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Thursday, November 13, 2008

The Five Stages of Collapse, Where Are We?


Stage One of the Five Stages of Collapse is Financial Collapse. Take a look at the charts in Really Scary Fed Charts: NOV, US Bankrupt? It would appear that stage one is well under way.

It is critically important to arrest the collapse at Stage One. A fire break is required to halt the contagion. Stage Two is Commercial Collapse. You do not want to get to Stage Two, because once it manifests in the real economy it becomes almost impossible to halt and reverse. The US and the world are dangerously close to commercial collapse as evidenced by the complete and utter destruction of the Baltic Dry Shipping Index.

The Five Stages of Collapse by Dmitry Orlov (Click on the link for the original article including Power Point slides.)













52 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why won't the Chart "click& enlarge"?

Anonymous said...

Ben,

For some reason, clicking on the chart doesn't open it. Just FYI.

-Mike J

p.s. tradeable bottom here?

Ben Bittrolff said...

Fixed it. Thanx.

AphexMandelbrot said...

Today is going to hurt.

Not the head-on hurt that we have hurtling toward us; but today is going to be super-disco-stock-exchange-party - only with knives.

These Q4 adjustments are vicious.

Anonymous said...

So do you see hyperinflation developing rather than deflation?

Anonymous said...

Chart "works" now thanks.

Anonymous said...

Deflation, followed by hyper-inflation?
Was the last deflation in the US in the early fifties? Or do you have to go back to the thirties?
Either way the Boomers are unfamiliar with the thing...so they tend to see inflation as the only possible "bad" outcome?
Speaking of hyper-inflation, how did germany overcome the Weimar inflation? Military spending?
Sorry for running on I guess I'll look it up on the Web....

Nick von Mises said...

Good post. I read Orlov's "Reinventing Collapse" a few months ago. Very interesting as a possible future. I think it is a much bigger risk in the emerging markets and the US (due to geographical size and urban planning based on the motor car) than in Europe where everything is close together and every region is fertile.

Anonymous said...

cultural collapse!!??!

Anonymous said...

Gold, my man, gold. Those who don't have 10% of their assets in physical, secured gold as portfolio insurance are stealing money from other passengers on the Titanic while not securing a lifeboat to get away alive...

It's not "gold bug," it's "common sense."

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