Ok, it’s time for that monthly installment of REALLY SCARY FED CHARTS.All data is sourced DIRECTLY from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Things have NOT improved. Start at the top, click on the charts and work your way down. This time around I’ve gone with more pictures and less words. There really isn’t much to say except for, “Oh SHIT.”
To all INFLATIONISTS: I’ve almost ALL these charts are for you. Each MASSIVE write down is the DESTRUCTION of credit and money. Since these write downs go straight to the bottom line, this results in the MASSIVE de-leveraging of these HIGHLY leveraged corporations. Because they ALL have to de-leverage at the same time, risky assets (from simple equities, to real estate) all find themselves CONTINUOUSLY OFFERED, with NO SUSTAINED BID. This is DEFLATIONARY.
Also, for the last time: The Fed is NOT printing money. Nor will it. The current liquidity injections are NOT inflationary, as they are TEMPORARY and nothing more than SWAPS of one illiquid (toxic mortgage derivatives) asset for one liquid (U.S. government debt) asset.
To all BOTTOM CALLERS: The last chart is for you. We may be DEEP into the RESIDENTIAL real estate mess, but we’re only JUST GETTING STARTED in the COMMERCIAL real estate mess. Banks hold far more CRE (Commercial Real Estate) loans than they ever did Residential Real Estate.
Still want to buy financials for the LONG TERM? (Buying the short covering bounces is different.)
Calculated Risk on CRE:
Recession: CRE and PCE
FDIC Stresses Importance of CRE Concentrations
WSJ on CRE Slowdown
Fed’s Kohn on CRE
Goldman: CRE Prices May Fall 25%
Really Scary Fed Chart Posts:
Really Scary Fed Charts: MARCH
Fed CHANGES Really Scary Fed Charts
Really Scary Fed Charts, Why Bernanke Will Furiously Cut
Calculated Risk on CRE:
Recession: CRE and PCE
FDIC Stresses Importance of CRE Concentrations
WSJ on CRE Slowdown
Fed’s Kohn on CRE
Goldman: CRE Prices May Fall 25%
Really Scary Fed Chart Posts:
Really Scary Fed Charts: MARCH
Fed CHANGES Really Scary Fed Charts
Really Scary Fed Charts, Why Bernanke Will Furiously Cut
Ninja,
ReplyDeleteI foresee inflation in the cost of necessities - food, medical, insurance, etc. combined with deflation in stocks. Non-treasury bonds are a tougher call.
In any event, I see no easy out here. If we inflate, the average joe goes broke. If we allow deflation, ficticious wealth vaporizes. Comfy retirements go down the drain for many boomers.
I'm guessing Bernanke would choose the middle ground, but I see congress taking additional fiscal action. A likely result is gnawing CPI inflation & asset deflation. Bell bottom blues.
The problem is the best solution for average people is to let the housing bubble pop quickly, let those underwater walk away or declare bankruptcy and allow them to start rebuilding their lives and let housing STOP being an investment.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is, everything is being done to prevent that because Ben & Hank's buddies get wiped out.
Who do you really think Ben & Hank are looking out for? You? me? Jamie Dimon?
It's sad we're all letting it happen without much of a peep.
What Fish said.. sigh....
ReplyDeleteGod I wish they'd let this market just correct already. It's excruciating.
They are killing the average American with this posturing. Any doubts about who the politicians are serving is gone gone gone.
Ben,
ReplyDeleteI generally agree with the prior poster. Except I'll spin it with a twist.
The nominal cost of consumable essentials are rising, it is especially apparent in food and fuel. There is no denying this. But it is a symptom of the truth, that the purchasing power of the federal reserve notes are going down.
M1 has not been rising for the last couple years, absolutely true. However M2 has been, and is rising more sharply since 2008 began.
http://tinyurl.com/29djum
The economy is not driven by narrowly defined money that is for a small subset of transactions (M0/M1). Rather expansion of credit drives the economy. Credit is new borrowings, net debt added.
