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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Generational Storm and Ethnic Storm

FN: I've posted about demographics from a variety of different angles. There's the "Generational Storm" argument, which I presented in the post Age Wave Theory: Expect a Long Economic Winter. Then there is the "Ethnic Storm" argument, which I presented in three posts: 1) Hyperinflation First, then Global War, 2) Global Violence, Gold: But Not Yet, 3) Global Protests, Riots, Violence as Economies Unravel.

Some countries face just one of the two demographic problems, such as Japan.

Others face both problems simultaneously. Britain, Germany, Russia and quite a few of the Baltic states must struggle with both. Already elections in Britain, Germany, Hungary, Austria, Romania, Ukraine and France have resulted in, or are projecting scary shifts to the fringe right (as defined by autocratic, xenophobic policies). This is a result of rapidly imploding economies... which ironically are the result of rapidly imploding demographics. The "graying populations" and ridiculously low birth rates of these major economies played no small part in finally ending this massive global credit bubble.

Edward Hugh over at Fistfuls of Euros a detailed "Generational Storm" argument in The Clock Is Ticking Away Under Latvia.

Interestingly enough in Iran the demographic situation is completely reversed. There a obscenely large percentage of the population is young (median again 26.4 years). This makes for a volatile mix all the same. The youth is unemployed and angry. Iran: It's the Economy Stupid.

Related Blogs: (Economics AND Demographics)
The Japan Economy Watch
French Economy Watch
German Economy Watch
Greece Economy Watch
Italy Economy Watch
Spain Economy Watch
Baltic Economy Watch


fajensen said...

The funny thing is that, some years ago, when the immigration office did a survey of attitudes and values shared by immigrants and ethnic danes, Iranian's and Marokkan's shared the most values with us while the palestinians and the turks are the furthest apart.

The survey was predictably pulled from the internet: "we" are supposed to like Turkey enough to allow them into the EU (Never!) and "sympathise with the plight of the palestinian people" so reality was just not done.

The amount of value sharing is however reflected in the crime statistics.

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