Custom Search

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Time to be Short Commodities

In Commodities Seeing Demand Destruction, Canada Rolls Over I went over some short commodity ETFs.

Since then DUG broke OUT and UP from $26.50 to $31.00, or 17%.
Since then SMN broke OUT and UP from $27.50 to $34.00, or 24%.

Both still have room to run before hitting any significant resistance.

I didn’t get ‘full size off’ in KOL before it collapsed and will be adding on any bounces as mentioned in Coal Gets Smashed.

Other short commodity ETFs that I’m looking at or have positions in:

HED.TO (Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Energy Bear Plus ETF)
HOD.TO (Horizons BetaPro Crude Oil Bear Plus ETF)
HXD.TO (Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Bear Plus)

For a complete list of Horizons BetaPro ETFs click here.
I think it's time to be short commodities now as this is the last bastion of the cheap credit bubble Bulls...


Anonymous said...

Stay away from the oil black swan!

You may wanna also try taking a shot at SLX.

I'm biding my time with POT. There's a massive airpocket underneath that sucker and it's going to get smashed sometime this year I think.

Buck said...


What is your perspective on the market in the next 3-6 months. It seems from your posts that the markets will go lower and also the commodities. So is it a better option to stay in cash or going long DUG/SMN??? What about traditional safe havens like gold and silver. I am not a day trader and would like your opinion.


Anonymous said...


My knee-jerk reaction to your post was "Finally! Not a moment too soon." But then I got to thinking: The main reason why commodity prices went up in the first place is because speculative money had no other place to go. Does this mean other markets have become more predictable, and therefore more attractive again? And which commodities look most ripe for shorting? Rises in prices on staple foodstuffs like rice and wheat are considered to have been driven up mainly by the biofuel bubble (yes, I consider that a bubble too. Don't know if you agree.) Gold and silver is where money tend to go when everything else is unstable; with that in mind, I'm not sure they're all that expensive, under the circumstances. Finally, oil is obviously ridiculously overpriced at the moment, and it bizarre that it has gone as high as it has. I'd expect demand for oil to be highly price-sensitive, but with a lag before businesses begin to fold in earnest. Still... Why should it go down when it really shouldn't have gone up like this to begin with? Here's what in part is causing my paranoia:

(BTW, I'm not the same anonymous who told you to stay away from the oil black swan. I wouldn't presume to tell you what to do. :))

Mike said...

I fully agree with SMN (where I sold too early),
but with DUG you have the risk of the Iran thing blowing up... I will buy DUG then!

replica rolex said...

$75 Replica Rolex Watches sale, Our site provides Rolex replica, replica Rolex Watches, replica breitling, replica Cartier, replica Omega, Tag Heuer Watches. . .more than 100 famous rolex brands"
rolex air king
rolex datejust
rolex day date
rolex daytona
rolex gmt
rolex submariner
rolex yachtmaster
a lange sohne watches
alain silberstein watches
bell ross watches
breguet watches
breitling watches
bvlgari watches
cartier watches
omega watches
patek philippe watches

Sneakers hobbies said...

nice post!!
We do kinds of casual clothing wholesale online, welcome to visit!!
winter clothing
winter jackets
winter clothes
ski jackets
north face sale
discount north face jackets
north face coats
men's down jackets
cotton polo shirts
polo shirts
cheap polo shirts
ralph lauren polo shirts
discount polo shirts
polo shirts wholesale
columbia jackets
the north face jackets
columbia sportswear jackets

ryan said...

Examine the soles of your shoes. Note where UGG Mini wear has occurred. Most people seem to be amazed that their shoes wear at the rear outer corner. Most UGG Mini boots rearfoot strikers will wear at this part of the shoe. The reason for this, which someday, somewhere a funded study will prove, is that for most heel strikers it is the point Mini ugg boots of first contact of the shoe with the ground. Most people walk and run with their feet slightly rotated from center. Runners, however, also have what is called a narrow base Mini uggs of gait. A narrow base of gait means that the feet contact close to the midline of your body. This creates additional varus (tilting in) of the limb. This results, for the rearfoot striker, in the first point hitting the ground being the outer corner of your shoe. Forefoot wear ugg 5854 may point to an individual who is a sprinter, runs fast, contacts the ground with the forefoot first or all of the above. Uneven forefoot wear may show where one metatarsal is plantarflexed relative to the others or where one metatarsal may be longer than the others. In the presence of significant forefoot wear, you are at risk of stress fractures.

jiang said...

A good compropmse mght be pandora online something your chikldren want, wich cheap pandora will also be usefdul for them & you. Last year, scooter for one of the pandora charm boys was a big hit as he cuild whistle down the street at him, then fold it & put it in the bag when pandora charms australia he juumped on the bus or want to go inside the shopping center ... Not bad for investment in accordance with $ 100.00. It saved me from going to take him with his bicycle many timse troughout the year. This Christmas does not maztter