“The door is wide open for further rate cuts or anything else that might help the economy. The implication is that we'll see another half-point cut in December, if the prospects for the economy remain poor.'' -Allen Sinai, Decision Economics
Fed Signals Door `Open' for Cutting Rates to Lowest on Record: “Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he's ready to cut interest rates to the lowest level on record should the central bank's actions fail to stem the deepening economic slump.
Policy makers said yesterday that “downside risks to growth remain” even after their half-point reduction in the main rate to 1 percent. The Fed dropped a reference in its statement to threats from inflation, projecting “levels consistent with price stability'' in coming quarters.”
Yesterday we got one step closer. Already the market is expecting another 50 basis point cut to 0.50% in December. (See: Really Scary Fed Charts, Why Bernanke Will Furiously Cut. This post has become a monthly series.)
“Bernanke is drawing on an academic career studying the failed efforts to prevent the Great Depression, and yesterday's shift indicates he's prepared to revisit his 2003 commitment as a governor to lower rates to zero percent if necessary. Should lending fail to revive by December, the central bank will probably cut by another half point, said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley.”
In Japan 2.0 I argued the following:
“We are heading for Japan v2.0.
Think ZERO percent interest rates and think DEFLATION. Think LOST DECADE. Think DEPRESSION. Now make all that GLOBAL.
That is what we have to look forward to.”
We are heading for a Liquidity Trap. Believe it. DEFLATION is Here, inflation is what we had.
This mess will take a long long time to sort itself out. Just like Japan had their Lost Decade, so to will America.
Related Posts:
Japan 2.0
Japan 2.0: Liquidity Trap
The Lost Decade
Stimulus Package: Does it Even Work
DEFLATION is Here
Lost Decade
The Really Scary Fed Charts Series:
1) Really Scary Fed Charts, Why Bernanke Will Furiously Cut
2) Fed CHANGES Really Scary Fed Charts
3) Really Scary Fed Charts: MARCH
4) Really Scary Fed Charts: APRIL
5) Really Scary Fed Charts: MAY, False Alarm?
6) Really Scary Fed Charts: JUNE, ‘Just’ 1% of GDP Now
7) Really Scary Fed Charts: JULY, More of the Same
8) Really Scary Fed Charts About to Get Crazy Scary
9) Really Scary Fed Charts: OCT, Now Crazy Scary
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Closer to ZIRP, Liquidity Trap, Lost Decade,
Posted by
Ben Bittrolff
at
8:39 AM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)


24 comments:
the question nobody has really answered is this: if leverage continues to be wrung from the system and govts continue to print money, where should you be? cash in the form of us currency, or commodities? if/when hyperinflation actually hits, do you want to be in stocks again?
anon,
same question here too..
likes of faber saying gold should preform well in any market.
I agree with deflation however if we have this excessive printing and inflation our currency (hoarded now but will it be forever?).
all assets go down, usd still reserve currency does that mean that gold will deflate against the dollar and all currencies? Isn't it at a high with other currencies?
Is the USD losing value now? will it reverse and get stronger??
Before we know it at the speed of these markets, we could see the fall like a rock, in a deflation environment but would gold prices be high with deflation and falling usd?
CONFUSED!?!?!?
just buy a surfboard and CHILL. The 'callers' need a vacation to think things through.
The answer is that, despite what MR. Bitrolff says, gold and silver will increase relative to the USD. He is drawing on falty logic. Yes, there will be deflation for a good period of time going forward in most asset classes, but cash will not always be king. because this and this and this we have this. not.
Like you, I am in the deflation camp. Like you, I believe that the USA has created Japan Mark 2. What I do not know is this - what happened to all the money that Japan pumped into its system in the Nineties? Did it lead to ANY inflation? Hyperinflation? If not, why not?
All help gratefull received!
dome
all the money the Japs were creating was going into the carry trade - most of it in the US bond market. Some of it into Asian Companies. All that looks threatening to unwind.
If deflation hits, all the capital of the world would be sucked into the US Bond market. Which means that all other currencies would crash against the USD like the Krona (Iceland). Which means that gold will rise modestly in all other currencies except the dollar. That way gold will perform well in any market - except the USA.
This will not be acceptable for all those foreigners whose local markets would come crashing down - mostly the Europeans, Russians would usurp the reserve currency status of the USD. at this point gold will skyrocket & the dollar will crash.
I wonder about the direction of mortgage rates. Recession and deflation suggest they go down, but credit concerns suggest rates, or at least standards, go up. Will concerns about long-term US gov debt, which seem to be putting a ceiling on long bonds, also impact mortgage rates, keeping them higher than would usually be the case during a recession?
anon 12:15 - Yen went to carry trade, I understand. Japanese were savers, too, which meant that in deflation, they didn't want to borrow and spend inside of Japan - hence no price inflation - Yen inflation was exported by the carry trade.
