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Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Stimulus Package: Does It Even Work?



The government mailed out the long awaited rebates. The current debate is about how big of an impact these rebates will have on the economy and when. The clear assumption is that the stimulus package is GUARANTEED to work and it is only a question of degree.

What we need is to take a look at similar countries in similar situations to see how things turned out in practice, rather than in theory.

If only we could turn to a country that had both a MASSIVE real estate bubble and credit bubble simultaneously…

If only we could turn to a country that had similar demographics, namely a large portion of the workforce nearing retirement…

If only we could turn to a country whose monetary authorities responded with massive rate cuts, liquidity injections, tax cuts and stimulus packages…

Oh wait, I got one. Can you say JAPAN?

An Overview of Japan's Economy 1985–2000

After the September 1985 Plaza Accord, the yen's appreciation hit the export sector hard, reducing economic growth from 4.4 percent in 1985 to 2.9 percent in 1986 (EIU 2001).1 The government attempted to offset the stronger yen by drastically easing monetary policy between January 1986 and February 1987. During this period, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) cut the discount rate in half from 5 percent to 2.5 percent. Following the economic stimulus, asset prices in the real estate and stock markets inflated, creating one of the biggest financial bubbles in history. The government responded by tightening monetary policy, raising rates five times, to 6 percent in 1989 and 1990. After these increases, the market collapsed.

The Nikkei stock market index fell more than 60 percent—from a high of 40,000 at the end of 1989 to under 15,000 by 1992. It rose somewhat during the mid-1990s on hopes that the economy would soon recover, but as the economic outlook continued to worsen, share prices again fell. The Nikkei fell below 12,000 by March 2001. Real estate prices also plummeted during the recession—by 80 percent from 1991 to 1998 (Herbener 1999).

Real GDP during the 1990s stagnated, rising only from 428,826 billion yen in 1990 to 469,480 billion yen by the end of 2000.2 Growth has been negative since 1998. The unemployment rate rose from 2.1 percent in 1991 to 4.7 percent at the end of 2000. Although the unemployment rate may seem low by international standards, the rise to 4.7 percent is significant in Japan, given the cultural and historical precedent of lifetime employment and given that it was never above 2.8 percent in the 1980s. The official unemployment rate is also biased downward because the Japanese government offers "employment adjustment subsidies" to companies that maintain employees as "window sitters" (Herbener 1999).

The Response 1992-1995

Between 1992 and 1995, Japan tried six spending programs totaling 65.5 trillion yen and cut income tax rates during 1994. In January 1998, Japan temporarily cut taxes again by 2 trillion yen. Then, in April of that year, the government unveiled a fiscal stimulus package worth more than 16.7 trillion yen, almost half of which was for public works. Again, in November 1998, another fiscal stimulus package worth 23.9 trillion yen was announced. A year later (November 1999), yet another fiscal stimulus package of 18 trillion yen was tried. Finally, in October 2000, Japan announced yet another fiscal stimulus package of 11 trillion yen. Overall during the 1990s, Japan tried 10 fiscal stimulus packages totaling more than 100 trillion yen, and each failed to cure the recession. What the spending programs have done, however, is put Japan's government in poor fiscal shape. The "on-budget" government spending has caused public debt to exceed 100 percent of GDP (highest in the G7), and even more debt is apparent when the "off-budget" sector is included.

The Keynesian policy solution when the economy is in a liquidity trap is to have the government lend directly to businesses instead of creating liquidity in the banking system. Japan has the Fiscal Investment and Loan Programme (FILP), an off-budget branch of the Japanese government worth about 70 percent of the spending in the general-account budget. FILP gets most of its money from the post office savings accounts. Once they collect the money, the funds are allocated to borrowers through the Ministry of Finance Trust Fund Bureau and the bureau's various agencies. Much of this money is not allocated to the most efficient projects.

Politicians in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) run most of these government agencies. The Economist Intelligence Unit profile states that "FILP money is channeled toward traditional supporters of the LDP, such as those in the construction industry, and without proper consideration of the costs and benefits of specific projects" (EIU 2001, p. 30). Although this Keynesian approach of government direct-lending does avoid the reluctance of banks to lend, it does not aid economy recovery. Funds are not allocated according to market-based consumer preferences, but to the most politically connected businessmen. This leads to a higher cost of borrowing for those seeking private funds, further distorting the economy. Also, because the loans are often highly risky, Japan's fiscal condition deteriorates further. Once FILP and other "off-budget" debts are included, Japan's debt is estimated to exceed 200 percent of GDP (EIU 2001).

Read the full article here: Explaining Japan’s Recession

In the end it all didn’t work. The agony was prolonged and is now referred to as the Lost Decade in Japan.

Sparked by low interest rates, Japans average home value more than doubled from the early 1980's to 1990 (sound familiar?). Now, over 16 years after prices peaked, home values are still declining and are nearing the average price of 1980.

The situation in Japan then and America now are eerily similar. I would argue that America is actually worse off. The ABSOLUTE lack of personal savings is really going to hurt the team here.

I’m with Mish on this one: Stimulus Checks Already Spent

Related Posts:
Fact Sheet: The Bush Stimulus Package

121 comments:

Anonymous said...

Lack of saving?? We are not just lack of saving, we have negative saving rate!! We do better, we rack up debt!! Our economy is propt up by debt. Citizen keep on borrowing money to spend to keep economy going!

Alessandro said...

Add that Japan fiscal stimuli were marginally productive in the sense that they were used to build infrastructures.

The consumer-centric US stimulus is INTENDED to just be spent, possibly buying the last "made in china" useless item or paying for the last dinner out.

I can't figure out how people can hope for a rebound in the economy coming from one last dinner out!

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Alessandro,

Well put.
One last dinner out.
We'll worry about the hangover later.

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