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Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Policy Based on Failed Economic Theory: Just Stupid

I can't stress how important it is to understand that economists are relying on hugely flawed theories and models when looking at the economy. Economic policy is being made off the neo-classical theory of economics. This is just a fancy way of describing current mainstream economic theory. This neo-classical theory of economics forms the basis for all the crap your politicians and their advisors keep trying. The greatest failed experiment of this theory is the practical implementation Keynesian and Neo-Keynesian economic policy. Today, right now you are witnessing the implementation of Keynesian theory to its absolute maximum limits with a policy of ZIRP and quantitative easing.

Of course this cannot work and it never has. Neo-classical economic theory is fatally flawed from its very first basic premises. They are:

1) People have rational preferences among outcomes that can be identified and associated with a value.
2) Individuals maximize utility and firms maximize profits.
3) People act independently on the basis of full and relevant information.

This entire theory and all the economic policy that is born of it hinges on these three basic premises. The first one is completely ridiculous and obvious to anybody that isn’t a socially inept, ivory tower, academic, economic nerd. (Clearly these guys have never interacted with the female species in person before. Hahaha.) The assumption is that individuals choose the best action according to stable preference functions and constraints facing them. Simply put, if you prefer beer over liquor you’ll consistently drink beer at parties. No flip flopping allowed. No randomizations allowed. No ‘living in the moment’ allowed. This brings me to premise number two. Individuals maximize utility and firms maximize profits. Basically you drink your beer to the point of being pleasantly buzzed and then you stop. You never get smashed because a massive hangover clearly does not maximize utility. The third premise states that you will act independently and have all the relevant information to make the best choices. This means that you happily drink your beer and won’t get persuaded to do a round of shots with your friends. You clearly know that one round leads to two and you’ve got to work tomorrow. When your drunken friend gives you a stock tip you act independently and only after you’ve figured out everything humanly possible about the company and the industry. You aren’t at all persuaded by the fact that all your friends jumped on the stock and are making a killing. You stay completely level headed all the time.

The fact that we keep going thru economic and financial manias, bubbles and busts does not seem to deter the economic eggheads that continue to employ these theories literally like zealot Bible thumpers.

You’d figure that the Tulip Mania, South Sea Bubble, Dot Com Bubble, and the current Real Estate Bubble (to name a few) would be more than enough evidence to absolutely destroy all three of these premises.

The truly successful traders and investors of course know all this already. They thrive in a chaotic, irrational and uncertain environment.

This Economy Does Not Compute: “A FEW weeks ago, it seemed the financial crisis wouldn’t spin completely out of control. The government knew what it was doing — at least the economic experts were saying so — and the Treasury had taken a stand against saving failing firms, letting Lehman Brothers file for bankruptcy. But since then we’ve had the rescue of the insurance giant A.I.G., the arranged sale of failing banks and we’ll soon see, in one form or another, the biggest taxpayer bailout of Wall Street in history. It seems clear that no one really knows what is coming next. Why?

Well, part of the reason is that economists still try to understand markets by using ideas from traditional economics, especially so-called equilibrium theory. This theory views markets as reflecting a balance of forces, and says that market values change only in response to new information — the sudden revelation of problems about a company, for example, or a real change in the housing supply. Markets are otherwise supposed to have no real internal dynamics of their own. Too bad for the theory, things don’t seem to work that way.

Nearly two decades ago, a classic economic study found that of the 50 largest single-day price movements since World War II, most happened on days when there was no significant news, and that news in general seemed to account for only about a third of the overall variance in stock returns. A recent study by some physicists found much the same thing — financial news lacked any clear link with the larger movements of stock values.

Certainly, markets have internal dynamics. They’re self-propelling systems driven in large part by what investors believe other investors believe; participants trade on rumors and gossip, on fears and expectations, and traders speak for good reason of the market’s optimism or pessimism. It’s these internal dynamics that make it possible for billions to evaporate from portfolios in a few short months just because people suddenly begin remembering that housing values do not always go up.

Really understanding what’s going on means going beyond equilibrium thinking and getting some insight into the underlying ecology of beliefs and expectations, perceptions and misperceptions, that drive market swings.

