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Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Volatility Stretching into Oversold

The Volatility Index (VIX) is stretching down into oversold territory as measured by the 10/10 MA Envelope. However, that doesn't mean we can't continue to 'slide' down the envelope band a while longer.

Considering that equities are overbought as I’ve mentioned in McClellan Oscillator, Super Overbought, Bullish Percent Index, Flashing Warning Signs, and Good Start to Year, Beware Bear Wedge, I’m looking to sell equities on any weakness. The VIX being this oversold acts as confirmation of my ‘get ready to short massively’ bias…

Note: Normal technical analysis doesn’t apply to the VIX as it is a derivative of a derivates. However, some statistical measures such as MA Envelopes are still relevant and useful.

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