Ok, it’s time for that monthly installment of REALLY SCARY FED CHARTS.All data is sourced DIRECTLY from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Things have NOT improved. Start at the top, click on the charts and work your way down. This time around I’ve gone with more pictures and less words. There really isn’t much to say except for, “Oh SHIT.”
To all INFLATIONISTS: I’ve almost ALL these charts are for you. Each MASSIVE write down is the DESTRUCTION of credit and money. Since these write downs go straight to the bottom line, this results in the MASSIVE de-leveraging of these HIGHLY leveraged corporations. Because they ALL have to de-leverage at the same time, risky assets (from simple equities, to real estate) all find themselves CONTINUOUSLY OFFERED, with NO SUSTAINED BID. This is DEFLATIONARY.
Also, for the last time: The Fed is NOT printing money. Nor will it. The current liquidity injections are NOT inflationary, as they are TEMPORARY and nothing more than SWAPS of one illiquid (toxic mortgage derivatives) asset for one liquid (U.S. government debt) asset.
To all BOTTOM CALLERS: The last chart is for you. We may be DEEP into the RESIDENTIAL real estate mess, but we’re only JUST GETTING STARTED in the COMMERCIAL real estate mess. Banks hold far more CRE (Commercial Real Estate) loans than they ever did Residential Real Estate.
Still want to buy financials for the LONG TERM? (Buying the short covering bounces is different.)
Calculated Risk on CRE:
Recession: CRE and PCE
FDIC Stresses Importance of CRE Concentrations
WSJ on CRE Slowdown
Fed’s Kohn on CRE
Goldman: CRE Prices May Fall 25%
Really Scary Fed Chart Posts:
Really Scary Fed Charts: MARCH
Fed CHANGES Really Scary Fed Charts
Really Scary Fed Charts, Why Bernanke Will Furiously Cut
Calculated Risk on CRE:
Recession: CRE and PCE
FDIC Stresses Importance of CRE Concentrations
WSJ on CRE Slowdown
Fed’s Kohn on CRE
Goldman: CRE Prices May Fall 25%
Really Scary Fed Chart Posts:
Really Scary Fed Charts: MARCH
Fed CHANGES Really Scary Fed Charts
Really Scary Fed Charts, Why Bernanke Will Furiously Cut
Posts
27 comments:
Ninja,
I foresee inflation in the cost of necessities - food, medical, insurance, etc. combined with deflation in stocks. Non-treasury bonds are a tougher call.
In any event, I see no easy out here. If we inflate, the average joe goes broke. If we allow deflation, ficticious wealth vaporizes. Comfy retirements go down the drain for many boomers.
I'm guessing Bernanke would choose the middle ground, but I see congress taking additional fiscal action. A likely result is gnawing CPI inflation & asset deflation. Bell bottom blues.
The problem is the best solution for average people is to let the housing bubble pop quickly, let those underwater walk away or declare bankruptcy and allow them to start rebuilding their lives and let housing STOP being an investment.
The problem is, everything is being done to prevent that because Ben & Hank's buddies get wiped out.
Who do you really think Ben & Hank are looking out for? You? me? Jamie Dimon?
It's sad we're all letting it happen without much of a peep.
What Fish said.. sigh....
God I wish they'd let this market just correct already. It's excruciating.
They are killing the average American with this posturing. Any doubts about who the politicians are serving is gone gone gone.
Ben,
I generally agree with the prior poster. Except I'll spin it with a twist.
The nominal cost of consumable essentials are rising, it is especially apparent in food and fuel. There is no denying this. But it is a symptom of the truth, that the purchasing power of the federal reserve notes are going down.
M1 has not been rising for the last couple years, absolutely true. However M2 has been, and is rising more sharply since 2008 began.
http://tinyurl.com/29djum
The economy is not driven by narrowly defined money that is for a small subset of transactions (M0/M1). Rather expansion of credit drives the economy. Credit is new borrowings, net debt added.
