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Thursday, October 30, 2008

Closer to ZIRP, Liquidity Trap, Lost Decade,

“The door is wide open for further rate cuts or anything else that might help the economy. The implication is that we'll see another half-point cut in December, if the prospects for the economy remain poor.'' -Allen Sinai, Decision Economics

Fed Signals Door `Open' for Cutting Rates to Lowest on Record: “Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he's ready to cut interest rates to the lowest level on record should the central bank's actions fail to stem the deepening economic slump.

Policy makers said yesterday that “downside risks to growth remain” even after their half-point reduction in the main rate to 1 percent. The Fed dropped a reference in its statement to threats from inflation, projecting “levels consistent with price stability'' in coming quarters.”

Yesterday we got one step closer. Already the market is expecting another 50 basis point cut to 0.50% in December. (See: Really Scary Fed Charts, Why Bernanke Will Furiously Cut. This post has become a monthly series.)

“Bernanke is drawing on an academic career studying the failed efforts to prevent the Great Depression, and yesterday's shift indicates he's prepared to revisit his 2003 commitment as a governor to lower rates to zero percent if necessary. Should lending fail to revive by December, the central bank will probably cut by another half point, said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley.”

In Japan 2.0 I argued the following:

“We are heading for Japan v2.0.

Think ZERO percent interest rates and think DEFLATION. Think LOST DECADE. Think DEPRESSION. Now make all that GLOBAL.

That is what we have to look forward to.”

We are heading for a Liquidity Trap. Believe it. DEFLATION is Here, inflation is what we had.

This mess will take a long long time to sort itself out. Just like Japan had their Lost Decade, so to will America.

Related Posts:
Japan 2.0
Japan 2.0: Liquidity Trap
The Lost Decade
Stimulus Package: Does it Even Work
DEFLATION is Here
Lost Decade

The Really Scary Fed Charts Series:
1) Really Scary Fed Charts, Why Bernanke Will Furiously Cut
2) Fed CHANGES Really Scary Fed Charts
3) Really Scary Fed Charts: MARCH
4) Really Scary Fed Charts: APRIL
5) Really Scary Fed Charts: MAY, False Alarm?
6) Really Scary Fed Charts: JUNE, ‘Just’ 1% of GDP Now
7) Really Scary Fed Charts: JULY, More of the Same
8) Really Scary Fed Charts About to Get Crazy Scary
9) Really Scary Fed Charts: OCT, Now Crazy Scary

65 comments:

Anonymous said...

the question nobody has really answered is this: if leverage continues to be wrung from the system and govts continue to print money, where should you be? cash in the form of us currency, or commodities? if/when hyperinflation actually hits, do you want to be in stocks again?

EDC said...

anon,

same question here too..
likes of faber saying gold should preform well in any market.

I agree with deflation however if we have this excessive printing and inflation our currency (hoarded now but will it be forever?).

all assets go down, usd still reserve currency does that mean that gold will deflate against the dollar and all currencies? Isn't it at a high with other currencies?
Is the USD losing value now? will it reverse and get stronger??
Before we know it at the speed of these markets, we could see the fall like a rock, in a deflation environment but would gold prices be high with deflation and falling usd?

CONFUSED!?!?!?

Anonymous said...

just buy a surfboard and CHILL. The 'callers' need a vacation to think things through.

The answer is that, despite what MR. Bitrolff says, gold and silver will increase relative to the USD. He is drawing on falty logic. Yes, there will be deflation for a good period of time going forward in most asset classes, but cash will not always be king. because this and this and this we have this. not.

Anonymous said...

Like you, I am in the deflation camp. Like you, I believe that the USA has created Japan Mark 2. What I do not know is this - what happened to all the money that Japan pumped into its system in the Nineties? Did it lead to ANY inflation? Hyperinflation? If not, why not?

All help gratefull received!

dome

Anonymous said...

all the money the Japs were creating was going into the carry trade - most of it in the US bond market. Some of it into Asian Companies. All that looks threatening to unwind.

If deflation hits, all the capital of the world would be sucked into the US Bond market. Which means that all other currencies would crash against the USD like the Krona (Iceland). Which means that gold will rise modestly in all other currencies except the dollar. That way gold will perform well in any market - except the USA.

This will not be acceptable for all those foreigners whose local markets would come crashing down - mostly the Europeans, Russians would usurp the reserve currency status of the USD. at this point gold will skyrocket & the dollar will crash.

Anonymous said...

I wonder about the direction of mortgage rates. Recession and deflation suggest they go down, but credit concerns suggest rates, or at least standards, go up. Will concerns about long-term US gov debt, which seem to be putting a ceiling on long bonds, also impact mortgage rates, keeping them higher than would usually be the case during a recession?

kelly said...

anon 12:15 - Yen went to carry trade, I understand. Japanese were savers, too, which meant that in deflation, they didn't want to borrow and spend inside of Japan - hence no price inflation - Yen inflation was exported by the carry trade.

Dollars - we have no savings, so desperate people will borrow when the rates hit zero (after the criminals, er, banks are recapitalized/consolidated/ nationalized and start to loan again). Paulson, Bernanke are VERY CLEAR - Liquidity will resume, no matter the price. When it does, there will be LOTS of cash in the system. Foreign govt's/SWF's will ditch their dollar holdings (already happening on the D/L), and a perfect typhoon of repatriated dollars not worth spit in a bucket.
My take, anyway.

Shankar said...

I don't get you man.

What the hell do you mean by - 'We are heading for a Liquidity Trap'?

We are in it!

Adam Smith said...

Prepare for the New World Economic Order

Interest Rates [Credit] are the Cause and Consequence of the Explosion of Income/Wealth Disparities and, Hence, of the Inherent Instability ofthis Economy:

The Ominous Keynes' Liquidity Trap,
Origin of the Economic Chaos.

Everyone Need an Economy, Don't They?

There Is One Solution That Works:

A Credit Free, Free Market Economy:

The New World Economic Order.


The Only Goal of 1776 - Annuit Cœptis is to Implement It.

They Can Transfer Their Assets & Forget Their Liabilities.

Anyone Can Join But Still Needs to Ask for It.

http://www.17-76.net/

The Purpose Is to Provide Both a New Deal and a New Game.

It is NOT to Fix This Economy Which is Already Beyond Repair.

The Intention Is to Create a New Economy
With the Assets of the Old One Without its Liabilities.

Why Not Insure Against the Worst Case Scenario?

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