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Sunday, January 11, 2009

Really Scary Fed Charts: The Master Plan



The M1 money multiplier (MULT) has gone into free fall and is now below 1. Translation: Now each $1 increase in the monetary base (AMBNS) results in the money supply increasing by LESS than $1. This is further evidence of OBSCENE hoarding by the banks.

The Federal Reserve is desperately attempting to increase the monetary base (AMBNS) by injecting liquidity into the banking system via additional reserves. The banks on the other hand are stockpiling this liquidity as excess reserves (EXCRESNS) and therefore not passing it on.

The monetary base has exploded because of excess reserves have exploded. On January 2009 the monetary base was $1 692.63 billion and excess reserves $767.42 billion. Subtracting excess reserves from the monetary base would result in a base of $925.21 billion. This number is very nearly inline with the level ($870.99 billion) and rate of change (1%) of the monetary base prior to the implementation of the Quantitative Easing policy.

The velocity of money is collapsing.

The Quantity Theory of Money holds the following:

“The determinants and consequent stability of the velocity of money are a subject of controversy across and within schools of economic thought. Those favoring a quantity theory of money have tended to believe that, in the absence of inflationary or deflationary expectations, velocity will be technologically determined and stable, and that such expectations will not generally arise without a signal that overall prices have changed or will change.”

M * V = P * Q

M is the total amount of money in circulation in an economy during the period.
V is the velocity of money in final expenditures.
Q is an index of the real value of final expenditures.
P is the price level associated with transactions for the economy during the period.

Example (1):

Let’s do some simple math:
M = $100. That is all the money in this economy.
V = 2. This economy turns things over fairly briskly.
Q = $100. This is the real value of all the stuff produced by this economy.

To solve for P we must re-arrange the formula:

P = (M * V) / Q
P = ( $100 * 2) / $100
P = 2

In this simple test economy the velocity of money has resulted in a doubling of the price level (P). Therefore, inflation is 100%. The money moves so fast in this economy that it creates the PERCEPTION that there are really $200 dollars in this economy chasing $100 dollars of real value and the goods and services are end up trading accordingly… at inflated prices!

Now let’s crash the velocity of money, but leave EVERYTHING else the same. Ceteris Paribus.
Example (2):

M = $100. That is all the money in this economy.
V = 1. This economy turns things over much more slowly now.
Q = $100. This is the real value of all the stuff produced by this economy.

P = (M * V) / Q
P = ( $100 * 1) / $100
P = 1

Simply by reducing the velocity of money we have reduced the price level (P). In this economy there is now ZERO inflation!

The Ivory Tower Academics over at the Federal Reserve know this all too well…

After a credit bubble AND asset price bubble of obscene proportions the Federal Reserve is desperately seeking to avoid deflation at all costs. They cannot bear contemplating the consequences of deflation on the enormous debt left behind.

The Federal Reserve has very little direct control over the velocity of money (V). They can only encourage the faster turnover of money and not coerce it. The usual trick is to cut rates and provide liquidity. However, when economic agents are stuffed, they’re stuffed. It’s that simple. If economic agents can’t find a profitable way to deploy these funds, they will simply refuse to do so… zero interest rates and ample liquidity be damned!

Since the main objective is to prevent deflation first and cause inflation second, the Federal Reserve must maintain and even increase the general price level in the economy (P).

The Federal Reserve is the monopoly provider of money (M). Having direct control over this variable allows them to manipulate it at will. They can do all sorts of fancy stuff, but in the end all they’re doing is digitally “printing” money.

Now let’s double the amount of money (M) in the economy from the previous example (2), Ceteris Paribus.

Example (3):

M = $200. That is all the money in this economy.
V = 1. This economy turns things over much more slowly.
Q = $100. This is the real value of all the stuff produced by this economy.

P = (M * V) / Q
P = ( $200 * 1) / $100
P = 2

Doubling the money supply to $200 brings the price level (P) back to the original level when the velocity of money (V) was higher as in the first example (1).

The real world of course is much more complex. We do know that the velocity of money (V) has cratered as can be seen in such variables as MULT. The Federal Reserve is clearly trying to pick up the slack by increasing the supply of money as can be seen in such variables as AMBNS.