When more credit is extended than is necessary for productive investment, it spills over from the real economy into the financial sphere. There in, it bids up asset prices, enabling greater leverage (borrowing against securities valuations) to be applied, further elevating prices of asset classes. When the asset prices peak, be they homes or commercial real estate via excess supply, or stocks, pseudo-fixed income products as risk tolerance maximizes and risk is repriced, the beginning of the deleveraging vicious cycle ensues. This destruction of malinvested credit exhibits itself as decreasing asset prices.
Bad credit was extended. This bad credit flowed into malinvestments, over-rated RMBS based on overvalued real estate, et al, CDOs of RMBS, CLOs and CMOs and CDOs of the above Os, CMBS, etc. It also permitted leveraging up of malinvestments and distorts the values of of other securities. Credit had reach a peak bubble size.
Because the credit bubble is bursting, does not mean there will be deflation in all asset classes equally. Food will not get cheaper, until there is an increase in supply. Fuel prices are unlikely to decline significantly as it is a global fungible commodity and aggregate supply compared to demand is similarly constrained. If these commodities are not consumed by the USA due to conservation and/or reduced demand due to recession (or depression), the rest of the world will gladly consume more.
There are also currency effects as many commodities are priced in US$. The purchasing power of the US$ is declining relative to other fiat currencies and true stores of value.
So what you have are fiat asset price decreases as bad credit is destroyed and commodity price increases due to purchasing power losses.
tdave:
A very good summary. Thanks.
One question however: How do the decreased asset values get reflected in the real economy?
I think if you can purchase less and have less purchasing power, and see declining asset values, a person would normally reduce consumption (forced or elective). But how is this captured on a macro level?
I will also say that the first chart scares the begeezers out of me!
Nice stuff Ninja!
I see where Ninja is coming from on the Fed charts re: deflation, but I am no longer sure this is the most important factor.
Sure, we have a financial sector and real estate sector that will continue to implode with falling asset prices, but this does not guarantee low interest rates / low inflation.
As we are seeing in the commodity price increases the dollar may be a more important factor. In turn, the path of the dollar is going to be highly dependent on the willingness of foreign creditors / investors to continue financing our current account deficit via capital inflows.
The average maturity of the national debt is approximately 3 years, meaning foreign holders of US treasury securities have taken on very little inflation risk which their investments. As a result if they fail to rollover their US dollar based debt for another 1 - 2 year term when it expires it becomes increasingly likely that US treasury interest rates go higher and dollar plunge continues. This process may be gradual / it may also result in a hard landing.
This is why I expect hyperinflation in USA over the next five years instead of a terrible deflation as happened in Japan in 1990s and in USA during the depression.
This does not mean the financials aren't great shorts here! I am also trying to participate in this complete collapse.
I just wanted to offer my two cents re: inflation / deflation debate as it is very hard to analyze within the vacuum of monetary statistics as other commenters have aptly noted.
So Ninja, where do we hide TIPS, commodities, DBA, PM?
Don't worry you mere commoners!!! All is well. America's elite class will not suffer in the slightest.
The truly wealthy could lose 90 percent or more of their assets and still continue their lofty life styles.
Only you peons, you underlings, you willing servents of your economic masters, will suffer in any way.
Just obay. It is your patriotic duty.
Be aware, though, that a typical method used by the elite class is to create or focus upon an external enemy to take the masses' minds off internal problems.
It is conceivable that the elite's figurehead, their lackey the idiotic bumbling brain-addled GW Bush followed advice whispered to him by his betters who knew the current economic problems would likely arise and commenced the Iraq war to pave the way for war with Iran.
If economic conditions worsen expect the federal government, owned and operated by an elite class, BIG corporations and wealthy/powerful dpecial-interest groups to commence military activities against Iran or possibly another country to take your mind off America's internal problems.
Whatever happens, just be patriotic and obey your masters.
And, smile as your wealth approaches zero knowing that the truly important folks within the USA are doing well, your elite class masters.
