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Monday, October 27, 2008

Equity New Lows, Treasury Yields: Better?

Even as equities continued their plunge (NYA, grey area) into the Abyss, yields on the 10 year US Treasury (UST10Y, red, black line) did not break the lows made in May. From the September low, yields have been making a series of higher lows. Although a giant increase in treasury supply is definitely being priced in, it can also be argued that the bulk of the flight to quality trade has already taken place. In fact, some brave souls may now be reversing out of Treasuries and nibbling at equities.

Support for this theory can be found in the fact that despite new price lows in the NYSE Composite (NYA, grey area), the number of new lows (NYLOW, greay bar) have not spiked over 1000. Market internals are improving from hysterical levels. It would appear that bargains are being picked up and that fewer and fewer stocks are falling to new lows...