Fed Defies Transparency Aim in Refusal to Disclose (Update1): “The Federal Reserve is refusing to identify the recipients of almost $2 trillion of emergency loans from American taxpayers or the troubled assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in September they would comply with congressional demands for transparency in a $700 billion bailout of the banking system. Two months later, as the Fed lends far more than that in separate rescue programs that didn't require approval by Congress, Americans have no idea where their money is going or what securities the banks are pledging in return.
“The collateral is not being adequately disclosed, and that's a big problem,” said Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Boston- based Loomis Sayles & Co., where he co-manages $17 billion in bonds. “In a liquid market, this wouldn't matter, but we're not. The market is very nervous and very thin.”
Bloomberg News has requested details of the Fed lending under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act and filed a federal lawsuit Nov. 7 seeking to force disclosure.
The Fed made the loans under terms of 11 programs, eight of them created in the past 15 months, in the midst of the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression.”
While the Fed may be refusing to name individual firms, we can just look at the data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to pin down exactly where the $2 trillion of emergency loans went. We can also determine how that in turn was deployed.
Total Borrowings of Depository Institutions from the Federal Reserve (BORROW) went from $290.105 billion in September to $648.319 billion in October. That is a 123.50% increase in just one month or a 1481.73% annualized increase. That is also 4.7% of GDP (2007). Currently, there is no evidence at all that the pace of borrowing is slowing down. Obviously, there is an upper limit somewhere.
Non-Borrowed Reserves of Depository Institutions (BOBNONBR) went from -$187.305 billion in September to -$332.750 billion in October. That is a 77.65% increase in just one month or a 931.82% annualized increase. That is also 2.4% of GDP (2007). In plain simple English: Banks are insolvent as a group. The money coming out of the ATM is money borrowed from the Fed. Currently, there is no evidence at all that the health of banks is improving.
Total Borrowing (BORROW) and Non-Borrowed Reserves (BOBNONBR) have clearly blown past each other as the ponzi scheme that was the US financial system finally and suddenly unraveled. This is EXACTLY what happened in Japan. This is EXACTLY how Japan ‘liquefied’ it’s overleveraged, overextended and insolvent banks. Creating the infamous Japanese ‘zombie’ banks resulted in deflation and economic stagnation that is now referred to as the Lost Decade.
Total Borrowings (BORROW) can be broken down into its various sources. Discount Window Borrowings of Depository Institutions from the Federal Reserve (DISCBORR) are one such source. Discount Window Borrows went from $140.291 billion in September to $403.541 billion in October. That is a 187.65% increase in just one month or a 2251.75% annualized increase. Interestingly enough, the discount window wasn’t really tapped until September, with borrowings in August only being $18.078 billion. Clearly, this is a new source of funds for financial firms and may have to do with the fact that Bernanke has removed the negative stigma of tapping the window. He has also made almost everybody and his mamma eligible. Collateral requirements have also been severely degraded to the point where a dead donkey would probably qualify.
Federal Reserve Discount Window:
FAQs
Collateral Margin Table
Term Auction Credit (TERMAUC) is just one of the many facilities desperately created by Bernanke. Borrowings went from $149.814 billion in September to $244.778 billion in October. That is a 63.39% increase in just one month or a 760.66% annualized increase. That is also 1.8% of GDP (2007).
Term Auction Facility:
FAQs
Terms and Conditions fro Term Auction Facility
Term Auction Facility Schedule
Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions (EXCRESNS) went from $60.051 billion in September to $267.902 billion in October. That is a 346.13% increase in just one month or a 4153.49% annualized increase. That is also 1.9% of GDP (2007). From June up to September, Excess Reserves hovered around the $2 billion mark. This rather large and sudden jump can signify only one thing: BANK HOARDING. Having completely ‘done their asses’ by extending cheap and easy credit to anybody and anything that could fog a mirror, these super-star banksters are now sitting on their cash, paralyzed by fear. They also know that their sham accounting can only postpone the inevitable and they are clearly gearing up to take further significant losses on their balance sheets. Eventually that CDO made up of dead MBS’s, made up of dead condo loans now sitting in a Level 3 Asset Bucket is going to be marked to market. The banksters must hoard desperately…
The Board of Governors Monetary Base (BOGAMBNS) went from $900.672 billion in September to $1126.244 billion in October. That is 25.04% increase in just one month or a 300.54% annualized increase. For all you gold-bug hyper inflationistas that are drooling over this chart: This is NOT, I repeat, NOT inflationary. This is in fact EVIDENCE of DEFLATION! (Ha! They don’t teach that in school.) First, see the EXCRESNS chart for evidence of bank hoarding behavior. Second, debts AND assets are being liquidated. This results in a massive increase of cash and cash equivalents. However, this process destroys both debt and assets values. Simplified, money is being destroyed on a grand scale. What BOGAMBNS is measuring is but a small component of what qualifies as ‘money’ that HAPPENS to wildly increase as ‘money’ in the broader sense is annihilated.
Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks (WRESBAL) jumped from $260.924 billion in September to $493.633 in October. That is a 89.19% increase in just one month or a 1070.24% annualized increase. That is also 3.6% of GDP (2007). This is the result of a fancy new rule that Bernanke stuck into the TARP rescue package legislation. The Federal Reserve now pays interest on deposits. Since the banksters don’t trust each other anymore they take that hoarded cash and dump it on the Fed. The Fed then turns around and dumps it back on them thru the various facilities. The entire circle jerk is paid for by the US taxpayer. By paying interest on the reserve balances, the Fed is effectively recapitalizing the banks by stealth. The money for the interest of course comes straight out of your pocket. (To pay the interest, the Treasury issues more debt which you pay for thru increased taxes… later. Don’t worry though; a re-run of American Idol is probably on tonight. So everything will be just fine. Just don’t get off the couch you complacent fat bastards. Don’t you dare rock the boat; especially now that it’s sinking.)
Reserve Bank Credit (RSBKCRNS) has jumped from $1054.506 billion in September to $1740.17 in October. That is a 65.02 % increase in just one month or a 780.27% annualized increase. That is also 12.6% of GDP (2007). To pay for all these fun facilities and to create these ‘zombie’ banks, the reserve bank credit now sits at $1.7 trillion. Don’t worry though, wards of the state such as Fannie Mae (FNM) and AIG (AIG) are doing just fine…
Fannie Mae Reports Record Loss After Asset Writedowns (Update3): “Fannie Mae posted a record quarterly loss as new Chief Executive Officer Herbert Allison slashed the value of the mortgage-finance provider's assets by at least $21.4 billion and said it may need to tap federal funds next year.
In its first report since being seized by the U.S. government in September, Washington-based Fannie said its third- quarter net loss widened to $29 billion, or $13 a share, the largest for any U.S. company this year.
[ snip ]
[ snip ]
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson pledged to invest as much as $100 billion in each company as needed to keep their net worth positive.
[ snip ]
[ snip ]
Fannie's financing agreement with the Treasury constrains its ability to issue debt, capping the total outstanding amount at 110 percent of the balance as of June 30. Fannie estimates that limit as $892 billion. As of Oct. 31, Fannie had $880 billion in total debt outstanding.”
Worried yet? You should be. Weep for the shortest lived super power ever. Weep for your country, for it has quickly and quietly imploded. The United States of America is bankrupt.
Don’t believe me? Read the paper title Is the United States Bankrupt? by Laurence J. Kotlikoff of the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS. (The paper may be somewhat complex for the laymen. I will post a simplification of the arguments and math in another post.)
The Really Scary Fed Charts Series:
1) Really Scary Fed Charts, Why Bernanke Will Furiously Cut
2) Fed CHANGES Really Scary Fed Charts
3) Really Scary Fed Charts: MARCH
4) Really Scary Fed Charts: APRIL
5) Really Scary Fed Charts: MAY, False Alarm?
6) Really Scary Fed Charts: JUNE, ‘Just’ 1% of GDP Now
7) Really Scary Fed Charts: JULY, More of the Same
8) Really Scary Fed Charts About to Get Crazy Scary
9) Really Scary Fad Charts: OCT, Now Crazy Scary
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in September they would comply with congressional demands for transparency in a $700 billion bailout of the banking system. Two months later, as the Fed lends far more than that in separate rescue programs that didn't require approval by Congress, Americans have no idea where their money is going or what securities the banks are pledging in return.
“The collateral is not being adequately disclosed, and that's a big problem,” said Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Boston- based Loomis Sayles & Co., where he co-manages $17 billion in bonds. “In a liquid market, this wouldn't matter, but we're not. The market is very nervous and very thin.”
Bloomberg News has requested details of the Fed lending under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act and filed a federal lawsuit Nov. 7 seeking to force disclosure.
The Fed made the loans under terms of 11 programs, eight of them created in the past 15 months, in the midst of the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression.”