免費視訊聊天,辣妹視訊,視訊交友網,美女視訊,視訊交友,視訊交友90739,成人聊天室,視訊聊天室,視訊聊天,視訊聊天室,情色視訊,情人視訊網,視訊美女
一葉情貼圖片區,免費視訊聊天室,免費視訊,ut聊天室,聊天室,豆豆聊天室,尋夢園聊天室,聊天室尋夢園,影音視訊聊天室,
辣妹視訊,美女視訊,視訊交友網,視訊聊天室,視訊交友,視訊美女,免費視訊,免費視訊聊天,視訊交友90739,免費視訊聊天室,成人聊天室,視訊聊天,視訊交友aooyy
哈啦聊天室,辣妺視訊,A片,色情A片,視訊,080視訊聊天室,視訊美女34c,視訊情人高雄網,視訊交友高雄網,0204貼圖區,sex520免費影片,情色貼圖,視訊ukiss,視訊ggoo,視訊美女ggoo
080苗栗人聊天室,080中部人聊天室ut,ut影音視訊聊天室13077,視訊做愛,kk777視訊俱樂部,上班族聊天室,聊天室找一夜,情色交友,情色貼片,小瓢蟲情色論壇,aio交友愛情館
This article is very good,I like it !
The fall is approaching.We should take exercise to keep fit.
Let's do sports together.
Firstly,We should choose some comfort shoes.
puma ferrari shoes
cheap nike shoes
nike shox nz
Ugg Boots
cheap puma shoes
puma drift cat
cheap nike shox
nike air max 360
nike air max
pumas shoes
puma shoes
ferrari shoes
nike 360 air max
nike shox shoes
What's more some beautiful
cheap jeans
cheap levis jeans
ed hardy jeans
Thank you so much, I haven't ever read so wonderfull blog, your bolg is so good, I like it very much. I also want you to go to my web, and so that we can discuss something.
By the way, do you like polo shirts, which are very chic, especially the polo t shirts, I love them very much. I also like playing tennis rackets, it can keep healthy, what do you like to do?
polo t shirts women
polo t shirts on sale
polo t shirts for women
polo shirts on sale
polo shirts men
men's polo shirt
men polo shirt
mens polo shirts
mens polo shirt
cheap polo shirts
discount polo shirts
men's polo shirts
women's polo shirts
cheap tennis racket
discount tennis racket
prince tennis racquet
head tennis rackets
wilson tennis racket
babolat tennis racquet
ED Hardy , ED Hardy Clothes, ED Hardy Outlet, ED Hardy Hats, ED Hardy Caps , ED Hardy Sunglasses, ED Hardy Hoodies, ED Hardy Shirts ,
ED Hardy Bikini,
ED Hardy Jeans , ED Hardy Shoes
Prada, Pradas, Prada Outlet, prada handbags, prada handbag , prada bags, prada bag, prada sunglasses, prada sunglass, prada shoes, prada sneakers, prada purses, prada wallets, Prada Wallet, prada wallpaper
Those are best online website , best service , best quality. Good luck to you.
ed hardy clothing
Chaussures Sport
Tennis Racquet Shop
Cheap Polo Shirts
The North Face Jackets
cheap ed hardy
Chaussures Sport
Tennis Racquet
nike shox r4
ed hardy
cheap ed hardy
polo shirts
cheap polo
Remise Chaussures Sport
nike tn requin
ed hardy clothes
nike femmes chaussures
Ed hardy streak of clothing is expanded into its wholesale ED Hardy chain so that a large number of fans and users can enjoy the cheap ED Hardy Clothes range easily with the help of numerous secured websites, actually, our discount ED Hardy Outlet. As we all know, in fact Wholesale Ed Hardy,is based on the creations of the world renowned tattoo artist Don Ed Hardy. Why Ed hardy wholesale? Well, this question is bound to strike the minds of all individuals. Many people may say cheap Prada shoes is a joke, but we can give you discount Prada Sunglasses , because we have authentic Pradas bags Outlet. Almost everyone will agree that newest Pradas Purses are some of the most beautiful designer handbags ( Pradas handbags 2010) marketed today. Now we have one new product: Prada totes. The reason is simple: fashion prohibited by ugg boots, in other words, we can say it as Cheap ugg boots or Discount ugg boots. We have two kinds of fashionable boots: classic ugg boots and ugg classic tall boots. Ankh Royalty--the Cultural Revolution. Straightens out the collar, the epaulette epaulet, the Ankh Royalty Clothing two-row buckle. Would you like to wear Ankh Royalty Clothes?Now welcome to our AnkhRoyalty Outlet. And these are different products that bear the most famous names in the world of fashion, like Ankh Royalty T-Shirt, by the way-Prada, Spyder, Moncler(Moncler jackets，or you can say Moncler coats, Moncler T-shirt, Moncler vest，and you can buy them from our discount Moncler outlet), GHD, ED Hardy, designer Sunglasses, Ankh Royalty, Twisted Heart.