Surprisingly, very few economists have actually tried to do this, although that’s now changing — if slowly — through the efforts of pioneers who are building computer models able to mimic market dynamics by simulating their workings from the bottom up.

The idea is to populate virtual markets with artificially intelligent agents who trade and interact and compete with one another much like real people. These “agent based” models do not simply proclaim the truth of market equilibrium, as the standard theory complacently does, but let market behavior emerge naturally from the actions of the interacting participants, which may include individuals, banks, hedge funds and other players, even regulators. What comes out may be a quiet equilibrium, or it may be something else.

For example, an agent model being developed by the Yale economist John Geanakoplos, along with two physicists, Doyne Farmer and Stephan Thurner, looks at how the level of credit in a market can influence its overall stability.

Obviously, credit can be a good thing as it aids all kinds of creative economic activity, from building houses to starting businesses. But too much easy credit can be dangerous.

In the model, market participants, especially hedge funds, do what they do in real life — seeking profits by aiming for ever higher leverage, borrowing money to amplify the potential gains from their investments. More leverage tends to tie market actors into tight chains of financial interdependence, and the simulations show how this effect can push the market toward instability by making it more likely that trouble in one place — the failure of one investor to cover a position — will spread more easily elsewhere.

That’s not really surprising, of course. But the model also shows something that is not at all obvious. The instability doesn’t grow in the market gradually, but arrives suddenly. Beyond a certain threshold the virtual market abruptly loses its stability in a “phase transition” akin to the way ice abruptly melts into liquid water. Beyond this point, collective financial meltdown becomes effectively certain. This is the kind of possibility that equilibrium thinking cannot even entertain.

It’s important to stress that this work remains speculative. Yet it is not meant to be realistic in full detail, only to illustrate in a simple setting the kinds of things that may indeed affect real markets. It suggests that the narrative stories we tell in the aftermath of every crisis, about how it started and spread, and about who’s to blame, may lead us to miss the deeper cause entirely.

Financial crises may emerge naturally from the very makeup of markets, as competition between investment enterprises sets up a race for higher leverage, driving markets toward a precipice that we cannot recognize even as we approach it. The model offers a potential explanation of why we have another crisis narrative every few years, with only the names and details changed. And why we’re not likely to avoid future crises with a little fiddling of the regulations, but only by exerting broader control over the leverage that we allow to develop.

Another example is a model explored by the German economist Frank Westerhoff. A contentious idea in economics is that levying very small taxes on transactions in foreign exchange markets, might help to reduce market volatility. (Such volatility has proved disastrous to countries dependent on foreign investment, as huge volumes of outside investment can flow out almost overnight.) A tax of 0.1 percent of the transaction volume, for example, would deter rapid-fire speculation, while preserving currency exchange linked more directly to productive economic purposes.

Economists have argued over this idea for decades, the debate usually driven by ideology. In contrast, Professor Westerhoff and colleagues have used agent models to build realistic markets on which they impose taxes of various kinds to see what happens.

So far they’ve found tentative evidence that a transaction tax may stabilize currency markets, but also that the outcome has a surprising sensitivity to seemingly small details of market mechanics — on precisely how, for example, the market matches buyers and sellers. The model is helping to bring some solid evidence to a debate of extreme importance.

A third example is a model developed by Charles Macal and colleagues at Argonne National Laboratory in Illinois and aimed at providing a realistic simulation of the interacting entities in that state’s electricity market, as well as the electrical power grid. They were hired by Illinois several years ago to use the model in helping the state plan electricity deregulation, and the model simulations were instrumental in exposing several loopholes in early market designs that companies could have exploited to manipulate prices.

Similar models of deregulated electricity markets are being developed by a handful of researchers around the world, who see them as the only way of reckoning intelligently with the design of extremely complex deregulated electricity markets, where faith in the reliability of equilibrium reasoning has already led to several disasters, in California, notoriously, and more recently in Texas.

Sadly, the academic economics profession remains reluctant to embrace this new computational approach (and stubbornly wedded to the traditional equilibrium picture). This seems decidedly peculiar given that every other branch of science from physics to molecular biology has embraced computational modeling as an invaluable tool for gaining insight into complex systems of many interacting parts, where the links between causes and effect can be tortuously convoluted.

