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Sunday, January 27, 2008

Monday: Bounce or Die, Bearish Engulfing


Monday is a critical day. Its bounce or die time.
Let me emphasize that again: Bounce or die.

Friday left the major equity indices looking vulnerable with a Large Black candle and Bearish Engulfing candle patterns. The indices look vulnerable on all time frames, from weekly and daily to the five day, five minute charts. Basically its bounce, then die… or simply die. The Bull is long dead and the secular Bear is here. The only question that remains is how far and how fast does the Bear maul this market?

New Homes Sales out on Monady at 10:00 AM just might be the catalyst either way...

Never forget, the best case scenario is still bounce THEN die.

5 comments:

eh said...

At the least the markets are very jittery -- very sensitive to news flow.

By appearances the markets have largely been discounting housing data -- everyone expects it to be bad at this point. But the recent surge in the HB stocks was absurd from a fundamental point of view. A bigger downward catalyst might be the failure of that ridiculous effort to recapitalize the monolines.

I think most people are expecting either sideways or down on Monday. Hard to see a non-interventionist catalyst for going higher. Even decent tech earnings do not seem to be enough.

Win said...

Bounce will come Tuesday - Wednesday. Fed is meeting Wednesday, and might cut 50 bps. Google earnings are Thursday. I see us bouncing from 1300 to high 1300s in the next couple of weeks, and then back down to low 1300s.

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