When more credit is extended than is necessary for productive investment, it spills over from the real economy into the financial sphere. There in, it bids up asset prices, enabling greater leverage (borrowing against securities valuations) to be applied, further elevating prices of asset classes. When the asset prices peak, be they homes or commercial real estate via excess supply, or stocks, pseudo-fixed income products as risk tolerance maximizes and risk is repriced, the beginning of the deleveraging vicious cycle ensues. This destruction of malinvested credit exhibits itself as decreasing asset prices.
Bad credit was extended. This bad credit flowed into malinvestments, over-rated RMBS based on overvalued real estate, et al, CDOs of RMBS, CLOs and CMOs and CDOs of the above Os, CMBS, etc. It also permitted leveraging up of malinvestments and distorts the values of of other securities. Credit had reach a peak bubble size.
Because the credit bubble is bursting, does not mean there will be deflation in all asset classes equally. Food will not get cheaper, until there is an increase in supply. Fuel prices are unlikely to decline significantly as it is a global fungible commodity and aggregate supply compared to demand is similarly constrained. If these commodities are not consumed by the USA due to conservation and/or reduced demand due to recession (or depression), the rest of the world will gladly consume more.
There are also currency effects as many commodities are priced in US$. The purchasing power of the US$ is declining relative to other fiat currencies and true stores of value.
So what you have are fiat asset price decreases as bad credit is destroyed and commodity price increases due to purchasing power losses.
tdave:
ReplyDeleteA very good summary. Thanks.
One question however: How do the decreased asset values get reflected in the real economy?
I think if you can purchase less and have less purchasing power, and see declining asset values, a person would normally reduce consumption (forced or elective). But how is this captured on a macro level?
I will also say that the first chart scares the begeezers out of me!
Nice stuff Ninja!
I see where Ninja is coming from on the Fed charts re: deflation, but I am no longer sure this is the most important factor.
ReplyDeleteSure, we have a financial sector and real estate sector that will continue to implode with falling asset prices, but this does not guarantee low interest rates / low inflation.
As we are seeing in the commodity price increases the dollar may be a more important factor. In turn, the path of the dollar is going to be highly dependent on the willingness of foreign creditors / investors to continue financing our current account deficit via capital inflows.
The average maturity of the national debt is approximately 3 years, meaning foreign holders of US treasury securities have taken on very little inflation risk which their investments. As a result if they fail to rollover their US dollar based debt for another 1 - 2 year term when it expires it becomes increasingly likely that US treasury interest rates go higher and dollar plunge continues. This process may be gradual / it may also result in a hard landing.
This is why I expect hyperinflation in USA over the next five years instead of a terrible deflation as happened in Japan in 1990s and in USA during the depression.
This does not mean the financials aren't great shorts here! I am also trying to participate in this complete collapse.
I just wanted to offer my two cents re: inflation / deflation debate as it is very hard to analyze within the vacuum of monetary statistics as other commenters have aptly noted.
So Ninja, where do we hide TIPS, commodities, DBA, PM?
ReplyDeleteDon't worry you mere commoners!!! All is well. America's elite class will not suffer in the slightest.
ReplyDeleteThe truly wealthy could lose 90 percent or more of their assets and still continue their lofty life styles.
Only you peons, you underlings, you willing servents of your economic masters, will suffer in any way.
Just obay. It is your patriotic duty.
Be aware, though, that a typical method used by the elite class is to create or focus upon an external enemy to take the masses' minds off internal problems.
It is conceivable that the elite's figurehead, their lackey the idiotic bumbling brain-addled GW Bush followed advice whispered to him by his betters who knew the current economic problems would likely arise and commenced the Iraq war to pave the way for war with Iran.
If economic conditions worsen expect the federal government, owned and operated by an elite class, BIG corporations and wealthy/powerful dpecial-interest groups to commence military activities against Iran or possibly another country to take your mind off America's internal problems.
Whatever happens, just be patriotic and obey your masters.
And, smile as your wealth approaches zero knowing that the truly important folks within the USA are doing well, your elite class masters.
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