Something of the attitude of economic traditionalists spilled out a number of years ago at a conference where economists and physicists met to discuss new approaches to economics. As one physicist who was there tells me, a prominent economist objected that the use of computational models amounted to “cheating” or “peeping behind the curtain,” and that respectable economics, by contrast, had to be pursued through the proof of infallible mathematical theorems.

If we’re really going to avoid crises, we’re going to need something more imaginative, starting with a more open-minded attitude to how science can help us understand how markets really work. Done properly, computer simulation represents a kind of “telescope for the mind,” multiplying human powers of analysis and insight just as a telescope does our powers of vision. With simulations, we can discover relationships that the unaided human mind, or even the human mind aided with the best mathematical analysis, would never grasp.

Better market models alone will not prevent crises, but they may give regulators better ways for assessing market dynamics, and more important, techniques for detecting early signs of trouble. Economic tradition, of all things, shouldn’t be allowed to inhibit economic progress.”

227 comments:

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Anonymous said...

two comments....

1. fooled by randomness
2. black swan

2 books that say it all.

Anonymous said...

Keynesianism has to be completely and totally whored out and fail in order for paradigm shift away from it to occur.

It will go to even higher extremes before it dies.

Only its utter and obvious (read incredibly painful) societal failure will bring Keynesianism to the trash heap as the solution to this peak credit insolvency problem.

Ben Bittrolff said...

Fuck Keynes. He is a destroyer of worlds.

Neo-classical economic theory is to economic theory as Newtonian Physics is to physics theory.

Way too simple. Physicists have moved on. Economists haven't. They've failed to evolve and we will pay the price.

Anonymous said...

In defense of mainstream economics- the predictive power is only as good as the model.

Add a variable for "Feel like trying something new" or "Sick of beer" and you don't wind up with a model that predicts you always drink X beers and that is your maximum utility.

Add in leisure enjoyment and avoiding headaches and all of a sudden not everyone is solely driven by greed to maximize profits.

Most of the models you refer to, to my knowledge, still operate under market equilibrium theory- but they're much more sophisticated models than a simple P-Q curve.

I don't think that economics is wrong, so much as it's not sophisticated enough to model unexpected consequences of things like an excessively large CDS market before they actually happen and people can study the outcomes.

And it's never sophisticated enough to make 100% confidence predictions. Even very sophisticated modeling isn't going to be the answer, because if someone can model it and make predictions on it, that information then goes into the market and can destabilize the prediction.

Anonymous said...

Jeez how scientific can "political economy" really get?
I mean economics is akin to political "science". Ideology can trump the "evidence", or even decide what counts as "evidence", and in all cases assigns weights to whatever is accepted as evidence.
Computational models help to illuminate complex systems, there is no doubt. But it doesn't help the politics, which is essentially what the economists are doing.
Or rather, the computational models lead to conclusions which the "trad" economists have (somehow) decided to be politically inexpedient (and therefore "wrong").
I trust that this is not the old simple "Keynes vs. Monetarist" argument, as both of those schools seem to adopt if not share similar assumptions.
In contrast, the computer models serve to test and modify the assumptions themselves. This is new, and exciting: these things were too complex to model without the computer power.
The history of the "science" of economics, I think, shows it to be more an "art(ifice)" than a "science". So far.
It's tough to modify long-held assumptions without feeling the fool, but that's science for you.
It may simply be the fact that the trad model of "science" (ie hypothesis-test-modification) was impossible to apply in the field of economic study until we actually achieved our current modicum of computational power. Similar to the solving of the four-color map problem and the achievement of other "brute-force" mathematical proofs.
It may be that the true science of economics is actually just now a-borning, and what passed for "science" in economics prior to this time was actually just "pre-science", ie like alchemy and a priori speculation, a necessary pre-cursor to the actual science..

wunsacon said...

Ben and folks, you're being unfair to Keynes and other economists over their models and model assumptions. They state their assumptions as such. And they don't claim precision.

All models suffer from oversimplification. Some models are useful.

Complaining about "reality differing from model predictions" is like an option ARM "homeowner" complaining that interest rates went up. The fine print was there. People just often ignore it.

...

