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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Fed Admits Quantitative Easing

Fed Commits $800 Billion More to Unfreeze Lending (Update1): “The Federal Reserve took two new steps to unfreeze credit for homebuyers, consumers and small businesses, committing up to $800 billion.

The central bank will purchase as much as $600 billion in debt issued or backed by government-chartered housing-finance companies. It will also set up a $200 billion program to support consumer and small-business loans, the Fed said in statements today in Washington.

With today’s announcement, the central bank is starting to use some of the unorthodox policy tools that Chairman Ben S. Bernanke outlined as a Fed governor six years ago. Policy makers are aiming to prevent a financial collapse and stamp out the threat of deflation.

“They’re trying to put funds into the system, trying to unfreeze these markets,” said William Poole, the former St. Louis Fed president, in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Clearly, the Fed and the Treasury are beginning to take a large amount of credit risk.”

The Fed will purchase up to $100 billion in direct debt of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks and up to $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities backed by Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie Mae, the statement said.”

Estimated U.S. GDP for 2008 is about $14.3 trillion (IMF). I mention that because today Federal Reserve announced a new facility and thereby all but admitting to a policy of quantitative easing. This puts the total amount of money pledged to various facilities and bailouts at about $8 trillion dollars… or 56% of GDP. (Total Breakdown of the U.S. Governments Bailout Efforts)

(You're children are going to hate you. They've been sold into debt slavery so you don't have to face the consequences of living beyond your means.)

Econompic Data goes into greater detail in Bailout Pledges More than $8 Trillion. This clearly means my Scary Fed Charts are going to get worse and the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet will continue to explode. Federal Receipts and Outlays have got to head in seriously opposite directions now. I’m talking the wrong way too, with outlays doing a moonshot while receipts go cliff diving.

The terrible tearing sound you’re barely hearing in the distance is the U.S. constitution and the U.S. social fabric simultaneously getting shredded.

None of this is surprising. The signs were there for all to see…

Related Posts:
From INFLATION to Instant DEFLATION
Zero Rate World, The Age of Free Money: We’re Doomed
ZIRP, Zero, Nada, Free Money and a Big Mess
Money Supply, Hoarding, Gold, Deflation: Tin Foil Hats
Japan Stuck, Quantitative Easing in the US
Closer to ZIRP, Liquidity Trap, Lost Decade
Japan v2.0: GLOBAL Liquidity Trap
Japan v2.0
The Lost Decade
Stimulus Package: Does it Even Work
DEFLATION is Here

The Really Scary Fed Charts Series:
1) Really Scary Fed Charts, Why Bernanke Will Furiously Cut
2) Fed CHANGES Really Scary Fed Charts
3) Really Scary Fed Charts: MARCH
4) Really Scary Fed Charts: APRIL
5) Really Scary Fed Charts: MAY, False Alarm?
6) Really Scary Fed Charts: JUNE, ‘Just’ 1% of GDP Now
7) Really Scary Fed Charts: JULY, More of the Same
8) Really Scary Fed Charts About to Get Crazy Scary
9) Really Scary Fed Charts: OCT, Now Crazy Scary
10) Really Scary Fed Charts: NOV, US Bankrupt?

43 comments:

Anonymous said...

The US will definitely default on its debt at this point. Either explicitly, or by causing such massive inflation that owners of debt sell it back to the US at pennies on the dollar.

mab said...

The terrible tearing sound you’re barely hearing in the distance is the U.S. constitution and the U.S. social fabric simultaneously getting shredded.

Sad but true. All in the name of bailing out foolishness and an unstable eCONomic system. more than 200 years of hard work and sacrifice is being trashed.

Trade well.

Anonymous said...

"""(You're children are going to hate you. They've been sold into debt slavery so you don't have to face the consequences of living beyond your means.)"""

hahahahahahahahaha......your children?! the media continues to push the pain off to 'other people'..YOU ARE GOING TO FEEL THE PAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!! it isnt going to take 35 years to cause problems.

Sam said...

What a disaster!

Anonymous said...

How ruinous has the W admin been?
Some comparisons:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/11/big-bailouts-bigger-buck
W what a W waste...

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S said...

The Gov't is convinced it can trap you in the system and then dilute you. Dr. doom and rogers qre correct: physical gold is the only thing left that the governement can not exporpriate, yet. The pain is coming and it will be profound.