Dollars - we have no savings, so desperate people will borrow when the rates hit zero (after the criminals, er, banks are recapitalized/consolidated/ nationalized and start to loan again). Paulson, Bernanke are VERY CLEAR - Liquidity will resume, no matter the price. When it does, there will be LOTS of cash in the system. Foreign govt's/SWF's will ditch their dollar holdings (already happening on the D/L), and a perfect typhoon of repatriated dollars not worth spit in a bucket.
My take, anyway.
I don't get you man.
What the hell do you mean by - 'We are heading for a Liquidity Trap'?
We are in it!
Prepare for the New World Economic Order
Interest Rates [Credit] are the Cause and Consequence of the Explosion of Income/Wealth Disparities and, Hence, of the Inherent Instability ofthis Economy:
The Ominous Keynes' Liquidity Trap,
Origin of the Economic Chaos.
Everyone Need an Economy, Don't They?
There Is One Solution That Works:
A Credit Free, Free Market Economy:
The New World Economic Order.
The Only Goal of 1776 - Annuit Cœptis is to Implement It.
They Can Transfer Their Assets & Forget Their Liabilities.
Anyone Can Join But Still Needs to Ask for It.
http://www.17-76.net/
The Purpose Is to Provide Both a New Deal and a New Game.
It is NOT to Fix This Economy Which is Already Beyond Repair.
The Intention Is to Create a New Economy
With the Assets of the Old One Without its Liabilities.
Why Not Insure Against the Worst Case Scenario?
網頁設計,情趣用品店,情趣用品專賣網
A片,色情A片,免費A片,成人影片,色情影片,a片免費看,情色貼圖,情色文學,情色小說,色情小說
AV,AV女優
polo shirtsugg boots
chaussure pumaLacoste polo shirtsralph lauren polo shirtschaussure sport chaussure nike cheap ugg boots
black ugg boots
nike tnEnter the necessary language
translation, up to 200 bytes winter, moves frequently in Chinanike chaussures showing that the deep strategy of the Chinese market. Harvard Business School, tn chaussures according to the relevant survey data show that in recent years the Chinese market three brands, Adidas, Li Ning market share at 21 percent, respectively,
Puma shoes , Ugg Boots , nike max shoes, NIKE AIR MAX TN ,nike max shoes ,PUMA CHAUSSURES, NIKE SHOX Torch ,puma Ferrari F1 ,PUMA DRIFT CATmens clothing men's sweate, cheap columbia jackets, lacoste sweater, ralph lauren polo shirts,ski clothing. Free Shipping, PayPal Payment. Enjoy your shopping experience on mensclothingstore.Us
chaussures puma stores offer you the most popular fashion shoes, including the puma basketpuma puma BanXie and shoes. All the puma product factory direct sale, special processing, create the most inexpensive puma stores.National Weather Service Meteorologist Jason puma CAT said this week's temperatures will mirror seasonable averages of highs around 71 and lows about 42 degrees ...
ralph Lauren polo shirts , Lacoste Polo Shirts, Burberry Polo Shirts.wholesale Lacoste polo shirts and polo ralph laurenwith great price. clothingol.com offers lot of 10 lacoste polo shirts and lot of 20 cheap polo shirts. clothingol.com offers classic fit polo shirts. polo clothing All our shirts made in original factory.
baskets puma future cat low engine noirBon March¨¦ Chaussure Sports Shop:puma future low catChaussure Puma Femme,Chaussure Puma Homme,Chaussure Nike Femme,Chaussure Nike homme,future cat low engineChaussure Sport et plus. Livraison Rapide.Paypal
cheap hair straighteners
chi hair straightener
chi flat iron
new polo shirts
cheap Lacoste polo shirts
cheap Lacoste polo shirts
cheap handbags
cheap bags
puma chaussures
chaussures puma
chaussure puma
Men's North Face
Women's North Face
hair straighteners
sexy lingerie store
cheap ugg boots
tattoo wholesale
men's clothing
women's clothing
2009 nike shoes
new nike shoes
Women's max
Men's max 93
nike shox
Nike air force
Nike air max 2003
nike air max ltd
nike air max tn
Nike air rift
Nike air Yeezy
nike airmax
Nike air max 90
Nike air max 97
nike birds nest shoes
nike dunk
nike RT1 shoes
nike SB
nike shox shoes
Nike shox OZ shoes
Nike shox R2 shoes
Nike shox R3 shoes
Nike shox R4 shoes
Nike shox R5 shoes
Nike shox TL3
nike trainers lovers
tennis rackets
Wilson tennis rackets
HEAD tennis rackets
Babolat tennis rackets
Ed hardy clothes in Hollywood is a very popular brand hot.Classic tattoo art and fashion classic elements included in the ed hardy clothing .Simple ed hardy t-shirts is also a work of art.Therefore it is not difficult to understand why a ed hardy shirts , simple lines is an array.Ed hardy sunglasses undoubtly are their necessary ornaments when go out. Ed hardy mens and ed hardy womens are very innovative in his admiration of the design.