While the Fed may be refusing to name individual firms, we can just look at the data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis to pin down exactly where the $2 trillion of emergency loans went. We can also determine how that in turn was deployed.
Total Borrowings of Depository Institutions from the Federal Reserve (BORROW) went from $290.105 billion in September to $648.319 billion in October. That is a 123.50% increase in just one month or a 1481.73% annualized increase. That is also 4.7% of GDP (2007). Currently, there is no evidence at all that the pace of borrowing is slowing down. Obviously, there is an upper limit somewhere.
Non-Borrowed Reserves of Depository Institutions (BOBNONBR) went from -$187.305 billion in September to -$332.750 billion in October. That is a 77.65% increase in just one month or a 931.82% annualized increase. That is also 2.4% of GDP (2007). In plain simple English: Banks are insolvent as a group. The money coming out of the ATM is money borrowed from the Fed. Currently, there is no evidence at all that the health of banks is improving.
Total Borrowing (BORROW) and Non-Borrowed Reserves (BOBNONBR) have clearly blown past each other as the ponzi scheme that was the US financial system finally and suddenly unraveled. This is EXACTLY what happened in Japan. This is EXACTLY how Japan ‘liquefied’ it’s overleveraged, overextended and insolvent banks. Creating the infamous Japanese ‘zombie’ banks resulted in deflation and economic stagnation that is now referred to as the Lost Decade.
Total Borrowings (BORROW) can be broken down into its various sources. Discount Window Borrowings of Depository Institutions from the Federal Reserve (DISCBORR) are one such source. Discount Window Borrows went from $140.291 billion in September to $403.541 billion in October. That is a 187.65% increase in just one month or a 2251.75% annualized increase. Interestingly enough, the discount window wasn’t really tapped until September, with borrowings in August only being $18.078 billion. Clearly, this is a new source of funds for financial firms and may have to do with the fact that Bernanke has removed the negative stigma of tapping the window. He has also made almost everybody and his mamma eligible. Collateral requirements have also been severely degraded to the point where a dead donkey would probably qualify.
Federal Reserve Discount Window:
FAQs
Collateral Margin Table
Term Auction Credit (TERMAUC) is just one of the many facilities desperately created by Bernanke. Borrowings went from $149.814 billion in September to $244.778 billion in October. That is a 63.39% increase in just one month or a 760.66% annualized increase. That is also 1.8% of GDP (2007).
Term Auction Facility:
FAQs
Terms and Conditions fro Term Auction Facility
Term Auction Facility Schedule
Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions (EXCRESNS) went from $60.051 billion in September to $267.902 billion in October. That is a 346.13% increase in just one month or a 4153.49% annualized increase. That is also 1.9% of GDP (2007). From June up to September, Excess Reserves hovered around the $2 billion mark. This rather large and sudden jump can signify only one thing: BANK HOARDING. Having completely ‘done their asses’ by extending cheap and easy credit to anybody and anything that could fog a mirror, these super-star banksters are now sitting on their cash, paralyzed by fear. They also know that their sham accounting can only postpone the inevitable and they are clearly gearing up to take further significant losses on their balance sheets. Eventually that CDO made up of dead MBS’s, made up of dead condo loans now sitting in a Level 3 Asset Bucket is going to be marked to market. The banksters must hoard desperately…
The Board of Governors Monetary Base (BOGAMBNS) went from $900.672 billion in September to $1126.244 billion in October. That is 25.04% increase in just one month or a 300.54% annualized increase. For all you gold-bug hyper inflationistas that are drooling over this chart: This is NOT, I repeat, NOT inflationary. This is in fact EVIDENCE of DEFLATION! (Ha! They don’t teach that in school.) First, see the EXCRESNS chart for evidence of bank hoarding behavior. Second, debts AND assets are being liquidated. This results in a massive increase of cash and cash equivalents. However, this process destroys both debt and assets values. Simplified, money is being destroyed on a grand scale. What BOGAMBNS is measuring is but a small component of what qualifies as ‘money’ that HAPPENS to wildly increase as ‘money’ in the broader sense is annihilated.
Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks (WRESBAL) jumped from $260.924 billion in September to $493.633 in October. That is a 89.19% increase in just one month or a 1070.24% annualized increase. That is also 3.6% of GDP (2007). This is the result of a fancy new rule that Bernanke stuck into the TARP rescue package legislation. The Federal Reserve now pays interest on deposits. Since the banksters don’t trust each other anymore they take that hoarded cash and dump it on the Fed. The Fed then turns around and dumps it back on them thru the various facilities. The entire circle jerk is paid for by the US taxpayer. By paying interest on the reserve balances, the Fed is effectively recapitalizing the banks by stealth. The money for the interest of course comes straight out of your pocket. (To pay the interest, the Treasury issues more debt which you pay for thru increased taxes… later. Don’t worry though; a re-run of American Idol is probably on tonight. So everything will be just fine. Just don’t get off the couch you complacent fat bastards. Don’t you dare rock the boat; especially now that it’s sinking.)
Reserve Bank Credit (RSBKCRNS) has jumped from $1054.506 billion in September to $1740.17 in October. That is a 65.02 % increase in just one month or a 780.27% annualized increase. That is also 12.6% of GDP (2007). To pay for all these fun facilities and to create these ‘zombie’ banks, the reserve bank credit now sits at $1.7 trillion. Don’t worry though, wards of the state such as Fannie Mae (FNM) and AIG (AIG) are doing just fine…
Fannie Mae Reports Record Loss After Asset Writedowns (Update3): “Fannie Mae posted a record quarterly loss as new Chief Executive Officer Herbert Allison slashed the value of the mortgage-finance provider's assets by at least $21.4 billion and said it may need to tap federal funds next year.
In its first report since being seized by the U.S. government in September, Washington-based Fannie said its third- quarter net loss widened to $29 billion, or $13 a share, the largest for any U.S. company this year.
[ snip ]
[ snip ]
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson pledged to invest as much as $100 billion in each company as needed to keep their net worth positive.
[ snip ]
[ snip ]
Fannie's financing agreement with the Treasury constrains its ability to issue debt, capping the total outstanding amount at 110 percent of the balance as of June 30. Fannie estimates that limit as $892 billion. As of Oct. 31, Fannie had $880 billion in total debt outstanding.”
Worried yet? You should be. Weep for the shortest lived super power ever. Weep for your country, for it has quickly and quietly imploded. The United States of America is bankrupt.
Don’t believe me? Read the paper title Is the United States Bankrupt? by Laurence J. Kotlikoff of the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS. (The paper may be somewhat complex for the laymen. I will post a simplification of the arguments and math in another post.)
The Really Scary Fed Charts Series:
1) Really Scary Fed Charts, Why Bernanke Will Furiously Cut
2) Fed CHANGES Really Scary Fed Charts
3) Really Scary Fed Charts: MARCH
4) Really Scary Fed Charts: APRIL
5) Really Scary Fed Charts: MAY, False Alarm?
6) Really Scary Fed Charts: JUNE, ‘Just’ 1% of GDP Now
7) Really Scary Fed Charts: JULY, More of the Same
8) Really Scary Fed Charts About to Get Crazy Scary
9) Really Scary Fad Charts: OCT, Now Crazy Scary
Posts
77 comments:
The Fed is transparent in that it is subject to the oversight of Congress. Is twice a year not fast enough? The intent of Congress in shaping the Federal Reserve Act was to keep politics out of monetary policy. Legislation requires that the Federal Reserve reports annually on its activities to the Speaker of the House of Representatives.
http://nomedals.blogspot.com
nice consolidation! i've been monitoring this as well and concur with your analysis.
still awhile before our sovereign debt rating gets reduced, but closer every day. i've studied the requirements of the rating agencies on sovereign debt and curious to see if they will follow their own guidelines.
mY guess is, that YOUR money is bailing out the BULLION banks, who have been leasing "gold papir" at <1%, but have to REPAY the gold price, which is up from 300$ to 7-800$.
? DID they buy stocks with this money..???? haha
Just like the Yen carry at 1%, but the Yen has risen 20-30%.
This is NOT investing, this is GAMBLING.
Well American's, I will NEVER buy US made things again, as it comes from a SICK and CRIMINAL Corperation.
GM.....fuck them, JAP cars are better.
Coca cola..pay no TAXES over here in DK.....WATER is FREE
FED.... satans greedy devils....
NO DOLLARS....BUY Gold & silver & call the scam
AND today, the US has admitted, that they dropped 4 nukes on Greenland, but only found 3....
AGAIN....USELESS...or DUMB.
GOOD luck over there with 300 million guns.
THIS could be a really good MOVIE.
Thank you Ninja, a superb mail.
Partly of course the graphs reflect the fact of market being quite broken.
Banks do not dare to lend to each others, so FED is acting as clearing-house in between.
