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Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Really Scary Fed Charts: March








In my posts Really Scary Fed Charts, Why Bernanke Will Furiously Cut and Fed CHANGES Really Scary Fed Charts, I posted some charts on the US banking system that can only be described as ‘really scary’.

Well, a new month brings new data. [EDIT: All data is sourced DIRECTLY from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.]

First the usual disclaimer: I am NOT a banking industry expert or an expert on fractional reserve banking. However, I did take my fair share of economics and finance courses and I’m definitely not retarded.

Obviously, things have deteriorated further.

Starting at the top and working my way down.
1) Total Borrowings are up from around $16 billion in December to $46 billion in February, almost a 200% increase.
2) Non-Borrowed Reserves dropped from around $25 billion in December to LESS than ZERO. I’m just going to throw this out there: That is probably NOT cool.
3) Net Free or Borrowed Reserves are around zero. While this may SEEM like an improvement, factoring the ever increasing TAF borrowings (which the Fed has removed from this data series) paints a more accurate picture. Including TAF credit, Net Free or Borrowed Reserves are approaching -$45 billion.
4) The Monetary Base has turned down. That is the monetary base is being eroded faster than it can be replaced as debt destruction continues to accelerate. The Fed is ‘injecting’ liquidity through REPO agreements. The Fed is NOT ‘printing’ money. Either way, debt destruction is exceeding liquidity injections. As I wrote in my first post:

“In the land of economics, debt and money are ‘fungible’. That simply means they are interchangeable and for all intents and purposes the same. Debt is money and money is debt. The sudden rapid destruction of debt (every write down you hear coming out of the financial sector) has the effect of destroying money. If debt is destroyed fast enough, and it will be, then you get a rather sudden contraction in money supply. This is known as DEFLATION… and it ALWAYS happens when a debt bubble bursts. ALWAYS.”

5) Despite lower rates, Household Financial Obligations (debt) as a percentage of Disposable Personal Income are still at historic highs. Can you say ‘crushing burden’?
6) The trend is not your friend. Personal Savings have been trending down for years now and have been ‘skipping’ around ZERO. A ZERO Personal Savings rate is NOT what you want to see on the eve of a GIANT financial CRISIS.

I probably don’t have to spell out to you what these charts mean for the global economy and your investments. Bottom callers in general will be come extinct. Those calling for specific bottoms, in financials and real estate for example, will become extinct first.

In US Banking System Teetering on the Brink of Collapse, Mike Whitney took my charts and analyzed them further.

“Some critics say that he just wanted to throw a lifeline to his fat-cat investor buddies on Wall Street by providing more liquidity for the markets. But that's not it, at all. The fact is, Bernanke had no choice. He's facing a challenge so huge and potentially catastrophic; that cutting rates must have seemed like the only option he had.”

We’ve had our Minsky Moment. Now go act accordingly.

Related Headlines:
Citigroup May Need Cash as Losses Mount, Dubai Says (Update2)
Dollar Falls Against Yen on Bets Fed Will Lower Rate 0.75-Point
Asset-Backed, Commercial-Mortgage Spreads Met `Ebola' (Update4)
Auction Supply `Tsunami' Portends Municipal Losses (Update3)

304 comments:

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Anonymous said...

Great Analysis kent however one thing is a little puzzling.

You say the fed is not printing money however exchanging collateral (that has suspect value at best) for cash is virtually the same thing. If the cash is not backed by something, anything of like value then you are increasing the money supply...until the Fed stops taking in worthless collateral (I highly doubt that the assets being exchanged are remotely worth what is shoved out the door) it is printing money...just not is the classic definition we are all used to.

MS

Ben Bittrolff said...

Anonymous,

The Fed has limited resources. Very actually. (Relative to the size of the market).

Using bad collateral can result in MARGIN CALLS. Yeah, thats right, you could get a MARGIN CALL from the Fed. So don't worry. Somebody WILL EAT THE LOSS as debt is destroyed

"The same collateral rules also apply to the Fed's current TAF (Term Auction Facility) operations, which have become quite vital in meeting banks' liquidity needs. It is important to note that..."If the margined value of a winning Participant's available collateral were to fall below the amount of TAF Advance awarded to it in the Auction at any time before, on, or after, Settlement Date and before Maturity Date, the Participant would need to pledge additional collateral to cover the shortfall...". In other words, the Fed would issue a margin call." -Sudden Debt

Anonymous said...

All fine and nice but again here we are at a "textbook" definition.....

The fed COULD raise rates too but I don't see that happening at anytime in the next 6 months. The chances that it will force a margin call on a TAF participant is even less likely than raising rates as they wouldn't want to be painted as the person who started the coming bank run.

reality trumps theory each time.

MS

Anonymous said...

Assuming that the entity that exchanged money for the collateral has filed for bankruptcy, what are the implications for that collateral. Would the Fed then aution it in the market to determine its true worth.

Thai McGreivy said...

Ben, thanks for doing this. ... a very interesting/scary posting.

E said...

Good post on the deflation aspect, and the fact that the Fed is battling a banking crisis first, foremost, and almost exclusively.

There's a lot of whining about what the Fed is doing in terms of "backstopping the markets" or "trying to avoid a recession" or "inflating our way out of the housing mess" Those are all second order effects.

The bottom line is that a breakdown in the banking sector would be worse for everyone than the alternatives.

Anonymous said...

Are your graphs inflation adjusted? If not it is really hard to figure out what is going on and how far off the scale it is. A dollar went a lot farther in 1920 (or 1980 for that matter).

Though the rest of the economy seems to be hitting a rut, the continued fed support of the banking system has so far held off a true catastrophe. I just hope the low savings rate in general won't be used to justify inflation.

Anonymous said...

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/07/news/economy/Federal_liquidity.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008030711

More lending to the banks form the Fed to come!

Anonymous said...

Why do you say "Deflation will rear its UGLY head"?

What is ugly about deflation? Actually, deflation is very beautiful as it makes money worth something again.

Deflation gives our dollars buying power, something they have little of right now. That is beautiful!!!

Tom Trader

Ben Bittrolff said...

Tom Trader,

Deflation is indeed beautiful. I'm all for it.

I say UGLY, simply because the system hasn't been designed for deflation. It has been designed for steady, perpetual inflation. Deviate from that norm and the creative destruction that takes place is not for the slow, weak and faint of heart. Personally I would thrive in the ensuing chaos and probably be on the receiving end of the massive wealth redistribution that would have to take place... but most people wouldn't be able to cope.

Anonymous said...

Where can I best follow deflation through the money aggregates?

Where can I see a chart of current velocity of circulation on the $?

Thai McGreivy said...

Ben, I wonder, do yuo have a way of looking at the data and seeing if there is both deflation AND simultaneous inflation and the two 'fight it out' thereby making neither look on aggregate as bad as they might otherwise look?

Regards

Thai

Ben Bittrolff said...

Thai,

You're seeing the battle now.

Deflation is occuring in financial assets and real estate.

Inflation is taking place in hard assets like commodities.

The net effect is 3% or 8% inflation... depending on your preferred measure.

In the end, deflation will win hands down because the ceasation of debt creation and the actual destruction of debt is the stronger force.

Thai McGreivy said...

Ben, thanks!

But when you say 3-8% inflation and the deflation wins out, do you mean for some period of time (say months to 1-2 years) we will have infaltion, but then we will have deflation afterwards.

Or that we will have inflation all the while stock/bond asset prices will be falling?

And if so, how would you invest in this scenario?

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