Wholesale Handbags
Cheap Handbags
Womens Handbags
Cheap Purses
Designer Handbags
ralph lauren polo
burberry polo shirt
Wilson k factor KTour the flexibility of a good tennis racket is suitable for all type, doubles, singles players. Wilson k six shoot better on the first rotation speed to produce a very good help.Babolat aeropro drive Racquets is Nadal's babolat tennis racket used.In many places to be able to buy cheap tennis racquets.Babolat pure drive is a Babolat be proud of the company products, and a large number of professional tennis players to choose from, coupled with near-perfect design and adapt wider.
ralph lauren polo
Burbrery Polo Shirts
Cheap polo shirts
wholesale polo shirts
ralph lauren polo shirts
cheap ralph lauren polos
discount ralph lauren polos
polo clothing
Thanks ,ver ygood!
polo hoodies, spyder jacket, cheap spyder jacket, the north face jackets, polo shirts, ed hardy hoodies, polo long sleeves shirts, norther face jacket, POLO jacket, ed hardy boots, ed hardy shoes, ed hardy jacket, ed hardy ugg boots, Babolat Tennis Racquets, Tennis Racquets, nike shoes, puma shoes, nike air max, nike shox nz,
spyder jackets,
discount spyder jacket,
I would like to be the supporter of yours. Thank you for sharing such a nice article.
chaussures puma
puma speed cat
Nike Tn Chaussures
requin tn
nike shox
puma shoes
puma CAT
puma basket
puma speed
baskets puma
puma sport
puma femmes
puma shox r4 torch
nike air max requin
nike shox r3
shox rival r3
tn plus
chaussures shox
nike shox r4 torch
air max tn requin
nike tn femme
pas cher nike
tn chaussures
nike rift
nike shox nz
chaussures shox
nike shox rival
shox rival
chaussures requin
jeans online
cheap armani jeans
cheap G-star jeans
I like the side of the article, and very like your blog, to write well and hope to continue their efforts, we can see more of your articles. ed hardy clothes. After reading this article has strong feelings, the future will be Changlaikankan's.ed hardy swimwear. polo hoodies
ed hardy jeans
ed hardy
ed hardy clothing
ed hardy t-shirts
ed hardy clothes
ed-hardy.co.uk
ed hardy shirts
ed hardy mens
ed hardy clothes
ed hardy womens
ed hardy sunglasses
ed hardy swimwear
ed hardy Jeans
ed hardy hoodies
ed hardy bags
ed hardy trousers
ed hardy shoes
ed hardy sunglasses
ed hardy suits
ed
hardy
ed hardy dresses
ed hardy boots
ed hardy mens sweater
ed hardy womens cotton
ed hardy womens boots
Your article is very good.I like it very much.
Once upon a time, there was a mouse father.He wanted to marry his daughter to the greatest person in the world.But, who was the greatest person in the world?Oh!
puma ferrari shoes
cheap nike shoesThe sun! He must be the greatest person in the world.The mouse father went to talk to the sun."Hello! Mr. Sun.
puma shoes
ferrari shoes
I know you are the greatest person in the world.Would you marry my daughter?""What? I'm not the greatest person in the world. The greatest person is the cloud.If he comes out, I’ll be covered."
nike shox nz
Ugg Boots
The mouse father went to talk to the cloud. “Hello! Mr. Cloud. I know you are the greatest person in the world. Would you marry my daughter?”
nike 360 air max
nike shox shoes
“What? I’m not the greatest person in the world. The greatest person is the wind.If he comes out, I’ll be blown away.”
cheap puma shoes
puma drift cat
The mouse father went to talk to the wind. “Hello! Mr. Wind. I know you are the greatest person in the world.Would you marry my daughter?” “What? I’m not the greatest person in the world. The greatest person is the wall. If he comes out, I’ll be stopped.”
cheap nike shox
nike air max 360
The mouse father went to talk to the wall. “Hello! Mr. Wall. I know you are the greatest person in the world. Would you marry my daughter?” “What? I’m not the greatest person in the world. The greatest person is YOU, the mouse.” “The greatest person in the world is … mouse?” “Yes, the greatest person in the world is mouse. See? If mouse comes out, I’ll be bit!”
nike air max
pumas shoes
The mouse father was very happy. He finally knew mouse was the greatest person in the world. He would marry his daughter to the handsome mouse next door.
cheap jeans
cheap levis jeans
ed hardy jeans
$75 Replica Rolex Watches sale, Our site provides Rolex replica, replica Rolex Watches, replica breitling, replica Cartier, replica Omega, Tag Heuer Watches. . .more than 100 famous rolex brands"
rolex air king
rolex datejust
rolex day date
rolex daytona
rolex gmt
rolex submariner
rolex yachtmaster
a lange sohne watches
alain silberstein watches
bell ross watches
breguet watches
breitling watches
bvlgari watches
cartier watches
omega watches
patek philippe watches
ロレックスレプリカ
ロレックスコピー
Post a Comment