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Thursday, February 21, 2008

Bulls: Nothing But Failure, Again

U.S. Economy: Philadelphia Factory Index Declines (Update2): “The U.S. moved closer to a recession as manufacturing in the Philadelphia area shrank the most in seven years, while a measure of the economy's future performance declined for a fourth month.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index fell more than forecast this month to minus 24, showing the margin by which more firms reported a decrease in activity instead of an increase. That was the lowest figure since February 2001, weeks before the last downturn began. The Conference Board's index of leading indicators dropped 0.1 percent in January, matching December's decline.”

The MOST in SEVEN years.

“A two-year housing slump that has caused the first nationwide decline in prices since the Great Depression, coupled with higher borrowing costs for companies and households, has pushed the economy to the brink of a recession.”

Since the GREAT DEPRESSION.

“Economists had forecast the Philadelphia manufacturing index would rise to minus 10.0, according to the median of 54 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Eighty-five companies responded to this month's survey, which was taken from Feb. 6 to Feb. 18, said Philadelphia Fed spokeswoman Marilyn Wimp.”

Economists SUCK. So do analysts. They don’t have any ‘skin in the game’. They get fat salaries. They’re never ‘all in’ with their own bling. Therefore, they SUCK at predicting anything. It doesn’t matter if it is intentional or not. They simply suck as A RULE. Traders that are off by this much tend to blow their accounts. End of story AND end of rant against economists and analysts.

Oil Falls for a Second Day on Concern U.S. Demand to Decline: “Crude oil fell for a second day in New York on concern an economic slowdown in the U.S., the world's largest consumer, will lower global fuel demand.

Oil has reversed a push toward a record close of $100.74 a barrel on Feb. 20, falling 3 percent since then. Concern that the U.S. is sliding into a recession was heightened by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's report that manufacturing in the area fell the most in seven years. Crude inventories rose to the highest since November, the Energy Department said yesterday.”

DUH. Sliding into a recession? ARE YOU SERIOUS? EVERY RECENT NUMBER has broken RECORDS on the BEARISH side… from Philly Fed to ISM Services. Fun stuff all around. How can you even consider getting long?

“U.S. service industries unexpectedly shrank in January at the fastest pace since the last recession as the housing slump deepened and consumer spending cooled.

The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index, which reflects almost 90 percent of the economy, fell to 41.9, the lowest since October 2001, from 54.4 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based ISM said. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.”

Anyways, 1370 is holding (1368 to be EXACT). Serious tankage is more and more likely…

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Bounce Time, Again