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Friday, January 9, 2009

Bear Wedge: Breakout?

I first warned about it in Good Start to the Year: Beware the Bear Wedge and mentioned it again in Non-Farm Worst Since 1945: Market Likes It. After some reflection, the market sobered up and by the open decided not to like it. By the close today the market really didn’t like it.


This raises the POSSIBILITY of a breakout of the Bear Wedge. Confirmation is still required, but it already feels good…

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

beware of bear wedgies.

Anonymous said...

Would you be williing to boil down a bear wedge(ie) to the "so what" impact? What does it mean? Yes, I am an economic and market neophyte, just a regular guy who has learned a bit from your posts, but who doesn't grasp some of the more sophisticated graphical analytics you present... Thanks for any explanation you have the time and desire to offer.

Craig

Anonymous said...

good stuff, Ben! Keep up the good work!

wunsacon said...

>> Craig @ January 9, 2009 10:37 PM

Imagine water cascading down a staircase. But, in the case of the bear wedge, each step slopes upward for a bit.

Usually, the market trends up on lower volume, while the subsequent selling occurs on higher volume -- high enough to force the market down to a lower step. At that point, the cycle might continue. Or, maybe the market will finally put in a bottom.

That's all I know. Ben knows much more than I do on trading. And ninjas.

eh said...

I'm definitely not comfortable being too short right now. It has the same feeling as early 2008 when a rally took hold. Too many people seem to believe the 'second half recovery' scenario -- how many times have I heard that in recent years? -- and are willing to put money on it.

Bala said...

UT has not reversed yet

Anonymous said...

Yeah, shawtie, shawwwtie, shake 'dem hips! Unh!

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