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Wednesday, April 2, 2008

World Recession and the Perfect Short Squeeze


Yesterday’s MASSIVE rally will reveal itself to have been nothing but a cruel April Fools joke. I say it here and now. Let me explain:

It was the first day of the new quarter and therefore, NEW money was deployed. While this wasn’t the primary driver, keep this in mind.

Both UBS (UBS) and Lehman (LEH) announced new capital infusions. Now this is where it gets interesting. In both cases the capital is being raised in a very specific way.

But first some background: When large speculators, such as hedge funds, find an ailing company that has the very real possibility of becoming financially impaired they naturally start to short the COMMON shares. As the COMMON shares get HAMMERED DOWN and time passes, more and more information about the company’s financial situation gradually becomes public knowledge. This means that even the companies bonds start to loss value. Those same large specs might even start BUYING them for CENTS on the DOLLAR.

Now what? The large spec has a big fat UNREALIZED profit. Buying the shares back would be counter productive as the shares would LIFT on the sudden demand and reduction of supply. Since the company is really in financial distress, the large spec now approaches the company and financial intermediaries and expresses their interest in ‘supporting’ the company. The bankers get giddy with excitement and arrange for a secondary offering of COMMON shares which the large spec subscribes too. The large spec buys the shares, thereby covering their shorts. The firm gets fresh capital and increases its odds of survival. Existing shareholders get DILUTED. The large spec also makes money on the bonds as the risk of default suddenly drops.

See. SHORT SELLERS aren’t actually pure EVIL. They serve a legitimate purpose. This actually works and works well because existing longs may not be interested in adding to their long exposure and FRESH, NEW longs may be hard to come by.

In the case of UBS and Lehman, the money was raised from those NOT SHORT common. There went the ‘OUT’ for the shorts and BANG, there is your short squeeze.

Lehman reps actually came out and explained it on CNBC yesterday. Cramer did the same for UBS. He even giggled about it.

To make things worse, the financial community appears to have gotten together and made both UBS and Lehman ‘hard to borrow’. Suddenly those who were short were told they MUST cover.

If you’re long, you can decide if you want your shares to be available to be borrowed or not. Some well placed phone calls to some hedgies and friends that were long common, and suddenly the shares available to be borrowed DISAPPEARED.

There you go. Toss in some FRESH money on the first of the quarter and you’ve got your low volume super-spike. This is how you engineer the perfect short squeeze.

IMF Cuts Global Forecast on Worst Crisis Since 1930s (Update2): “The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth this year and said there's a 25 percent chance of a world recession, citing the worst financial crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression.

The world economy will expand 3.7 percent in 2008, the slowest pace since 2002. In January the fund projected growth of 4.1 percent.”

The IMF is SLOW and LATE. They cut growth LAST and LEAST. For them to say there is a 25% change of a WORLD RECESSION, is something to take VERY seriously. This is a very careful and conservative organization.

“The reduction is the third by the Washington-based lender since last July, when it predicted the world economy would cope with the U.S. credit squeeze and grow 5.2 percent this year.

The IMF gave a 25 percent chance that global growth will drop to 3 percent or less in 2008 and 2009, a pace the fund described as equivalent to a world recession. The last time that happened was in 2001.”

I would put the odds of a WORLD RECESSION at greater than 50%. EASILY. You can’t have a GLOBAL CREDIT BUBBLE ,a GLOBAL ECONOMY and GLOBAL PROSPERITY without the flip side: GLOBAL RECESSION.

“The fund lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 0.5 percent this year, according to the document, below a 1.5 percent prediction made in January. The world's biggest economy will expand 0.6 percent in 2009, it said.

The euro region will expand 1.3 percent in 2008, the document said, down from the fund's 1.6 percent projection in January.”

It’s amazing how easily people forget this. Sure, everybody is happy pumping money into EMERGING ECONOMIES and COMMODITIES on the GLOBAL GROWTH story. But they conveniently ignore the implications of slowing growth in the U.S., the EU and Japan. When the single largest economic bloc of CONSUMERS simultaneously slows, all the export economies around the globe have to stall out.

“Japan's economy, the world's second largest, will grow 1.4 percent in 2008, less than the 1.5 percent the IMF predicted in January, according to the statement. China will grow 9.3 percent this year, slower than the 10 percent projection made in January, the statement said.

The Asian Development Bank today lowered its forecasts for Asia, and said central banks in the region would pursue policies to quell inflation rather than spur economic growth. The World Bank earlier this week also warned of the threat of rising energy and food prices.

Asia excluding Japan is predicted to expand 7.6 percent this year, less than a September estimate of 8.2 percent, the Manila- based ADB said in a report today.”

ADB Cuts Asia's Growth Forecasts, Warns of Inflation (Update1): “The Asian Development Bank lowered its economic growth forecasts for the region as a global slowdown weighs on exports and expansions in China and India cool.

Asia excluding Japan is predicted to expand 7.6 percent this year, less than a September estimate of 8.2 percent, the Manila-based institution said in a report today. The economies grew 8.7 percent in 2007, the fastest clip in almost two decades.”

The global ‘decoupling’ argument is a dead. I’ve argued this before:

The Global ‘Decoupling Theory’ is Garbage
Global Decoupling Theory, Correlation Contagion

Consumers that make $3k to $9k a year and have a HIGH savings rate, are not going to behave the same as consumers that make $21k to $37k a year and spend as if they make $50k - $100k a year. You can’t just SWAP one out for the other and say, “Ta da! Carry on! This party is just getting started!”

