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Wednesday, February 18, 2009

2% Default and the Fed Becomes Insolvent

The end of the fiat money, fractional reserve banking experiment is inching ever closer...

Since the Fed is buying what the market doesn't want, you can be certain the default rate will exceed 2%.

[ snip ]

But what new assets is the Fed acquiring? The Fed has already started buying the debts of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mae, and the Federal Home Loan Banks. It has also bought mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Bernanke is also considering buying other securities backed by consumer loans, credit card loans, or student loans. Long-term government debt is also on the list of assets that the Fed might buy.

In the analysis of the Fed balance sheet and the condition of the dollar, another detail is extremely important. The equity ratio in the Fed balance has fallen from about 4.5 to 2%.

This figure implies an increase of the Fed's leverage from 22 to 50. As we have seen there are large new positions of dubious quality on the Federal Reserve balance sheet. More specifically, should only 2% of the Fed's assets go into default — or if there is a loss in value of 2% — the Fed becomes insolvent.

[ snip ]

The full article The Insolvency of the Fed can be found at the Ludwig von Mises Institute.

65 comments:

Anonymous said...

Interesting that the article you refer to mentions that the Fed could revalue its gold holdings. Now if those holdings are no longer there, in other words most of the gold has already been leased to the bullion banks, it means those holdings by the Fed are just so much paper. No REAL gold at all. Just a debt from the banks to the Fed, a result of 15 or more years of gold price suppression such as Rubin's "strong dollar" policy under Clinton and on-going since then. The Fed's gold holdings don't (as far as I know) get an independent audit !
The Fed would now be in a real bind because those banks WILL have to go to the market to get the gold to repay the Fed.
See what I mean about a potential short squeeze ?
Josh

Anonymous said...

Hey Anon/Josh that's a pretty big 'if'.

Anonymous said...

Insolvent?
As in "cannot meet obligations as they come due"?
Not so sure that the concept of "solvency" applies, without qualifications, to this quasi-governmental, non-commercial entity.
Is there a question of the Fed not being able to make payments that it is legally obliged to make? Who shall force the Fed into declaring bankruptcy or obtain a Court Order - a legal determination of insolvency?
Or is there some problem on the "income" side? Has the Congress lost its power to tax, or its will to maintain the Fed?
I may be wrong, but "solvency" means to be able to keep those "payments out" ongoing. It does not matter as to what color ink is being used on the ledger, provided that the flow continues.
I do not think the flow of funding to (and perforce, from) the Fed is in danger of "drying up" anytime soon.
The Fed is not a donut shop, or even a commercial bank...and "insolvency" has technical and precise legal meaning, as well as a "loose-talk" meaning.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous:

Yes, insolvent, as in Liabilities > Assets aka negative equity. The concept to which you refer is illiquid (meeting obligations when they're due).

-Mike J

Anonymous said...

Ah so.
Functionally, then,
Illiquidity (sic) > insolvency:
for 'tis the illiquidity which constitutes the evil:
who really cares if yer "insolvent" so long as the bills get paid? When due?

Anonymous said...

Also, so long as the bills get paid when due, whose business is it, precisely, as to whether you are "insolvent" or no?

Robert E. said...

Say the works, Kill the Fed, Kill the Fed as the end of Fiat money and endless debt is nigh. Great post for sure. Silver as the backing agent for money is not a bad idea. Gold can be a reference point but it's too rare to be viable in this resource starved world.

The perfect storm looms.

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