Jason said...

With the Treasury Secretary on his spending spree he surely isn’t trying to get a good return on the tax payers’ investment. The bailout was to buy up bad mortgage debt but it never did. What is the purpose of the fund? Paulson’s has warrants on many banks and they average 1 – 3 percent when enacted. Yet the cash investment is about 20 percent of the market cap. Maybe the next Treasury Secretary will be less erratic.

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David J. Bauer, Ph.D. said...

(You're [sic] children are going to hate you. They've been sold into debt slavery so you don't have to face the consequences of living beyond your means.)

We've been mired in debt slavery since the establishment of a debt-based fractional reserve fiat currency. The debt was compounded by social welfare/ entitlement programs and an imperialistic foreign policy. Other factors, including living beyond our means and the government "encouraging" banks to substantially increase provision of loans to the subprime market, have certainly not helped.

Unfortunately, I'm not too hopeful about the future... we have unfunded liabilities in Medicare and Social Security approaching 100 trillion dollars coming due over the next couple decades. Hope you all like taxes, inflation, and socialism.

Drake said...

No worries, it isn't like as if any of 'em were in real money, it's only dollars.

Anonymous said...

I noticed you mentioned quantitative easing, and deflationary behavior by the Fed in your previous charts,

yet you mention nothing of the inflationary nature of the Fed becoming the "lender of last resort" for all financial concerns related to debt, bond, and money markets.

counting the trillons being pledged for this ever increasing swindle may be facinating, stunning, and even fun;

Yet at what point do you begin to translate the massive increases in liquidity into FRN debasement via electronically derived inflation?

Does the Fed have a hidden factory which outputs goods and services? If not, then is it not obvious that liquidity destruction in the short term, will be followed by massive inflation via quantitative easing resulting in currency weakening?

Brant said...

You mention your children will hate you for being sold into debt slavery. My wife and I don't have any yet and this larger economic situation is part of why we're holding off for several years to see what happens.

A moderately long story, my wife and I finally found each other late in life: I'm 42 she's 33. We're both educated, she more than me with education, finance, degrees and masters. We're working feverishly to pay the house off by early 2010. We're also using the time to see where this country is in that time. I think the next two years will determine where we go for decades/generations (if it hasn't been decided already).

We read all the time and are very squared away. We are thrifty, love our nieces/nephews, and enjoy when they visit. We would probably be awesome parents to counter the ignorant/selfish parents/adults that are out there both rich and poor. But before the horse is out of the barn, we can make the decision. Maybe in a couple years something good may have happened, but I fear what the young people of today are going to be saddled with, esp. those that have half way decent heads on their shoulders. The vast majority will probably be leaches.

Anyway a ramble and probably not very Thanksgivingy, but my thoughts on "your kids will hate you for being sold into debt slavery".

Brant, Atlanta, GA

Mberenis said...

Most people don't realize how much money there is out there. During economic times like this, there is more money to be had than ever. Because of the bailouts and economy, lenders are bending over backwards to bail you out too. Believe it or not, there is people getting tons of cheap money nowdays to start businesses, buy homes, pay off debt, and more. Bailouts for Everyone

Anonymous said...

THE GOVERNMENT IS LYING TO US

I don't know if the Central Banks and Treasuries are lying to the world leaders, or if they're all in on this and lying to everyone else (Congress, the media, the people), BUT THEY ARE LYING. And they are grossly overstepping their Constitutional bounds in the US.

What they are doing does not make any sense based on what they are saying. At all. If they're worried about deflation or severe recession/depression, stimulation is fine, BUT NOT THIS LEVEL OF STIMULATION. The US government is pledging money faster than the rate at which the ENTIRE US ECONOMY runs. If they are worried about unemployment, THEY COULD DIRECTLY EMPLOY THE ENTIRE COUNTRY FOR THIS AMOUNT OF MONEY.

There's only two trains of thought that would cause them to act this way:

1) The US is completely bankrupt and will be unable to pull itself out of this, so they are incurring as much debt as possible before they default.

2) They are trying to backstop and prevent ALL MAJOR BANKRUPTCIES to prop up the credit default swap (CDS) market while they try to figure out how to restructure and regulate that market.

I think they are operating under #2, but the CDS market is probably at least $60 Trillion by now, and is out of the reach of even the entire world acting in coordination to hold together. So they are going to get #1.

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