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Thursday, October 9, 2008

I Found Rock Bottom



I guess I'm off by a few days and few points...

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

understand, Ben

would love to see a poster with all the bankster gangsters spattered all over the Empire State building sidewalk with that caption

dougiefreshhh said...

To funny. At this point aren't we just dollar cost averaging around the bottom?

some big reports come out tomorrow.
Also, doesn't Lehman have a ton of swaps that get 'cleared up' tomorrow.

I'm staying up late and watching how Asia responds. You?

ARAK said...

Ben,

rock bottom is a little under the 900 rock on the SPX. You'll see the rock bottom unearthed tomorrow morning.

Hulu said...

Ben,

This bottom picking so far stinks...lol...

Are we running out of sellers yet????

sev said...

Ben. Fear controls the market.
P/E says 5000dj target.
Lehman tomorrow.
Metlife and Banks collpasing. '
TED spread at 4.23.
Libor to moon.
World collapsing financially.
US debt blowing sky high.
Election very close.

How does any of this not spell capitulation.
I think the scary part is what you expected didn't come out. Lots of traders got scared off today and too much negative news coming down the pipe. This only adds to the capitulation odds.

Anonymous said...

Everyone is thinking the same thing and everyone is looking for the bounce. When everyone is thinking the same thing no one is thinking.

Anonymous said...

It's good to know even Ninjas can make the call a day or to early...

;]

When the Cramer indicator is broken, we're all fucked.

TulsaTime said...

dude, you were soo close, but I heard jesus and Roubini have it in for you, cuz you burned em on commodities a while back... hang in there, jesus is just a day trader, he don't do the technicalfw

Anonymous said...

So are you saying you've "capitulated"? If even the ninja is squeezed out of his longs, who else can be left? Mom and Pop Six Pack got out last month already.

I think we got some new weak shorts in the market today that need some squeezing Friday afternoon after the unknown of the Lehman auction is out of the way!

Anonymous said...

Wow, let me join the chorus of supporters . . . I can't believe how many bears have turned short-term bullish and we've STILL not gotten a bounce.

I've wiped out all my September gains just this week. Fortunately, and much because of Ben's TA, I'm still way to the good this year. I wonder at what point we might start to see wave after wave of fund redemptions and 401k liquidations . . . there were two dives today, one early in the morning and the one into the close that seemed to hit a miracle bid. As our greatest President ever would say, "this sucker's going down."

Wow.

-Mike J

Leo Kolivakis said...

Ben,

I hope you and Tim (Slope of Hope) are right and we get a solid bear market rally, but I fear that it's game over and we are going to have the classic "capitulation crash" next week where the VIX skyrockets above 100 on massive blowoff volume.

I got caught today buying up solars, making my profit early and then buying them up again only to get slammed late today.

I still think solar stocks are going to pop up heading into earnings season but I am out of bullets so I can't scoop up more(solar tickers to watch: CSIQ, SOLF, YGE, and LDK).

Anyways, I think I am going to get drunk tonight but hopefully not hit "rock bottom".

Cheers,

Leo

Anonymous said...

I lost my ass today.
That's all I can say.

Anonymous said...

"I lost my ass today.
That's all I can say."

- same here, thanks for sharing the pain..it helps.

Anonymous said...

I am all about Ninja, Slope, Mish, and Minyanville. Bring on that bounce. I *sold* my DIA puts and loaded up on DIA calls mid-morning today when the Dow was down ~100. I felt good. By late afternoon I was scrambling to dump my DIA calls, and wishing for a re-do on those DIA puts. So I'm puking in the urinal wif y'all tonight too.

Jeff in Guelph said...

Despite (my repected advisors like) Mish, Ninja, Cara, and Harrison swinging to the long side, with many, many good reasons, I am reminded the market can be irrational longer than... you know the rest.
There is plenty of irrational out there.
How hard is it for the US Gov't to suspend trading 'for the good of the population?'
Chin up, Ben. I love you in good times and today.

sc said...

This is how it'll play:

1. Guarantee all interbank transactions (as done in UK)
2. Guarantee all bank deposits (as done in Ireland)
3. Take over Citi, which is the main reason banks don't trust each other in my opinion. Everyone knows about there 1Tn off-balance sheet shenanigans. They lobbied to get VIE consolidation delayed and won. No MTM makes them trust each other less not more.
4. Fed funds cut to 0%
5. Tsy buys S&P futures on open market (as done in HK years ago)
6. Close the stock market (as done in Russia, Iceland)
7. Revolution when Bernake says "Let them buy bonds"

Noble said...

Methinks history in the making tomorrow. There is MS, Met, Leh setl, Bush, Asia currently crashing yadda, yadde, yadda...

Oct 10th 2008 - the new black friday

I fucking hope I am wrong

Steely Dan said...

When Black Friday comes
I'll stand down by the door
And catch the gray men
When they dive from the fourteenth floor
When Black Friday comes
I'll collect everything I'm owed
And before my friends find out
I'll be on the road
When Black Friday falls you know it's got to be
Don't let it fall on me....

Anonymous said...

can we get a post on what capitulation is? for the newbs

VVi11y said...

Asia still puking it's guts out.
Before this is done the whole world will be doing dry heaves - nothing but bile.

All cash for months - smart enough to know I'm not smart enough to know what's going on

Scott said...

DO YOU REALLY WANT TO KNOW CAPITULATION??


Ok, the absolutely best definition of CAPITULATION is here:

http://zentrader.ca/blog/?p=426

I needed that. :-)

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