And the present crisis stems from Alan Greenspan and like-minded folk who believed that industry would regulate itself. What happened was: Banking insiders accelerated recognition of revenue in order to pay themselves huge bonuses, without regard to the consequences to shareholders. What does that have to do with Keynes? The direct, proximate causes are:
- poor regulation
- lack of transparency
- absentee corporate ownership

Nick von Mises said...

You've obviously been given this alot of thought. Excellent post. I'd add:

Fourth premise: The economy is in a static equilibrium
Fifth premise: The subjects under study do not change their behaviour based on their anticipation of other people's behaviour
Sixth premise: No transaction costs
Seventh premise: Value is independent of the person doing the valuing

They don't understand that time, place and process affect the economy and therefore it's constantly moving. This is why the Austrians value the entrepreneur as the agent to move the economy and why money has to be followed (e.g. inflation). We can't assume that a change to the economy is suddenly refracted everywhere in the economy instantly.

Reflexivity means neo-liberal economics cannot solve the evolution problem. They think economics is like track and field (man vs the static yardstick of nature) when its really like boxing (man vs man and all the deception and second-guessing it entails).

A huge conceit of Keynesians is you can just redeploy a load of investment bankers into building bridges as deficit spending.

Lastly, their fancy econometric values and all that black-scholes rubbish is based on the idea that value is inherent in the thing. So they really struggle with things like bubbles, euphoria and revulsion. It allows them to assert that an "illiquid" asset is "underpriced" and thus needs the government to buy it. They don't get that "illiquid" and "underpriced" are just verbal shortcuts to mean a collection of specific people in a specific place at a specific time don't value something as much as the economist thinks they should.

Anonymous said...

I agree with wunsacon as to the proximate causes of this. I abbreviate to: Bad leadership.
I do think that economics is better at description than prediction, or even explication. Kinda like the science of biology, pre-chemistry. Perhaps the computers will help economists achieve a similar "revolution" in their field of endeavor.

Lisa said...

Best post you've ever done. (even with the "female" remark LOL) Your rational mind really shows in your writing. Thank you!

benkay said...

fuck all those haters this is a good entry sir.

David J. Bauer, Ph.D. said...

"The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens."

--John Maynard Keynes

source: http://quotationsbook.com/quote/20875/

wunsacon said...

In light of the previous comment about "haters", I guess I have to explain that I read Ben's site every day, to (a) learn about "Really Scary Fed Charts" and technical analysis and/or (b) enjoy light-hearted posts like "Ninjas: They're Everywhere" and "Go Time". So, "hater" I most certainly am not.

Aaron said...

Even an artificial life, "agent-based", bottom-up computational approach will have to assign rules that govern the individual interacting agents. A general set of rules will probably always be reducible to something like the following:

1) People have rational preferences among an ordinal set of outcomes that can be identified and associated with an ordinal value that obtains with probabilistic certainty.

Whenever I got to parties and most of my rowdy whisky-drinking friends aren't there, I prefer to drink beer rather than liquor.

2) Individuals seek to maximize the value of an ordinal utility preference multiplied by the probability of that preference occurring (and firms maximize profits which is to say they prefer more money rather than less - duh!).

I drink beer to the point that I believe I probably won't get a hangover - and as I drink more beer my tendency to believe I'll probably get a hangover tends to go down (alcohol impairs my judgment especially regarding potential dangers) while the utility of drinking more beer tends to go up. As a result I get smashed even though the product of the utility of drinking beer times the probability of getting a hangover never changes. The product does not change - but the multiplication factors do, therein lies the rub!

3) People act independently insofar as they are neither automatons nor coerced - and they act on the basis of as much relevant information as possible which includes other people's "beliefs and expectations, perceptions and misperceptions".

Yes, I am talked into doing a round of shots by my rowdy whiskey drinking friends even though I prefer beer. But they didn't handcuff me and pour the whiskey down my throat. They didn't hypnotize me either. I made the independent choice albeit as a result of peer pressure which included beliefs about my innate manliness, expectations about how other's would perceive me, and fear of being misperceived as a yellow-bellied lightweight.


At any rate I'm not sure why you associate equilibrium theory with Keynes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_equilibrium_theory

Weber in Disguise said...

