Dennis Gartman and the Yen

Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter is somebody this Ninja greatly respects. Dennis is more often ‘spot on’ than not, as he has a finely tuned ear to financial market developments and many years of experience to rely on. When Dennis speaks or writes, we listen… and take note: As do a large number of traders and speculators.

So when Dennis voices his concern over the Yen, it is wise to take serious notice and position accordingly.

“Since '01, the trend has been inordinately clear as it moves "from the lower left to the upper right" as the Yen has weakened almost relentlessly against the EUR. From a low near 90 to its high near 170, the cross has trended steadily higher, consistent with the thesis that it was wise to borrow in Yen and to invest those funds elsewhere... anywhere... with increasing abandon. The proverbial "Mr. and Mrs. Watanabe" have done exactly that; they've sent the Yen denominated savings abroad in search of returns not available in Japan. Hence Japanese stocks have seriously under-performed stocks anywhere else in the world; the yen has weakened relative to all of the major currencies of the world, and the cross has served as a very, very good thermometer of the world's "fever" for risk.

We are now clearly at an important juncture for the cross and therefore, in our opinion, for the global economy.

The questions before the global economy may simply boil down to this one question: Will long term support between 150-155 hold? As we write, the cross is trading 155.50. Our concern is that 150 won't hold, and if that proves true, then the weakness in the global stock markets may be shockingly severe... so much so that we'd prefer not even considering that notion at the moment.

Of closer concern is whether 155 shall hold? We fear it shall not, at the same time hoping that 150 shall. If 155 is "given" and if that "given" holds for a day or so, 150 will be put to test. Further, if 155 is given, 12,000 on the Dow will be "given" also. Attention then must be paid.” –Dennis Gartman, 02/08/08

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