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Monday, June 22, 2009

Second Major Distribution Day, Support Smashed

Prices couldn't stay above the 200 day EMA (green line) for long... and broke through the 20 day EMA (blue line) that acted as support off the March lows. On Friday, NYA failed at the 20 day EMA pounded straight thru the rising 50 day EMA (red line) today. This is not good for the "Green Shoots" crowd.

June 15th and June 22nd mark the first cluster of "Major Distribution Days" in a while.

The trend has definitely changed from 'bounce' to down.


Vijay said...

Ben, I caught a big wave down in April (went short before April 20th), and I remember asking you at the time what might change your opinion. I was worried then that the 50SMA would act as support (and it did). So I present the same question to you: what would give you pause? Is there a technical level where the market moves above where you'd have to rethink your view on the change of direction from up to down?

Btw, I've thought that this rally feels very similar to the same time last year. That rally went from March 17 to May 19th. This one went from March 6th, and eerily I thought it died at May 8th (2 months and 2days exactly for both). Turns out it looks like it had 10 more days above May 8th, but again it feels very similar to me.


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jay paul said...

Nice post! Can’t wait for the next one. Keep stuff like this coming.

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