I agree with your analysis. Shorts got squeezed harder than ever yesterday and we're heading towards a retracement of the lows. How the market reacts over the next 2-3 weeks will determine how much confidence people have going forward.
With 2009 earnings set to be pretty low ($40-$50 S&P 500 share), there seems to be little chance that we're in a new bull market (given that we're already looking at a p/e of 16-20 forward looking earnings). seems pretty rich to me.
I always keep Gann in mind. A 9 year is nearly always a bull market. Check out past "9" years. However we all are fairly sure this is a bull market within a bear market. The only way a sustainable bull market can be is if we return to inflation or hyper inflation. That is not going to happen because the money is not getting to the real economy and the real economy is too busy paying down debt. Then there are the old sayings like "Sell in May and go away." If that doesn't work there is September October. That will produce a doozy of a bear ! For now I stay in PM stocks and cash.
The Financial Ninja is a collection of my thoughts and opinions about current economic and market conditions. These are not buy and sell recommendations. Use your head and do your own research. This is a forum to stimulate discussion and debate.
I started trading during the tech bubble when I was still in high school. My trading has financed my education and I have since completed a BA in Economics and an MBA with a concentration in Finance. I have worked as both a proprietary equity and fixed income derivatives trader.
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6 comments:
After a slight pullback, she's probably going much higher.
I think the BEAR is here today. A 500 Dow points down day today?
I'll second Anonymous...
" A 500 Dow points down"
it won't happen unless there is some big bad event.
Thanks for the update Ben.
I agree with your analysis. Shorts got squeezed harder than ever yesterday and we're heading towards a retracement of the lows. How the market reacts over the next 2-3 weeks will determine how much confidence people have going forward.
With 2009 earnings set to be pretty low ($40-$50 S&P 500 share), there seems to be little chance that we're in a new bull market (given that we're already looking at a p/e of 16-20 forward looking earnings). seems pretty rich to me.
I always keep Gann in mind. A 9 year is nearly always a bull market. Check out past "9" years. However we all are fairly sure this is a bull market within a bear market. The only way a sustainable bull market can be is if we return to inflation or hyper inflation. That is not going to happen because the money is not getting to the real economy and the real economy is too busy paying down debt. Then there are the old sayings like "Sell in May and go away." If that doesn't work there is September October. That will produce a doozy of a bear !
For now I stay in PM stocks and cash.
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