China, Cleverly Dumping US Dollars

FN: China is dumping dollars, but far more cleverly than you might think.

Immobilienblasen has noticed a rather curious tendency for China to overpay in "China Inc." Deal Premiums. What exactly is that all about?

Well, imagine you had a bunch of money... err... US dollars for example. You've also got a bunch more of these US dollars coming in daily. You don't believe they will hold their value. So you don't really want them. That is quite a problem.

The first trick is to get rid of them... without actually seeming to get rid of them. The second trick is to get rid of them in such as way as to not destroy their value.... yet.

The single best way to do this of course is to use your US dollars to buy hard assets. This looks "normal". It isn't nearly as obvious as "diversifying" your currency reserves. China is doing exactly that. The "China recovery" story is nothing of the sort. The Chinese demand for commodities is not a function of economic growth but rather a function of hoarding. There are Consequences to this Phantom Commodity Bull Market which will become apparent soon enough.

China has been buying into oil with size and at a premium. This has analysts puzzled:

"Sinopec’s offer is equivalent to $34 a barrel of proved reserves and $14 a barrel of proved and probable reserves. The African transaction average in 2007, when the average crude price is similar to current prices, was $14.40 a barrel for proved reserves and $9.90 for proved and probable reserves, respectively. On a proved basis, the 2007 average suggests $3.1 billion total value for the deal. Therefore, $7.2 billion implies a 135% premium."

But when it becomes obvious to investors the world over that a US dollar devaluation is the only possible way to manage the kind of debt burden the US has accumulated, those premiums will vanish instantly. Oil quoted in US dollars could easily make new highs beyond $147 in such a scenario. China will not only have safe guarded the wealth of its citizens by owning oil fields, but will also have increased the global political power of the country thru the acquisition these strategic assets.

While the US empire has stumbled and is desperately trying to avoid a faceplant, the Chinese have taken the opportunity to break out into a sprint. Even in a best case scenario where the US pulls off a miraculous recovery, valuable ground will have been lost and the global balance of power will never again be the same.

China Reiterates Call for New World Reserve Currency (Update4): "China’s central bank renewed its call for a new global currency and said the International Monetary Fund should manage more of members’ foreign-exchange reserves, triggering a decline in the U.S. dollar.

“To avoid the inherent deficiencies of using sovereign currencies for reserves, there’s a need to create an international reserve currency that’s delinked from sovereign nations,” the People’s Bank of China said in its 2008 review released today. The IMF should expand the functions of its unit of account, Special Drawing Rights, the report said.

The restatement of Governor Zhou Xiaochuan’s proposal in March added to speculation that China will diversify its currency reserves, the world’s largest at more than $1.95 trillion. Chinese investors, the biggest foreign owners of U.S. Treasuries, reduced holdings by $4.4 billion in April to $763.5 billion after Premier Wen Jiabao expressed concern about the value of dollar assets. That reduction came a month after China boosted its holdings by $23.7 billion to a record.
“Zhou Xiaochuan sees the current international financial system is flawed, putting too much emphasis on the dollar as a reserve currency,” said Kevin Lai, an economist with Daiwa Institute of Research in Hong Kong.

President Barack Obama needs the support of China as the U.S. tries to spend its way out of recession. The Dollar Index that measures the currency’s performance against six trading partners fell as much as 0.8 percent to 79.779 at 1:11 p.m. in London. U.S. Treasuries were little changed with the 10-year yield at 3.53 percent."