Also for time FED is actually the first and the last resource of money, as none can be had at any reasonable price from the market. (Soon we can leave the "reasonable" away from the sentence.)
How we could get back to normal market conditions, is very difficult to see. Like Krugman said: "Professionally, I'm fascinated. As a citizen, I'm terrified."
"The intent of Congress in shaping the Federal Reserve Act was to keep politics out of monetary policy."
Wrong, the intent of Congress was to create the largest monetary trust (monopoly) on Earth, a government-granted monopoly created designed to gradually whittle away the wealth of American citizens and transfer it to the federal government via deficit spending and monetary inflation.
Try spinning it all you want, but that is the net result of the creation of the Federal Reserve. It was an unconstitutional act (read the U.S. constitution to see what I mean) on the same level of treasonous behavior as this year's bailout bill.
I do "enjoy" these fed chart compilations from spring to now.....and will enjoy future ones. Back in the spring, wasn't there some Fed frontman/woman saying really nothing to be alarmed at these vast straight ups/downs?....Wonder where they are now?
Sent links of you, Karl, st louis fed charts (for THE source) to a NY friend to forward to his address book if he saw fit. He sent me his following MSM/CNBC take on things:
The stock market actually precedes the general economy by about 6 – 9 months, and I think it has bottomed out, which means that the general economy (currently with an unemployment rate of about 6 and a half percent) should bottom out in about 6 – 9 months (with the unemployment rate bottoming out at around 7 and a half percent, nothing like the 25% rate during the Great Depression).
I don’t think that it will rocket back up-or what the economists call a “pointed” bottom….I think that it will be a “broad/flat” bottom and very slowly (maybe a little better than lethargically) start to go up again.
Brant here again: Well, I tried. These are great "normal" results/finalities, but I don't think these are "normal" times.
I like the post quoting Krugman. I'm only a citizen but am fascinated & terrified. Fortunately, I'm pretty frugal and don't require "much". I know how to live w/out flat screen TVs, SUVs, 6,000 sf house, etc. I have an awesome father-in-law who has a hobby (soon necessity?) ~1 acre garden. He grows corn, potatoes, tomatoes, beans, peas, peppers, corn, some peanuts, & has pecan trees, etc.
Brant, Atlanta, GA
Someone hold me!
Again, take a look at the results...firming up more every day.
What happens if the US goes BK? If the current AAA rating went into the Bs, wouldn't the value of the dollar go down? I'm not looking forward to this. Iceland's experience has not been pretty to date.
The chance of American rating agencies to downrate America, is pretty remote.
But then, the game was rigged from the start...
Ha. You're making an assumption that the dollar is "money". It's paper. Printed paper. Redo your fancy charts with real currency please. Understand that concept, and you'll understand that this is all inflationary. If you don't think this is inflationary, then you're living in a bizarro (or is that Zimbabwe?) world.
I'm a superstar banker,
sitting in my hood;
Congress is in my pocket doing what it should;
I'm a superstar banker, feeling really, pretty good;
Got the prettiest wife, girlfriend, and a stash;
When the world goes up in
flames I'll be sitting on all my cash;
I'm a superstar banker,
thanks for all your help;
Phuq u, Phuq u.
As usual, good post, but I should point out two things about the paper you referenced for the other readers: It was written in 2006, and the person who wrote it is not part of the Fed (at least I don't think he is).
As irony would have it, the captcha I needed to copy to post this was "scarin."
"This is EXACTLY how Japan ‘liquefied’ it’s overleveraged, overextended and insolvent banks. Creating the infamous Japanese ‘zombie’ banks resulted in deflation and economic stagnation that is now referred to as the Lost Decade."
The Japanese had trade and budget surpluses which allowed them time to not implode. We do not have those luxuries. It always leaves me with a Weimar Republic itch that I must scratch although my moniker does put me in the deflationist camp. As I said, it's just an itch.
SPECTRE: I think your itch may be on to something. With all the comparisons to Japan, people are missing the fact that while their government was stupid, our people are stupid. The Japanese people are rejecting the notion of their government just printing money and handing it out. Can you imagine Americans turning down free money? With an Obama presidency and a Pelosi house, we've got a recipe for unrestrained government reflation attempts. I can't imagine they won't just start printing as many dollars as it takes to raise the CPI.
Thank you for the charts, legends, analysis and comments.
you have obviously put much time and effort into making information available and easily accessable.
I commend you on your results and I am grateful to have found your blog.
Blessings to you Financial Ninja and may all your trades be positive.
love your blog good stuff
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