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Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Mr. Danger, Chavez and Buffett

“If you freeze us, if you really manage to freeze us, if you damage us, then we will hurt you. Do you know how? We are not going to send oil to the United States, Mr. Bush, Mr. Danger… Venezeula will join in your economic war and other countries will be with us in the economic war… Never again will they rob us – the Exxon Mobil bandits. They are imperial American bandits, white collar thieves.” –Hugo Chavez

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is famed for his incendiary oratory and low IQ. But in his recent threats to cut off oil shipments to the U.S., a move he says could propel world prices to $200 a barrel, he's blowing smoke, not fire.

The U.S is the single largest destination for Venezuela's oil exports. More importantly, the U.S. is home to refineries specially equipped to handle Venezuela's brand of heavy, high-sulfur crude. Finding other customers for the country's oil in a hurry simply isn’t possible.

Any embargo would hurt Venezuela far more than the U.S. Venezuela supplies about 11% of U.S. oil, but the U.S. accounts for the bulk of Venezuelan oil exports.

I’m scaling into a short here. One unit short on the spike, with two more planned around $95 and $97. Should prices fail to reach these targets, short two units on a break below $92. Stop around $101 with profit targets around $85, $82 and $78.

Buffet has offered to re-insure municple bonds held by MBIA, Ambac and FGIC. Futures love it this morning. This news is just in the nick of time and will allow equities to follow through on their bounce.


Oso said...

you defintely know your stocks, but your Chavez "Low IQ" comment is pretty fucking ignorant. Chavez essentially revived OPEC and has used the oil $ as well as barter with poorer nations to provide free education and medical care to the poor. Hardly the actions of a stupid individual.The remarks you refer to involve a project with Exxon which Ven. has nationalized and offered full repayment to Exxon. 500 million, exxon is demanding 750 million. it is a war of words, the type of thing which happens all the time in politics. Again, I don't question your stock knowledge but politically you need to do a bit of reading.

Ben Bittrolff said...

Chavez is NOT helping the poor. Its all an illusion. He will leave them all worse off. Trust me. I've seen it all before... and first hand. (I lived in Argentina for four years.)

Inflation will take it all away and then some. Nationalization will end in reduced production and productivity. It always has and always will.

Patience. You will see.
In the meantime, lets not argue about it.

Anonymous said...

you cant be serious? So, cause chavez wants to help the 'poor', he is not stupid? He doesn't give a rats ass about the poor. Its about 'him' and only him, time to read up on your history. Dictators are always the same. retoric about helping the poor, while raping millions for themselves, and after they are killed or get exiled, the country is always worse off. go back to berkley.

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