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Monday, February 4, 2008

Fed CHANGES Really Scary Fed Charts

It looks like the Fed took the TAF (Term Auction Facility) borrowing out of the data calculation, thus neatly removing $50 billion dollars from the picture. See my original post here: Really Scary Fed Charts, Why Bernanke Will Furiously Cut

The original chart I posted did not yet include the January TAF results as they were only released on January 29th. I posted the charts on January 30th. Therefore, the chart was short $30 billion… making the real spike down much larger.

Removing TAF borrowings results in a less ‘distressing’ picture. TAF auctions are ongoing. The next one is on February 11th. We won’t know the results until February 25th.

Notice the change in the definition of the data on http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NFORBRES for 2007-12-01 has been changed in the notes to:

Observation Range: 1959-01-01 to 2007-12-01
Last Updated: 2008-02-01
Notes: Prior to 2003-01-01, the data are calculated as excess reserves minus total borrowings plus extended borrowings. From 2003-01-01 till 2007-11-01, the observations reflect excess reserves minus total borrowings plus secondary borrowings. From 2007-12-01, the definition changes to excess reserves minus discount window borrowings plus secondary borrowings.

TAF results to date:

Release Date: December 21, 2007

For release at 10:00 a.m. EST
On December 20, 2007, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $20 billion in 35-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Following are the results of the auction:

Stop-out rate: 4.67 percent

Total propositions submitted: $57.664 billion
Total propositions accepted: $20.000 billion
Bid/cover ratio: 2.88

Number of bidders: 73

Release Date: January 29, 2008

For release at 10:00 a.m. EST
On January 28, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $30 billion in 28-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Following are the results of the auction:

Stop-out rate: 3.123 percent

Total propositions submitted: $37.452 billion
Total propositions accepted: $30.000 billion
Bid/cover ratio: 1.25

Number of bidders: 52

The next TAF auction is on February 11th, 2008. The results will be announced on February 25th, 2008.

Term Auction Facility
Under the term auction facility (TAF), the Federal Reserve will auction term funds to depository institutions. All depository institutions that are eligible to borrow under the primary credit program will be eligible to participate in TAF auctions. All advances must be fully collateralized. Each TAF auction will be for a fixed amount, with the rate determined by the auction process (subject to a minimum bid rate). Bids will be submitted by phone through local Reserve Banks.

Everything you ever wanted to know about the TAF.

Money-Market Rates in Dollars Rise for First Time in a Week: “Money-market rates in dollars rose for the first time in a week.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for overnight loans in dollars climbed 9 basis points to 3.24 percent today, its biggest one-day gain since Dec. 31, according to British Bankers' Association data. The three-month rate rose 5 basis points to 3.15 percent.”

Some stress is definitely creeping back into the system...

134 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ok Ninja, given the state of the economy, you may find a lot more people like me reading through the economy-oriented websites, trying to figure out what the hell is going on out there (the usual blogs I read are political).
Would appreciate if you could clarify a little for me about TAF, or direct me to a post that does.

From the feds TAF FAQ:
"(allows) the Federal Reserve to inject term funds through a broader range of counterparties and against a broader range of collateral than open market operations, this facility could help ensure that liquidity provisions can be disseminated efficiently even when the unsecured interbank markets are under stress."

1) So the purpose of the TAF is to make money available to the lenders when they've run out of cash on hand (liquidity) themselves?
2) Is the TAF new? I also saw a reference in the FAQ that said the first two auctions were in Dec. 2007.
3) Why do this as an auction?

Ben Bittrolff said...

1) Yes. The purpose is to make funds available to 'stressed' lenders. This was formerly the role of the discount window. Going to the discount window however, would tarnish an institution and was therefore avoided like the plaque because it was not anonymous.
2) The TAF is indeed brand spanking new. It was implemented in December for the very first time as a last ditch effort to get LIBOR and the EFFR back in line when they starting spiking beyond the official target rates.
3) An auction centralizes the action and the bidders are all anonymous. It also provides the Fed with an accurate measure of demand.

TheFinancialNinja

v said...

Not EXACTLY sure how connected this is, but I'm confident it is somewhat connected:

Banks out of reserves?

My apologies if you've already seen this. In any case, your thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.

zenprofit said...

Another financial blogger reached the same conclusion:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/02/special-weekend-edition-are-banks-out_03.html

Anonymous said...

Thanks for revising those charts guys, *Whew*, I feel better already.

Ben Bittrolff said...

You should know that rumours this morning (Tuesday the 5th) out of Europe are of Royal Bank of Scotland having a $12.5 billion Euro funding shortfall and clearing problems. Apparently RBS also had to visit the ECB discount window.

TheFinancialNinja

Presvetli said...

How would you comment today's news that banks have borrowed further $50 billion from FED?
Actually, the number is $60, if we look at the report and it seems that's not going to slow so soon.

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