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Thursday, December 18, 2008

Greenspan Sees Market Rebound

I trust Alan 'The Maestro' Greenspan! He knows what he's talking about...

Oh wait.

He didn't see the tech bubble...

He helped cause the Real Estate bubble by cutting and leaving rates near 1%...

He encouraged the move into variable rate and exotic mortgages by Joe Sixpack...

He didn't see the real estate bubble...

He didn't see the credit bubble...

He didn't see the derivatives bubble...

But he can see equities rebounding.

Yech...

Greenspan Says Financial Markets May Rebound in 6 to 12 Months: "Financial markets, which have been depressed by “fear” not seen since at least the 1930s, are likely to rebound in the next six to 12 months, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a commentary published by The Economist online.

“Markets are being suppressed by a degree of fear not experienced since the early 20th century (1907 and 1932 come to mind),” Greenspan said in the commentary. “Human nature being what it is, we can count on a market reversal, hopefully, within six months to a year.”

A stabilization in home prices, which will allow financial institutions to judge the value of collateral underlying mortgages and mortgage-backed securities, is likely in 2009 and is another “critical piece” to ending the turmoil, the former Fed chairman said.

The Treasury’s $250 billion in investments in the equity of American banks has halved the gap between the London Interbank Offered Rate and the overnight index swap rate, an indication of progress, Greenspan said.

“While helpful, the Treasury’s $250 billion goes only partway towards the levels required to support renewed lending,” he said. “Temporary public capital injections into banks” should help lead to stability and “arguably provide far more benefit per dollar than conventional fiscal stimulus.”"

I too believe we'll bounce significantly... but only to dive into abyss after.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

i can see someone hasnt been drinking their cool aid.

dont worry, in the not to distant future it will be mandated. maybe we will slip it in with some required medical checkups (if you want our spiffy universal healthcare coverage)

Anonymous said...

We've already bounced from DOW 7,400 to DOW 9,000. That's a 22% bounce. Not too shabby.

wunsacon said...

>> required medical checkups (if you want our spiffy universal healthcare coverage)

It's probably already in our water supplies, which municipalities are avoiding checking.

I kid...

Dimezzano said...

to put it boldly, may I say ...... why not ???
it's all a matter of confidence and confidence might come again ....
and will come again ....
dare I give an advice to Mr Obama : why not choose Mr Madoff or Mr Ponzi to take the office after Mr Paulson ? If they can't or don't want the job they might, anyway, give you a name, or, last but not least, some "expert's teaching hour" on "how to give confidence", special bonuses "quick renewal" and "almost everything has failed".
Yours sincerelly, etc....

SPECTRE of Deflation said...

Well I see the ghost of the 1873 Panic which is much closer to the truth than the lying sack of crap formally called the maestro.

Anonymous said...

Yeah. In the 1930's US military spending by the Fed Gov was next to nothing.
That's very different today.
Does this imply differences to solving this economic situation this time around? Military spending of any relevance to US financial situation today?

Tord Steiro said...

To Ninja of the Ninja's:

I picked up some webchatter indicating that the Bank of Israel is now buying foreign currencies in order to depreciate the Shekel, hence making demand for Israeli goods stronger.

Then, I wonder, what will happen if the FED starts selling $, the ECB starts selling €, the Bank of England starts selling £, and so on and on and on and on...

As far as I can understand, that will inevitably result in a full stop of forex markets, and hence a Depression-style end to international trade, imposing huge static inefficiencies on already crumbling economies.

As we are already seeing "cheating" to the idea of a global fiscal stimulus, is this simply 21th century style "beggar thy neighbour" policy? I suggest yes...

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