“Although developing Asia is now exporting more to other emerging economies, this is unlikely to compensate fully for losses in the much larger, more established markets. Market penetration of Asian suppliers in China's final goods markets is limited, and strong growth in China will provide only a limited cushion against the downturn.”

Related Headlines:
UBS, Lehman Raisings May Signal Rout Is Nearing End (Update4)

55 comments:

Greg0658 said...

Consumers that make $3k to $9k a year and have a HIGH savings rate

uh - you mean save $3to9K a year - or are you talking a kid living with dad

cause I don't see how anyone can be a wage earner of $3to9K a year and save a darn penny

Brant said...

I think Ben is talking about the average worker in Asia makes $3-9K/year who I think has a much lower real and perceived standard of living than we do here ($21-37K and acting like its 3-4 times more than that. The Asians are much better savers than we are and they only spend what they actually have, unlike us who spend all we have and pretend money too.

It will be very hard for the folks here who have 2 new SUVs, 5,000+ sf house, 2-3 big vacations/per year, 200 channels on the TV, memberships to the club, manicure/pedicure/hair done every week, shop at SAKS, dinner every night.....to gear down drastically.

Folks like my wife and I who have 2 10+ year old cars, rabbit ears on the TV (just bought the analog to digital converter box with coupon, works great by the way), shop at Goodwill/Thrift stores, very satisfied with the rocking chairs on our south facing front porch on our ~1,500 sf 3/2 house don't care too much for all the bells and whistles and can handle both real and psychologically a soft patch.

Brant, Atlanta, GA

UncleOxidant said...

Brant:
Similar situation here only our cars are 21 years old (bought it new back then) and 14 years old. We also mostly only shop at thrift stores, prepare our food at home (rarely eat out) and even cut our own hair. And like you we have no cable (I've yet to buy the converter box, but I did get the coupon cards last week).

The only problem at this point is trying to figure out how to cut our spending from here - I think we're already living pretty lean.

The dual SUV folks with the big house and vacations paid for by HELOC will be forced to learn how to save and they've got plenty of room to cut wasteful spending.

Ben Bittrolff said...

greg0658, brant,

Thats exactly what I'm talking about. The median income over there is far far lower than you think. Apple isn't going to sell many iPhones in the heartlands of China anytime soon. So if Americans can't buy em, and Europeans won't, then these consumer goods can't just be dropped off in these emerging economies.

Anonymous said...

So, with all the doom-and-gloom, where do we invest/put our money.

Are the basics (i.e. food [not restaurants, but commodities, etc.], energy, healthcare the place to be?

Anonymous said...

I've been thinking the same thing, but one thing that isn't explained:

The shares issues were supposed to be preferred, right? So where does the spec get the commons from?

Brant said...

uncleoxidant, you and I (and all others with similar attitudes/direction) should feel proud of what we do and handle things. Where to go from here? As you said, you're already living pretty lean. I don't know where you are and the costs of living.
You and I, we're doing all right. My wife and I are putting about $1,500 extra each month toward the house and hope to have it paid for by about mid 2010. Lots of entertainment around, its interesting seeing larger and larger houses in nicer and nicer neighborhoods with foreclosure/short sale signs in front.

I will admit that my wife and I have no kids yet. She's 33 and I'm 41 (yep we're kinda late, esp me). We're working to pay off the house and then have the kids. We were just married last year. Hopefully, she's still got time, but if we try and can't, that was the decision we made and we'll live with whatever happens. But even when we do, any kids will have us as parents and they'll know the value of money and get their clothes from thrift stores too. My wife's sister is cutting our hair this weekend (boy am I shaggy).

We do go out to eat, but its Five Guys Burgers and Fries (its in Atl and they've got great music), not the high priced "fagos" (you know its high priced with no caps). We also go to this great little hole in the wall nearby with more great music and we can both eat for ~$12.

Anonymous, where to put money now? I know I know gold is great, but I also realize FDR outlawed gold ownership in the depression, thus cash became the "approved" method of trade. Who's to say it won't happen again? As I mentioned before, most of my 401K sold late last year is in money market (I think mostly in treasuries). I figure the best place to be for us without many options might be right in the mouth of the beast. I would guess given the choice between gold or cash, those DC powers will "approve" cash over gold again. I would think in the worst case scenario, the gov't would support cash to the bitter end until barter takes over.

Brant, Atlanta, GA

Ben Bittrolff said...

Anonymous,

"The shares issues were supposed to be preferred, right? So where does the spec get the commons from?"

Exactly. The specs have to go buy 'em on the open market instead of at the offering. (The conversion premiums are so high that the shorts wouldn't want the preferreds. You see the preferreds convernt to COMMON at something like +32% for LEH.)

BAM! You've got +20% on LEH and UBS for the day.

Thai said...

Anon, if I understand Ben correctly, you don't invest in anything. That is the whole point.

You own cash

Anonymous said...

Thanks.

I understand at times like these that "cash" is where you want to be, but aren't there some places where you can put some $$$ and ride the cycle.

Gold has gone parabolic...so I"m thinking that ride is pretty much over.

But what about the likes of oil and food? They will always be in demand..espcially the latter.

Thoughts?

Chowda Head said...

Where to put your cash? I think about that question every single day. So far, I only have 1 sure-bet answer: Renminbi.
Open an FDIC insured account with EverBank (min 10K), pay 75bps to convert, and 75bps to convert back at some point in the future. Then, in the interim, watch your cash grow 1% per month, basically risk free - which looks like this: http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CNY/graph120.html

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