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Monday, October 22, 2007

The Ominous Hindenburg Omen




The rate cut inspired euphoria has finally subsided and the Bulltards have snapped out of their trance to find themselves riding the short bus over the cliff and into the Abyss…

Thursday was the 3rd Hindenburg Omen. This little known technical indicator is deadly serious.
“The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis signal that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, the crash of the German zeppelin of the same name in May 1937. The Hindenburg Omen is the alignment of several technical factors that measure the underlying condition of the stock market - specifically the NYSE - such that the probability that a stock market crash occurs is higher than normal, and the probability of a severe decline is quite high. The rationale behind the indicator is that, under normal conditions, either a substantial number of stocks establish new annual highs or a large number set new lows - but not both. When both new highs and new lows are large, it indicates the stock market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence. Such divergence is not usually conducive to future rising prices. A healthy market requires some degree of internal uniformity, whether the direction of that uniformity is up or down.” [bold is mine]

The criteria are quite simple. For example, you can compile your own chart on Stockcharts. The site has the requisite technical indicators.

“The traditional definition of a Hindenburg Omen has five criteria:

-That the daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
-That the smaller of these numbers is greater than 79.
-That the NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
-That the McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
-That new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.”

While unconfirmed Hindeburg Omens can occur frequently (and their occurrence is used to criticize the reliability of the indicator), they must come in CLUSTERS to be CONFIRMED. A confirmed Hindenburg Omen occurs if a second or more Hindenburg Omen signal occurs during a 36 day period. Let me re-iterate: The signals come in clusters. There must be two or more before they can be confirmed. The clusters must also occur in a tight time frame.

“The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash is 25%. The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down, although every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenberg Omen.” (The Past Performance of the Hindenburg Omen Stock Market Crash Signals 1985 – 2005)

Alright then, lets reconcile fundamental reality here with technical reality:
1) The residential real estate market is truly dropping off a cliff. This is a very real concern as the American Super Consumers have finally levered themselves to the point where this kind of decline in their single largest asset will result in irreconcilable financial distress.
2) The credit derivatives markets have seized up as a direct result as foolish lenders and foolish investors alike are left wondering who the bagholders of the toxic sludge are. This will impair banks as they take both real losses and have to tie up valuable capital to bring off balance sheet liabilities (them stupid SIVs) back onto the balance sheet. Capital will also be tied up in increased margin requirements and loan loss provisions. Furthermore, the risk managers at the banks will find themselves suddenly the kings of the castle and are already tightening the screws on credit to protect their bottom lines.
3) As indicated by the declining US dollar, rising commodity prices and the recent TIC data, there is a very real possibility of capital flight occurring from the US. Central Banks the world over have been ‘diversifying’ their US dollar holdings for the last two years now… and this trend is only accelerating.
4) US corporate earnings and margins are at cyclical and record highs. There really is nowhere to go but down. (Despite robust growth in Chindia.) Equity prices are also at record levels and multiples. (Do not believe the ‘equity is undervalued versus bond yields’ crap. Check the PEG ratio instead among other things.)
5) The global geopolitical situation is quite shaky. Iraq has been all but abandoned. The US is going it alone now and CANNOT WIN. Turkey is making noise about taking things into their own hands in Northern Iraq. Iran is still defying the UN on uranium enrichment. Israel is not happy about being unable to ‘crush’ Hezbollah and is spoiling for a fight to re-establish its deterrent power in the region.

Put all the puzzle pieces together. Do not take these Hindburg Omens lightly…
ON THURSDAY WE HAD THE 3RD HINDEBURG OMEN IN A ROW.
Heads up...

187 comments:

streetraider said...

Hey Ben,

Do you think maybe Fridays action was a resolution of the Omen and it just signaled a minor decline? Thanks for the info.

Ben Bittrolff said...

In short, no.
I believe Fridays drop was exaggerated by option expiration. A good post on the issue: (http://adamsoptions.blogspot.com/2007/10/more-on-gamma.html)

I expect more Hindeburg Omens before the Bull market finally rolls over into a Bear market.

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