However, it STILL isn’t nearly that simple. The Federal Reserve creates what is called High Powered Money. For that money to be useful it needs to be transmitted into the economy. If the transmission mechanisms don’t work, it is utterly useless. Bank hoarding on a grand scale is just such a failure to transmit. Printing without transmission cannot result in inflation. (ZERO velocity = ZERO money)

FUN FACT: Ben “Helicopter” Bernanke is well aware of this problem. In a famous speech he posited that to circumvent this problem all the Federal Reserve had to do was employ “A money-financed tax cut [which] is essentially equivalent to Milton Friedman's famous “helicopter drop” of money.” Basically print money to finance a tax cut. This immediately puts money directly into the hands of consumers. Hence the famous nickname “Helicopter Ben”.

To make matters worse technology and financial innovation has resulted in what is now referred to as the Shadow Banking System. Since money and debt are fungible, that is to say that money is debt and debt is money, non-bank financial institutions were able to borrow, leverage up and then lend out on the grandest scale ever in human history. With such financial innovations as securitizations, new accounting gimmicks such as off balance sheet accounting, and new vehicles such as structured investment vehicles, this system literally PRINTED money! The broadest measures of money supply increased dramatically.

As part of the current de-leveraging of the ENTIRE financial system this money is being DESTROYED as they are called in and liquidated or go into outright default. This has the added consequence of smashing the very asset prices the shadow banking system used as collateral.

The Federal Reserve is therefore also in the race to merely REPLACE the amount of money (M) being destroyed as the shadow banking system implodes. To actually increase the money supply AND make up for the reduction in money velocity (V) the Federal Reserve has to print AND transmit truly astronomical amounts of money.

This is a race no central bank can win. Deflation cannot be avoided. Unfortunately, neither can the ultimate tsunami of inflation that will sweep across the globe after.

There you have it. The Federal Reserve Master Plan: Print money to offset collapsing velocity and the money/debt currently being destroyed and transmit it at all costs to keep asset prices from falling.

DEFINITIONS:

M1 Money Stock (M1): The sum of currency held outside the vaults of depository institutions, Federal Reserve Banks, and the U.S. Treasury; travelers checks; and demand and other checkable deposits issued by financial institutions (except demand deposits due to the Treasury and depository institutions), minus cash items in process of collection and Federal Reserve float.

Adjusted Monetary Base (AMBNS): The sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a,b, 2001, 2003).

M1 Money Multiplier (MULT): The M1 multiplier is the ratio of M1 to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base.

155 comments:

hector said...

Excellent Post

Zen said...

Very good post. I don't know if you read John Mauldin, but he discussed the problem with the velocity of money (or lack thereof) right now a couple months back. www.frontlinethoughts.com

As always, thanks for the blog!!

michael said...

Thanks for the great post.
I have never looked at up-leveraging to be like "become a bank"

Irrational Doomsday Blog said...

I concur with this analysis, great post.

I guess the follow up here is, knowing what they know, is the fed and the government trying to grow the money supply when it isn't getting into the economy- ie pushing the string so hard- that when deflation eventually does lead to the runaway inflation scenario, they will be able to finally get out from under the debt burden?

Do you think that's the plan for paying down the debt? Devalue the dollar until the debt isn't unsustainable?

Obviously it's not politically likely to do something more rational like raise taxes or curb entitlements and government programs- painful yes, but a lot less painful than runaway inflation.

Doug said...

So how can we predict when the inflation tsunami will hit?

DiverCity said...

Fantastic explanation of the deflationary problem we're now experiencing. We experience the inflationary tsunami when the velocity of money heats up. But I suspect, Doug, that you already knew that and like me would like to time the transition just right. Timing it just right would most likely be the result of luck more than anything else. One would have to look for evidence that banks are lending, borrowers are borrowing and consumers are spending. In any event, when it does hit, massive inflation, coupled with an extreme loss of confidence in the currency, could spell the doom of our financial system and very trying times for social cohesiveness.

Ben Bittrolff said...

DiverCity,

I think you nailed it there. I'm working on discovering the proper indicators to help with the timing...

Deflation first. Inflation second.

