What? No panic? Bring it! (Without panic you can't trust the low to be a bottom.)
Cobra's Market View: Still No Panic
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Boring! No Panic
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What? No panic? Bring it! (Without panic you can't trust the low to be a bottom.)
Cobra's Market View: Still No Panic
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13 comments:
Why panic?
So that bankers flush with taxpayer's cash can buy stuff up cheap cheap cheap?
The people with income who have not yet sold, won't.
people without income, don't hold equities anyway.
The (now-publicly-owned) big NYC banks will lead the selling: but the herd won't follow. Not this time.
Watch for weakness in Treasuries, soon.
Even in October/November, it was the hedge funds, not the public/retail guys, who sold off in (co-ordinated?) unison to drive the market lower.
So do you think the market is going much lower? Or are you on the side of Leuthold.
Here's what you, Slope and Evil are missing...
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/03/possibility-of-stealth-bottom.html
My comment on *why* is fifth in the comments there.
Those Panic selling did occur in Nov 2008, the reason: Forced liquidation.
No forced liquidation this time Ninja. One problem do disturb me is those FXXKING Zombie Banks!
I want to share you a link however:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/twelve-year-lows/
I suspect we won't see a panic low until after the quarterly expiration of derivatives.
That should happen after the government's machination during expiration week sends the market higher to shake out the shorts and fake out the bulltards.
I suppose this comment qualifies as speculative timing analysis rather than technical analysis.
Peter Pan
Yes I am sure that the stimulus starting to kick in early April will add to the panic.
Personally, I'm sensing a panic developing amongst some over a lack of panic....
It looks like were in a pattern here of 3-5 down days followed by a small rally day, then back down she goes.
stealth, 'non-capitulation' 2002 nasdaq bottom: see (green line)
http://www.dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif
Just wait for the inevitable civil war in Pakistan to break out - that will cause some angst; the troops then having to shoot their way out across Asia will be what causes the Fear - especially if someone decide that this would be a grand occasion to bust a nuclear cap in somebody's ass ... for olde times sake.
Ninja:
I told you Armageddon will wait until Easter ;)
I agree with those who fear the events in early April, besides, there will happen more on the geopolitical stage at that time too.
And I guess the market will finally, sometime in April, have digested the impact of the big3 going out of business, the European Banks lossess in Eastern Europe, and abrupt economic backlashes in the West Balkans, which is by the way much overdue.
To add some flavour, the 6 week limit on forming a new Israeli government expires in April too, so expect some volatility in that region as well.
as you see, my hunch tells me March will be a silent month, but it's only silence before the storm. And by the end of April, I get we'll have a pretty good clue about how bad the storm will be.
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