ugg boots
polo boots
polo shoes
herve leger
herve leger handage dress
chanel outlet
chanel handbags
chanel bags
chanel iman
ralph Lauren polo
ralph lauren outlet
lacoste polo
polo raplh lauren
air jordan 2010
cheap jordan shoes
jordan ajf shoes
discount jordan shoes
jumpman23
moncler
moncler jackets
moncler coats
moncler vest
moncler outlet
moncler Polo t shirt
cheap five finger shoes
kiss ghd
Young and creative style
abercrombie and fitch
You can have a look at it.
abercrombie & fitch
if you really want it
jordan 8
jordan 9
jordan 10
ACER BTP-43D1 battery
Acer lc.btp05.001 battery
Acer aspire 3000 battery
Acer Travelmate 4000 battery
ACER aspire 5560 battery
ACER BATBL50L6 battery
ACER TravelMate 240 Battery
ACER BT.00803.004 Battery
ACER Travelmate 4002lmi battery
Acer travelmate 800 battery
Acer aspire 3613wlmi battery
Travelmate 2414wlmi battery
Acer batcl50l battery
Acer Travelmate 2300 battery
ACER aspire 3610 battery
ACER travelmate 4600 battery
Dell Latitude D800 battery
Dell Inspiron 600m battery
Dell Inspiron 8100 Battery
Dell Y9943 battery
Dell Inspiron 1521 battery
Dell Inspiron 510m battery
Dell Latitude D500 battery
Dell Latitude D520 battery
Dell GD761 battery
Dell NF343 battery
Dell Latitude D630 battery
Dell xps m1210 battery
Dell e1705 battery
Dell d830 battery
Dell inspiron 2200 battery
Dell inspiron 640m battery
Dell inspiron b120 battery
Dell xps m1210 battery
Dell inspiron xps m1710 battery
Dell inspiron 1100 battery
Dell 310-6321 battery
Dell 1691p battery
Dell Inspiron 500m battery
Dell 6Y270 battery
Dell inspiron 8600 battery
Latitude x300 series battery
Dell latitude cpi battery
Dell 1x793 battery
dell Inspiron 1501 battery
Dell 75UYF Battery
Dell Inspiron 1720 battery
dell Latitude C640 battery
Dell XPS M140 battery
Dell Inspiron E1405 battery
dell 700m battery
dell C1295 battery
Dell U4873 Battery
Die Zeitmessung hat ein Ziel des Menschen von thomas sabo online Anfang an und eine Zeitleiste wurde Ihnen beim Verständnis helfen, wie wir wo sind wir mit Uhren bekam. Uhren haben so viele neue thomas sabo schmuck günstig Funktionen. Sie haben das Datum, die Zeit, mal über Zeitzonen hinweg, und angebote thomas sabo einige haben Stoppuhren. Die meisten Uhren haben eine Art von Alarm in ihnen. Die Möglichkeiten sind unbegrenzt und anhänger kette ich kann wirklich einen Dick Tracy Art zu sehen sein echt.Hier eine Chronologie der Geschichte zu sehen. Einige kette thomas sabo der Jahre möglicherweise nicht in chronologischer Reihenfolge aufgeführt werden, aber ich habe sie so nah wie thomas sabo kette möglich. Es ist sehr interessant zu erfahren, wie Uhren entwickelt haben. Es ist erstaunlich, wenn ich an den Köpfen der Menschen, die ihre Hand bei der Schaffung von Uhren, wie klug und schmuck thomas sabo ketten technische sie gewesen sein musste denken!Vor Das Hauptproblem war die thomas sabo ohrschmuck treibende Kraft der Uhren liefen wurden Gewichtungen. Dies machte es angebote thomas sabo ohrschmuck schwierig, sie herumtragen. Henlien war fünfzehn Gulden für eine vergoldete Moschus-Apfel thomas sabo ohrringe mit einer Uhr gezahlt.