Ben, I don't wholly agree with you, but great post and I thank you for dealing with this theoretical argument at a core level.

Now, I will ask a few questions, and hope to push forward a few things I think are solutions (or at least some well directed logical reasoning) as I seek to deal with the base theoretical issues. In the first part of my response, I will deal with the construction of modern economics, with a more direct focus on neo-classical economics. So first I ask:

(1) What do we seek to understand through the study of 'economics'? The proposed answer tends to gravitate towards reasonings on the production, allocation and distribution of goods, and the forces that act to make this all happen. Some answers, for most people, seem straight forward, direct, and finally, meaningless. Good answers in this field were at first simple, and limited, common sense of yesterday.

Here are some more: some people are hungry, they buy food. Their incomes are low, they buy cheaper goods. People with a low standard of living and the same work ethic as the person with a high standard of living well net a greater benefit. By focusing on such details, economists came up with grand theories, but then held them as grand and infallible indicators of what was happening in the real world. If they didn’t agree with a grand theory’s indicators, to them be damned.

Further, economists, like many others, love to get wrapped up in making themselves feel important, so people with a lot of vigor, vitriol, and a need to keep their head large are predisposed to coming up with answers based on a few assumptions that hold all the way through. Such a confluence of intelligent and hyper-bookish people took place and was tied together with the (at the time new) Neo-Classical school, who recaptured these common sense ideas in mathematical equations. Math, being a significant, highly regarded tool in modern society was used as the infallible explanation for why the Neo-Classical economists were right. Such an obviously circular logic is mighty strong. This is where I’d love to add a great quote, though I don’t remember where it came from, that “nobody could tell you anything so inherently brilliant, yet correspondingly useless, as a mathematician.” Everyone gets to throw in their own mathematically or statistically or other-worldly derived explanation for Black Swans, or ‘things happen that we don’t expect,’ or ‘laws were made to be broken’ or whatever else right here.

I believe that this academic discipline (like most others) became most corrupted when it focused too much on a most military-like attention to details at the detriment of creativity, the lack of respect for the ways of old, a heavy handed manner of abstraction, and a disposal of history. Such a narrow attention to real world detail didn’t implicitly teach people bad theory, but when a discipline is built on a poor foundation, and then elevated to infallible status, it became like an empire in that it affirms itself with its greatness by its extensive existence, and garnering the respect it does, the leaders and the followers then discount callings from the outside. The Ivory Tower just gets a shiny new coat of paint. However, if we are truly at the end of an era, then we are also at a time of intellectual breakdown, and reconstruction. Further, although the title of economics may hold, its attention to certain basic details will be refocused.




This leads me to part (2), which asks: how did modern economics get to such a point?

1. After WWII, US GDP was about half of the world’s total, with great absolute and relative wealth combined with policies of redistribution – largely through government programs and unions – acted to create what was supposed to be an even more vigorous ‘free’ and ‘enlightened’ society. The construct of a post-war American Ideal largely derived from our national birthing process that was heavy on Western/Enlightenment intellectual thought, a continued influx of wealth and peace seeking immigrants, and a modern political-economic process that has so far sustained people’s beliefs within it. This is where all must grow, and that America must not stop in its quest to be a perfect nation heavily based on its internal construct of ideals as a reaffirmation of its greatness. Multiple populist-intellectual currents were developed that generally tied together this American Ideal and put it together with a concept that society is both now, and fleeting, and that any short deviation was complete failure.

2. These beliefs were further captured by leading political actors. Economics was folded into this process as an art and attempt at a science that tried to pull back the curtain by looking at an abstracted understanding of ‘economy’ and justified itself in measuring prosperity in a more detailed way. As such, the political process helped to bastardize economics through heavily abstracted, and data-free ‘theoretical’ research, and use at as an opportunity to justify policies that may obscure a realistic management of the future.