Now we just have to flip the trade at the right time.

Anonymous said...

So as suspected the money supply was in effect "privatized" to thieves, liars and fly-by-nights...the so-called 'shadow' economy. Now the real economy it appears has to fix the damage done, that is , make good the balance.
OTOH perhaps the price of money is a lagging indicator?
Anyway who without income needs a tax cut? Stuffing bankers with cash like they were fois-gras geese does not help the an unemployed citizen/subject/peon pay the food/housing/doctor/school bills. Nor will it encourage the provision of more such services to the unemployed by the State, or it would seem by anyone else.

Irrational Doomsday Blog said...

Good luck, I'll be reading for the consensus that forms for the indicators.

Historically, runaway inflation can take off in a matter of days, so good luck. The best data would be from the fed charts, but that's not published regularly enough to time anything.

I guess I'll primarily be watching the Treasuries for rates to go up or for the gov't to start struggling with keeping their target rate down. And other factors which would appear to signal a recovery but would be too good to be true- housing recovery, big moves up in the market, big earnings revisions up, etc.

Rimu said...

You are the man. Summed it up in one epic post. Thank you!

Greenlander said...

Ben,
You are a madman. But I mean that in the best sense of the word.
You have great instinct.

I do think that interest rates will have to bottom out worldwide and gov't sponsorship of debt get maxed out before this inflationary scenario would unfold. At that pt ppl will start assessing who is the worst of the bunch as we would all be on a level playing field, so to speak..

Anonymous said...

This analysis does not mention the fact that the FED is now paying interest on reserves and excess reserves, a major factor in the banks leaving the excess reserves on deposit at the FED - they still count towards capital and earn interest at the same time, more than short-term treasuries. This may be the indicator to watch - it appears to be the mechanism by which they sterilize (keep from flowing through to loans) substantially all of the swapped MBSes, etc. (which are what allows the FED to pay the interest in the first place_

Any of you who know local bankers know that this problem at that level is one of a dearth of qualified borrowers. For the banks that really need the help (C, JPM, GS, MS, etc, to clean up level 3 assets) the hedge funds suffice.

Anonymous said...

If the Fed and Treasury need to get the money out into the real economy, and get people spending and buying, they should just retire everyone's debt by printing the money and handing it out. Treasury could audit everyone's debt profile (like filing a 1040 for your annual income audit) and then pay off a percentage of the debt. This would cause prices to rise and get people spending again.

It would also severely punish savers, and is fundamentally unfair, but what they're doing now is just as unjust, and also lacks the benefit of actually having the desired effect of getting the economy moving.

I believe some societies have had "jubilee" periods where all debts are cancelled, or similar. This will happen anyway in our case, when the dollar crashes in a bout of hyperinflation.

One way or another, we will end up returning to asset based money (e.g. gold or silver) instead of the current fiat debt based currency. No one group can be trusted with the monopoly power to create unlimited amounts of money. People are too prone to corruption and ignorance to effectively administer such a fiat currency system.

Think about it: If you had the legal right to a money printing press in your basement, could you restrain yourself? No? Well, neither can the combination of the government and the Federal Reserve.

zen_realized said...

My answer to the financial crisis is that the government needs to increase immigration on a large scale. This immigration should be targeted to people that are likely to bring money with them like college graduates. This has the added benifit if done right of solving the social security and medicare problems if the age groups are in the 18-34 range by increasing the number of payers into the system. Essentially what the government would be doing is importing assets as each additonal person increases the size of the economy and results in a positive economic result which is way higher than the cost to import them. It also solves the problem of moral hazard because investments here are actually better economically than unemployment benifits and result in benifits for every single person in the economy. You could argue that each person imported now is worth 10x their initial cost in added asset appreciation and volocity benifit. If people who brought assets with(college degree,cash,etc) the benifit could be as high as 20x. If you spend 50 billion on immigration you get 1 trillion in value and that value goes up the more people you let it now. 30 million immigrants would be ideal after that the benifit starts to level off and eventually decreases.

Anonymous said...

I think the downward trend in this ratio is driven by sweep accounts. http://research.stlouisfed.org/aggreg/swdata.html

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