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Monday, September 29, 2008

Baltic Dry, Commodities, Bubbles

“The fear is that the rescue package is not enough to stop the economy falling into a full-blown recession. And as people fear that problems outside the U.S. might be even worse, we see the euro weaken and remove support for commodities.” -Eugen Weinberg, commodity analyst

“Even if the Troubled Asset Rescue Plan is passed, that doesn't necessarily mean there aren't any obstacles on the road to economic recovery. There are worries about the outlook for the international economy.” -David Moore, commodity strategist

I really hope those two super analysts didn’t just figure that out…

On September 12, 2008 in the post Baltic Dry Index: Smashed, Global Demand Falling I argued:

“The Baltic Dry Index was an integral part of the global Decoupling Theory. In December of 2007 I argued it was nothing but GARBAGE.

A falling Baltic Dry Index will also result in falling commodity prices. Those hoping for a resumption of the commodity Bull are going to get nothing more than a bounce or two. This party is over.”

Since then the Baltic Dry Index has imploded so rapidly that it has made it into the Financial Times…

Over at Naked Capitalism they cover the story well in Baltic Dry Index Tanks.

Oil, Metals, Crops Fall on Concern U.S. Bailout Plan May Fail: “Commodities fell, led by oil, copper and lead, on concern the U.S. plan to spend $700 billion propping up America's banks will fail to unlock credit markets and avert a slowdown in the world's largest economy.

Crude, gasoline, heating oil, copper, lead, corn, soybeans, silver and rice all dropped more than 2 percent, leading the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index to a 3.2 percent decline. While U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and leaders in Congress reached an agreement giving the government the authority to buy distressed bank assets, short-term interest rates failed to decline in Asia and Europe as banks restricted lending.”

I’m Still Short Commodities as the Hedgies Puke.

Follow this Trade:

1) Commodities Seeing Demand Destruction, Canada Rolls Over
2) Time to be Short Commodities
3) From Commodity Bubble to Commodity Bear
4) Gustav Fizzles and Commodities Fail

This is all you need to know: PARABILIC = END IS NEAR.

First: When The Momos Go Parabolic…
Second: When The Momos Lead The Way Down
Thirdly: Life After Things Go Parabolic, This Bounce Too Will End.
Most importantly: All Bubbles Are The Same

A while back I posted: Parabolic Commodities: The End is In Sight

Related Posts:
“Pop!” said the Commodity Bubble
The Final Bubble: Commodities
Oil Drops on Subsidy Cuts in China, India, Malaysia, Taiwan


Anonymous said...

Oil is NOT the final bubble!!

US Treasuries are the final bubble -- to be popped once and for all by this wonderful bailout.

-Mike J

peterthepainter said...

as falls niagara....

Anonymous said...

Gold, GLD, rose 3% today, while oil, USO, fell 11%, and commidities, RJI, fell 8%.

The facts are in and they establish that gold is the measure and means of preserving wealth in a world of falling currency, oil, commodity, and stock wealth.

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