3. Concurrently, economics itself became a political-economic cottage industry, heavily tied to political leadership, the post-war college education explosion, the elevation of the academic discipline in the management of the financial industry, government budgeting, and the hierarchical nature of academia. After WWII with the GI Bill helped to send droves of students to college, making this a broad, ‘middle class’ rite of passage that had previously been kept to the elite, and a small slice of the urban population, and an incredibly small slice of the rural population. This was furthered by and the explosion of American industrialism and post-industrialism since that time, which has helped to maintain the United States’ relative political-economic position, which has been further compounded by the vast ‘debt super-bubble’ of which the more recent tech and housing bubbles sit upon. Comparative wealth mattered greatly throughout this time, further pushing the broad academic craze

4. As the ‘intellectual’ industry grew, so did its dependence on affirmation from the leading institutions. We call these our Ivy, or near Ivy League (e.g. Stanford, only excluded because it wasn’t in the original eight) institutions. The continuous selection of intellectuals from these schools to work in policy, and cross pollination of policy ‘experts’ into the academic field helped to bring prestige to these intellectuals and their institutions. The Ivies, with the prestige, phenomenal connections, and history of attraction of the best minds, subsequently brought in….more of the best minds. Other schools would hire those educated there, and so they came to dominate administration and lead the academic field. School administration reinforced these trends, along with the prestige of such awards as the Nobel Prize, and the introduction of academic economists to positions within the Fed and many major and influential banks. Many of these academic leaders were undeniably bright, creative, and smart as hell. That doesn’t mean they understood the worlds of business, banking, financial markets, or politics just because they played with complicated mathematical models and complex logic. Dealing with the day to day world in a day to day manner tends to be much more ‘enlightening’ than reading a book and claiming you ‘get it.’ Just as economics is a discipline that is affirmed with great attention to detail, so are many of these businesses their own discipline, yet only best understood by those who run them.

As such, we see the formation of the organization and institution of modern economics, culminating in its grand farce of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. I’m not going to waste my breath on that now. The rest of this argument will get a bit shorter. I’ve been writing this in one burst, and getting tired of it. Subsequently, I’ll leave off on the next half to another day. In that half, I will address the position of a few schools (loosely defined) of economic thought. These will include: Classical, neo-classical, Keynesian, neo-Keynesian, Austrian, monetarist, heterodox, behavioral, and I may also go into fiscal/budgeting theory (my profession). Following a short look at each of those theories, how they arose, and how they view our current predicament, I will try to contextualize these temporally heavy theories within a broader and more ‘longue duree’ (Annales School) understanding of ‘economy.’ I hope everyone has enjoyed.

Anonymous said...

Nice post. I agree with most of what you wrote, but don't get too carried away with modeling.

Not that I don't like models, they can be quite useful, but no amount of sophistication will ever be able to make economic models work like physical models. Here's one reason:

When you create a model (a good one anyway) you actually change the world which you were trying to model in the first place. People can and will hear about your research and change how they behave. The economist is not isolated from the world he is studying the way that, say, a chemist is.

Anonymous said...

A huge conceit of Keynesians is you can just redeploy a load of investment bankers into building bridges as deficit spending.


The Whip teaches!

K T Cat said...

Good post, but I think you're being too hard on the economic models. They make sense up to a point and it's knowing where the breaking point is that's the trick.

Where the Keynesians are failing today is that they don't realize the modern world is nothing at all like Keynes'. The blogger at UK Housing Bubble noted that Keynes grew up in a world where the governments were about half the size they are now and debt not nearly so large.

Like General Haig in WW I sending British infantry into barbed wire and machine guns, modern economists have not yet caught up with where we are today and are applying solutions which may have been effective before, but will be disastrous now.

eric p said...

Excellent Post - I'm sure it could easily be wrapped up and turned into a published article for a financial magazine or newspaper.

Brian Woods said...

Frederick Soddy (Nobel Laureat in Chemistry) - latter-day' 'underground economist'.

'Wealth, Virtual Wealth and Debt' 2nd ed. Omin Publications. 1933.

Taleb is good, but not great. Try Richard Bookstaber, 'A Demon of our own Design' Wiley, 2007. Very good.

Brian P

Anonymous said...

Great post!

For those interested and unfamiliar with this view of economics I HIGHLY recommend:

Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics
http://www.amazon.com/Origin-Wealth-Evolution-Complexity-Economics/dp/1422121038/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1228104057&sr=1-1

I read this in my last semester of getting my BA in Econ. It made me realize how worthless my degree is.

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