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Friday, February 13, 2009

Goldman Sachs: This Pig too Will Fall

I fail to see how it is even remotely possible for Goldman Sachs (GS) to find enough revenue generating opportunities in this environment to justify their current business model. Mergers and acquisitions? Initial public offerings? Scuritizations Proprietary trading? EVERYTHING has collapsed in total volume AND won't come back for years... with a lot of it NEVER coming back at all. The firm as a whole now has to deleverage and make the switch to life as a 'bank holding company'.


GS peaked around $248 and hit a low of $47.41. GS has been out performing both the broader market and financials. This bounce to about $100 is good enough to start easing into the beginnings of a massive short position. This pig will roll over soon enough... and then it won't come back.

Never forget, GS also has one of the single largest piles of Level III 'Assets'. We haven't heard anything about them in a while now...

29 comments:

Anonymous said...

If there is on company I would like to see blown out of the water it's these pricks. I'm gonna help them all I can.

Ben Green said...

Ben, I have been reading your blog for months now. This may be hands down the best short pick I have seen you come up with. I trade from more of a fundamentals basis than technicals, but even on those grounds this thing is WAY expensive. Revenues are down 50%+ year over year and closer to 75% quarterly.

Based on current share price it has a market cap of $45B!!!! This type of firm should not sell for more than one time sales which are probably going to normalize around $10-15B.

Well see what happens, but thank you for pointing this out.

Anonymous said...

Yes I am already short JPM. I will now go short GS and it will give me a huge amount of pleasure
Josh

Anonymous said...

Ben,

Would like to see the puerco fall, as well.

But GS has Treasury in their hands with Timmy Turbotax, right?

I think they save this company?

Boat52 said...

The chaps at GS have already picked out a corner office for Tim. He knows it cause Prince Hank told him.

While it may be a great short, the powers will cause as much pain as possible for those on the short side of the trade.

Victor Berry said...

Ben,

It's one thing to take a bite out of the Apple as you did successfully, but do you really want to try and take a bite out of the balls of a bull? GS is not only a bull, it is as the Rolling Stones once sang "a mad bull, lost its way." The best of luck with that from the rest of us whimps/wussies watching from the arena sidelines.

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