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Monday, January 5, 2009

Bullish Percent Index, Flashing Warning Signs

The NYSE Bullish Percent Index (BPNYA) has gone from 'holy shit, the world is going to end tomorrow' territory straight back into 'don't worry, be happy' territory. Both are extreme. It does make sense to scale out of those longs established in the last few months of 2008 and to start looking for enticing short candidates.

I said start. The sweet spot on the S&P 500 for index shorts is somewhere between 950 –1000. Individual stocks may present opportunities much earlier. For example I have completely exited my technology and financial long plays today, but still hold at least half of all my commodity plays. As mentioned early today in Oil, Another ‘Trouble in the Middle East’ Bounce I believe that oil itself and by extension various oil equities still have room to run…

The NYSE Bullish Percent is calculated each day by dividing two numbers:

1) The number of NYSE stocks which has "buy signals" on their Point and Figure charts. (P&F? Confused? Click here to get some education.)
2) The total number of NYSE stocks.

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