Air Jordan Fusion 12, Air Jordan Fusion 12
air jordan XI, air jordan XI
Moins Cher Nike Shox, Moins Cher Nike Shox
Nike Air Zoom, Nike Air Zoom
chemise fashion, chemise fashion
Jordan 11.5, Jordan 11.5
Moncler men and Moncler women clothing-Moncler online here,The Moncler jackets simple line of the Moncler outlet that you adopt——buy a Moncler that it has gained.
Nowadays, internet is a faster and safer way to select what you want in your whole life. There are a lot of things for you to choose. Pandora Bracelets Canada is a kind of online accessory store; Pandora Canada contains a lot of Pandora Jewellery such as Pandora Charms, Pandora Beads, Pandora Bracelets, and the several of Pandora Jewelry. You can select according to your love.
Very well, that is my very first stop by for your website! It is nice,just like our website.
GHD Uk
If you are a fashion man,maybe you will also like our website,like our ghd uk.All of the ghd uk here are fashion,useful,noble and free shipping.ghd australia here for your choice as a nice gift set.best flat ironwelcomes you. chi for sale I am very glad to see your article. This article sends us a lot of information that we need. Hairstyle as an important part of trend, more and more people like to design their hairstyle by themselves, so have a hair straightener is necessary. ghd ukYou may also like ghd australiaShape maintenance: for this hairstyle, the use of excessive damage to the hair salon products but will gloss. In fact only need a good hair dryer and hair straighteners will be able to successfully produce the perfect effect, as known to the conservation of negative ions Philips SalonDry Control and Philips SalonStraight Active Ion XL is easy and versatile hair tools. Similarly, Philips SalonStraight Active Ion XL high-quality ceramic coating as a hair straightener that allows you to easily Fushun hair while protecting hair from damage.Ghd Australia
I like football, prefer the beautiful and stylish football shoes to introduce aNike soccer cleats.
Prefer Nike mercurial vapor superfly
Your Escort Agency offers exclusive and most beautiful London escort girls of various nationalities.
Mens Moncler sale Vests is the renowned high-end outerwear brand which Moncler Online created a quilted moncler vests trend in the fashion world. Never one to Moncler Outlet Store stand still in time, Moncler has always kept abreast of the latest technologies and stayed true to its origins without compromising its runway worthy style. If it has a Moncler Online Shop, it will keep you warm on top of the highest mountain and be trendy on any city street. More mens Uggs clearance at Uggs nederland for your best choice! ugg australia boots is the most professional down coat in the world.Using the selected materials and sophisticated technology, Ugg outlet store Down Coats have good heat preservation and excellent anti-wind features.All of the mens down coat sale at our moncler outlet store are famous for their high quality and fashion styles.When you were in, you will feel comfortable and will be the fashional guy in the cold winter.Moncler Mens Jackets-many new styles jackets for customers.These jackets are in many colors very stylish and warm.Long coats or short down jackets for men are the perfect option for you.Moncler jacket is your best choice in cold winter.You can have a special feeling while you are wearing it.More the other moncler down jacket,moncler jackets australia at moncler outlet store.
Bestescort4U agency provids best London escorts companionship in the UK.
Post a Comment