-waders-jigs-and-so-on-a5409767
http://hbalxb.eklablog.net/ugg-boots-for-saler-provide-a-weather-ready-outside-a5409941
http://hbalxb.eklablog.fr/puss-within-inexpensive-sand-ugg-boots-a5410008
http://hbalxinbin.eklablog.com/putting-on-large-cold-weather-equipment-as-well-as-large-ugg-boots-for-a5410215
http://hbalxinbin.revolublog.com/choose-to-purchase-more-affordable-imitation-leather-based-ugg-boots-s-a5410299
http://hbalxb0.eklablog.com/rudging-via-knee-deep-snowfall-along-with-sand-ugg-boots-a5410343
http://buzindia.com/blog/2011/09/great-boots-for-ugg/
http://freearticlesworld.com/?p=40367
http://www.artandculture.com/feature/3381
http://www.yourtango.com/201195616/kept-actual-bast-stores-choice-function-ugg-ultravailable
http://freearticlesworld.com/?p=40363
http://www.clublandlv.com/index.php
http://www.pleasedontleave23.com/node/14039
http://hbalxb.wordpress.com/2011/09/05/in-order-to-much-more-fashionforward-footwear-as-well-as-ugg-classic-tall-boots/
http://blog.hzfang.net/node/1452
http://www.allindians.com/blogs/business/37330/uk-ugg-boots
http://blogs.bosslink.com/html/diary/showlog.vm?sid=658&cat_id=-1&log_id=8132